The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Octoberist]

There were some PT fanatics convinced that it would only make $500 million worldwide.

Haha okay.

 

[The Caped Knight]

‘Star Wars’ Posts Hefty $38M Wednesday, Projected To Hit $500M Sunday In Record 10 Days; ‘Big Short’ Grows

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wa...t-sisters-alvin-and-the-chipmunks-1201671905/

The Imperial March should be playing

 

[SomeOldGuy]

A 1% increase. Any increase, no matter how small, is remarkable considering the numbers in question. WW update:

@ERCboxoffice STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS zoomed past $750M+ worldwide yesterday w/ $765M total--$363M domestic, $402M int'l.

Will definitely go over $1 billion WW this weekend.

 

[The Caped Knight]

I'm going back for my third viewing tomorrow so let The Force rise

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

This could be close to Avatar DOM by January 3rd.

 

[Tymminator]

I'm going back for my third viewing tomorrow so let The Force rise

Me too.

 

[Iceman]

That is the 6th highest Wednesday ever but all the other films that beat it opened on that Wednesday! Star Wars is competitive on its 3rd weekday against big openers, even after its opening weekend has drained it of $247m!

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Oh much do you think BvS will make OW and WW by the end? I think the movie could make around avenger numbers of 200 OW and WW end up at around 1.6 billion.

Well I was kind of joking about TFA's 2nd weekend beating BvS OW.

I see BvS making AOU numbers OW, around 190 m.

WW I think BvS will make around 1.2 billion. Ditto for Civil War and Rogue One.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

you make it sound like you get a cut or something
just saying

Put through the translation machine comes out with, "stop being happy your favorite franchise is doing so well, bah humbug".

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Movie will be past $500m domestically and $1bil worldwide by the end of the weekend.

 

[Marvin]

Put through the translation machine comes out with, "stop being happy your favorite franchise is doing so well, bah humbug".

be happy all you please, not sure I said to stop.
The patent on that machine must read 'darthreadswhathewants'
the humbug was a nice addition i must say.

The difference between this thing making 2 billion and 4 billion means alot to execs(a great deal really), not so much fans is my point. Ergo the question. I suppose you answered.

 

[jokesonm3]

Well I was kind of joking about TFA's 2nd weekend beating BvS OW.

I see BvS making AOU numbers OW, around 190 m.

WW I think BvS will make around 1.2 billion. Ditto for Civil War and Rogue One.

It all depends on Competition, BvS has no major competition for a month until the release of The Jungle Book, plus the Fact that it's opening on easter 2016 gives it the formalua for a successful box office smash, it just needs to be good not great in the eyes of the critics, like about a minimum of 70% on RT and a score of A on Cinemascore in order to have good legs.

Just like SW7 which honestly had no competition whatsoever except for the chipmunks film.

You know ive always said:

Insane Hype + Good relase Date + no competition + generally positive reviews = Strong Box Office.

Plus a lot of films this year have past the billion dollar mark in less than a month:

Age of Ultron: 24 days to $1B

Furious 7: 17 days to $1B

Jurassic World: 13 days to $1B

And The Force Awakens easily passing the billion dollar mark in a week or less lol.

So yeah BvS has the tools for a successful billion dollar + film.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

be happy all you please, not sure I said to stop.
The patent on that machine must read 'darthreadswhathewants'
the humbug was a nice addition i must say.

The difference between this thing making 2 billion and 4 billion means alot to execs(a great deal really), not so much fans is my point. Ergo the question. I suppose you answered.

I actually don't know what you mean right here. Was I talking about this? I was talking about the potential size of the second weekend.

 

[jokesonm3]

Plus with an OW like $247M domestic, what Star Wars: The Force Awakens did is get more and more people interested in going to the theatres especially to see what else is going to be the next major 'event' film, i believe that next year in 2016 there will be a total of Three event films:

- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

- Captain America: Civil War

- Star Wars: Rogue One

Those three films have the potential to be as big as AOU, F7 & JW were this year.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

edit

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Plus with an OW like $247M domestic, what Star Wars: The Force Awakens did is get more and more people interested in going to the theatres especially to see what else is going to be the next major 'event' film, i believe that next year in 2016 there will be a total of Three event films:

- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

- Captain America: Civil War

- Star Wars: Rogue One

Those three films have the potential to be as big as AOU, F7 & JW were this year.

The problem for BvS is now TFA has set expectations. Many think it is really good, and the critics agree. If BvS gets the same reception as MoS, it will suffer.

I don't think JW or Minions caused a tremor in the box office that helped other films.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Devin Faraci: Star Wars The Force Awakens is fanfiction.


I told you, despite giving it a favorable review, he is gonna keep taking shots at it, just like TDK.

Oh I know. This isn't news to me. He is so obvious, it is painful.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Wrong thread.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Wrong thread.

No one would know if you didn't say anything.

 

[jokesonm3]

The problem for BvS is now TFA has set expectations. Many think it is really good, and the critics agree. If BvS gets the same reception as MoS, it will suffer.

I don't think JW or Minions caused a tremor in the box office that helped other films.

Yeah that's why i said that a minimum of 70% on RT would be good enough, anything more is just adding gravy.

 

[Marvin]

I actually don't know what you mean right here. Was I talking about this? I was talking about the potential size of the second weekend.

I was talking about mega records, weather they be the films totals or if it ends up in the top 10 whatever it was you ascribed.
Maybe I'd be the same if a blade movie was performing in such a manner who knows. But for the time being success just seems like success to me. That it beats avatar for instance doesn't actually change anything whatsoever. I like the movie and it's 'doing well' but again, maybe I'd need blade to do it before I could relate.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I was talking about mega records, weather they be the films totals or if it ends up in the top 10 whatever it was you ascribed.
Maybe I'd be the same if a blade movie was performing in such a manner who knows. But for the time being success just seems like success to me. That it beats avatar for instance doesn't actually change anything whatsoever. I like the movie and it's 'doing well' but again, maybe I'd need blade to do it before I could relate.

Oh, I agree with your general sentiment. My enjoyment of these records come after months of hearing about how less relevant Star Wars was in comparison with other fanboy properties. I fully admit this is a bit of gloating.

 

[InCali]

Hey, let's get real. We ALL suck at it. I want one person out there to tell me (without blushing) that they've pretty much nailed all their predictions.

I'm awful at it, but, on occasion, I get something right. Then I run around on these threads telling everybody how right I was because I hate feeling stupid all the time.

If anyone is worthy of getting called out on this one, it's Reek who said under 1B WW. It's liable to get near there in the US/Canada. Reek was about as accurate as I usually am......

Be warned....I really, REALLY suck at this. I used to be a statistician so you'd think I'd be at least halfway decent at this sort of thing, but.....sadly, no.

Right now, it's sitting at about 288M with 6 days to go. 4 of them are essentially holidays so that leaves Tuesday and Wednesday (which is essentially a Friday and a no school day).

So, say Tuesday comes in around 40M (which doesn't seem that unlikely), Wednesday could stay about the same and maybe even have a little bump. Then we come to Xmas eve which is a holiday for just about everyone (except for IT people who work at a bank), Xmas, and Sat/Sun.

Current - 288
Tuesday - 40
Wednesday - 40
Thursday - 40
Fri-Sun - 145 (about a 58% hold)

Total - 553

I think a typical drop for most big blockbusters for the second weekend would be around 50% (TA and JW), but there are so many advance sales and so many people appear to be going back and back and back again, that I see a better hold. When I went Saturday morning (5:15AM show), there were 50 year old men out there with their light sabers and Jedi uniforms on and they were going to a SW party after the movie (I went to breakfast at the Loew's Hotel). I'm a total sci-fi nutcase, but these people made me look like Ward Cleaver.

So, there you have it. The above is probably optimistic, but I told you I suck at this.

Actually, I've changed my mind for the next 24 hours. I am SOOOOO good at BO predictions that it defies logic. Everyone else just pales in comparison. I sort of feel like Donald Trump on steroids I'm so good and beautiful and, well, just HUGE!!!!

Pushing or over 400M in 7 days and over 550M by the end of the weekend. YOU heard it FIRST from ME. Thank you and you may send your contributions to me at any time. Just PM me and I will send you my secure offshore account. Thank you for your support.

 

[Marvin]

Oh, I agree with your general sentiment. My enjoyment of these records come after months of hearing about how less relevant Star Wars was in comparison with other fanboy properties. I fully admit this is a bit of gloating.

well at least your honest. Though I think the bragging rights and stuff doesn't really add much around these parts.

That being said there were a good amount of people that definitely should be eating crow. The incessant negativity, putting downs, and mines over yours, I suppose comes with it's well timed 'I told you so'.

I had a friend that thought I had no respect for 200mill when I suggested starwars had a shot. He cited that he never hears his friends talk about it and that no one cared. Mind you his only experience being the prequels. He was there marathoning like the rest come release. Now I sense he attributes much of this to disney marketing.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Actually, I've changed my mind for the next 24 hours. I am SOOOOO good at BO predictions that it defies logic. Everyone else just pales in comparison. I sort of feel like Donald Trump on steroids I'm so good and beautiful and, well, just HUGE!!!!

Pushing or over 400M in 7 days and over 550M by the end of the weekend. YOU heard it FIRST from ME. Thank you and you may send your contributions to me at any time. Just PM me and I will send you my secure offshore account. Thank you for your support.