The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[danoyse]

We have a group going from work tomorrow night. The IMAX at the theater a block away was already sold out, so we had to get tickets for another IMAX across town. It’s crazy.

 

[Iceman]

JW has fallen, Avatar is next:

Now that's just mean. t:

 

[InCali]

The thing with China though is from what I've heard the original trilogy is actually not very well known there as it never got an official release. The prequel trilogy is actually better known there.

So the huge nostalgia trip that's worked for much of the west won't be a big factor there.

I believe they are simply selling it there as another 3D spectacle.

So nobody can be sure just how big it will be.

Oh....I don't know about that. As the undisputed king of box office predictions I can guarantee you that TFA will break all BO records in China.

Strong is The Force in China and strong is the Disney marketing team....3, 4, 500 I see, but always in motion is the future.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm going to try to get my mom to see the film on Christmas day or the day after Christmas.

 

[Marvolo]

I've only watched the film twice but I paid for three tickets. I missed one of the showtimes I bought a ticket for.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Some credible sources over at BOT are saying 37 million for Monday

 

[Bruce Malone]

Oh....I don't know about that. As the undisputed king of box office predictions I can guarantee you that TFA will break all BO records in China.

Strong is The Force in China and strong is the Disney marketing team....3, 4, 500 I see, but always in motion is the future.

China is a weird market to predict. 2 years ago is someone had told you the 7th Fast and furious movie would become the all-time highest grosser in that country, people would think you were out there.

Like I mentioned the Chinese seem to have no real nostalgia attachment they'll jump on what they think is cool to them at the time whatever that may be.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Disney are a marketing machine and China loves big fun special effects movies so I'd be a little surprised if it did under say 200 million.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Some credible sources over at BOT are saying 37 million for Monday

Yeah, it's going to obliterate the Monday record, too. It'll be interesting to see if it gets a discount Tuesday bump.

 

[Black Narcissus]

 

[souvlaki]

Some credible sources over at BOT are saying 37 million for Monday

Just got bumped to 39-41 million over there.

 

[Super_Child]

t:

 

[Iceman]

Just got bumped to 39-41 million over there.

Oh nice. Best by a long way for Monday.

 

[InCali]

Just got bumped to 39-41 million over there.

That's just nuts. If that's true and it gets a Tuesday bump, this will probably be pushing 400M by the end of Thursday. If it comes in next weekend at anywhere near the mid 100M mark, Avatar is toast. Wednesday is the day before Xmas eve so a LOT of people can do what they want without thinking about work and Thursday is a holiday for a lot of people.

400M in 7 days????? Seriously? I think we need to start considering 1B US/Canada. It's not out of the question. Boy did Disney just nail the release date on this one or what?

I think Avatar DOM is toast anyway.....

 

[InCali]

I just realized something. TFA beat FFINO's DOM cumulative total.

Last Thursday.


And TFA (DOM) beat FFINO's WW cumulative total.

Last Saturday (By about 20M).


That didn't take long.......

 

[PacificBoy]

Disney are a marketing machine and China loves big fun special effects movies so I'd be a little surprised if it did under say 200 million.

Chinese industry insiders are predicting a minimum, a starting point really, of 200 million dollars. It's doing fantastic in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong, countries which Chinese audiences normally take a cue from. I read a bit of some Weibo chat and word of mouth is very good thus far. BB-8 is apparently a fan fave.

 

[SyntaxError]

Chinese industry insiders are predicting a minimum, a starting point really, of 200 million dollars. It's doing fantastic in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong, countries which Chinese audiences normally take a cue from. I read a bit of some Weibo chat and word of mouth is very good thus far. BB-8 is apparently a fan fave.

I've actually read that its underperforming in specifically those markets.

 

[Iceman]

I just realized something. TFA beat FFINO's DOM cumulative total.

Last Thursday.


And TFA (DOM) beat FFINO's WW cumulative total.

Last Saturday (By about 20M).


That didn't take long.......

Haha good spot.

 

[PacificBoy]

I've actually read that its underperforming in specifically those markets.

I think it's underperforming with respect to the record-breaking numbers in the west. Still posting solid numbers but facing stiff competition in the form of locally made movies. In Japan and Hong Kong there are the beloved franchises Yo-Kai Watch 2 and Ip Man 3 respectively. In Korea there's the big-budget The Himalayas.

 

[InCali]

I've actually read that its underperforming in specifically those markets.

I poked around and found it was doing very, very well in Japan (#1 in dollars, but I think another movie sold more tickets) and doing quite well in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Actually, it's not doing badly in South Korea either although that's the only place where it isn't #1 at the box office. The Himalayas is in the #1 slot there by about 800K.

 

[Sithborg]

That's just nuts. If that's true and it gets a Tuesday bump, this will probably be pushing 400M by the end of Thursday. If it comes in next weekend at anywhere near the mid 100M mark, Avatar is toast. Wednesday is the day before Xmas eve so a LOT of people can do what they want without thinking about work and Thursday is a holiday for a lot of people.

400M in 7 days????? Seriously? I think we need to start considering 1B US/Canada. It's not out of the question. Boy did Disney just nail the release date on this one or what?

I think Avatar DOM is toast anyway.....

Oh my. And it really shouldn't be hard to get a mid 100's this weekend. Roughly 50 million in presales were for this weekend. The insanity continues...

 

[Greens]

The movie is estimated to be at $611 million worldwide right now.

https://***********/boxofficemojo/status/679343175383711744

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@BoxOffice STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS took in an estimated $40.1M on Monday and has grossed $288.1M in 4 days domestically. #TheForceAwakens*

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS has set new all-time records for largest Monday gross and largest four-day domestic start. #TheForceAwakens*

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yep it's going to hit a billion in no time.

 

[Horhey]

Word of mouth is a powerful thing. Even my mom liked it and she usually falls asleep during these types of movies. No really, that's a big deal. She said that its what everyone is talking about at her job.