The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[I SEE SPIDEY]

How do you sound jealous??? Let me count the ways.

Since Jurassic Word broke the opening weekend record I have heard plenty of jealous whining from Marvel fanboys. I'm a DC fangirl, believe me I know jealous whining when I hear it.

Star Wars is going to keep the record for years and years and I'm fine with that.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

OK quit the fanboy wars. Star Wars has always been in a league of it's own. I thought this film very well could be the smash hit it turned out to be, and then again, I also thought it could flop as much as the Prequels. I'm very pleased that it seems to have satisfied most of the fanbase.

You came in here to pout about JW, and you want to stop the "fanboy wars". You literally came in here with a conspiracy theory, and really, really ridiculous one. This whole thing comes back to the fans of Marvel and DC talking down to Jurassic Park and now Star Wars.

By the way, I am not a prequel fan, but they did not flop. TPM is top 15 domestic, adjusted for inflation.

 

[Tony Stark]

I'd watch JW before I watched Avatar ever again. And while I am a big Avengers fan, it isn't a better film then JW imo. The only odd duck is Titanic, not because of its quality but because of its genre. It is a love story rolled into a disaster film. The others are all Sci-fi. Though if we are doing adjusted numbers, two of the top 3 right now would be Titanic and Gone with the Wind.

Well we're getting into opinions here, and I stated mine. Having said that, I'm so pleased that TFA kicked JW in it's stupid a$$ genetically modified T-Rex balls or whatever the hell that stupid thing was supposed to be. Only redeeming quality of that movie was Chris Pratt's charm.

Sorry to be so blunt but Hollywood is becoming so unoriginal, and JW is the worst offender on that front. I didn't care for the story in Avatar so much, but visually it was a event in film making history, which I would also count the original Jurassic Park as being.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The prequels were huge hits, I just didn't like them quality wise.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

How do you sound jealous??? Let me count the ways.

Since Jurassic Word broke the opening weekend record I have heard plenty of jealous whining from Marvel fanboys. I'm a DC fangirl, believe me I know jealous whining when I hear it.

Star Wars is going to keep the record for years and years and I'm fine with that.

Or it won't. You never know what is going to happen. Right now I am hoping the film crosses the $500m domestic by next Sunday. In which case, the domestic all time cross is certainly in play.

 

[Tony Stark]

How do you sound jealous??? Let me count the ways.

Since Jurassic Word broke the opening weekend record I have heard plenty of jealous whining from Marvel fanboys. I'm a DC fangirl, believe me I know jealous whining when I hear it.

Star Wars is going to keep the record for years and years and I'm fine with that.

Oh please. JW was a POS movie. I'm fine with Star Wars holding the record, I was fine with TDK breaking Spider-man 3's record. SM3 was a terrible film.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Well we're getting into opinions here, and I stated mine. Having said that, I'm so pleased that TFA kicked JW in it's stupid a$$ genetically modified T-Rex balls or whatever the hell that stupid thing was supposed to be. Only redeeming quality of that movie was Chris Pratt's charm.

Sorry to be so blunt but Hollywood is becoming so unoriginal, and JW is the worst offender on that front. I didn't care for the story in Avatar so much, but visually it was a event in film making history, which I would also count the original Jurassic Park as being.

*Looks at AV*

Did you just call something else unoriginal?

And JW is far more of a visual event film then say the Avengers was. Even if Colin poured Dawn all over it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Not everyone loved The Avengers you know. Not everyone thought The Avengers "deserved" the record. Deserves really has nothing to do with anything.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

Not everyone loved The Avengers you know.

Most loved the first one. Only fanboys loved the second.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I'd watch JW before I watched Avatar ever again.

I would watch Avatar a million times over JW. There is craft, passion and talent pouring out of Avatar that JW can't even begin to match.

 

[SyntaxError]

I don't even know how you'd go about fudging the numbers, when the official totals don't even come from the studio. At least I don't think they do.

Marvel fanboys thought the Avengers and now Civil War are as large as Star Wars. DC fans think BvS is as large as Star Wars. I don't see those predictions happening anymore. Things have gone quiet since the pre-sales came out.

Studio's publish the actuals. I'm not in any way saying that Universal fudged the actuals for Jurassic World. But it happens in Hollywood all the time. Numbers are moved around to create marketing buzz and grab Wall Street's attention.

We all know how Hollywood accounting works; studio execs move numbers around to make it seem like a movie is not profitable so they don't have to pay royalties. They can also blur the lines in box office receipts. Obviously they can't change it by massive margins like 5M, because industry experts follow estimates and can track APPROXIMATE numbers. But 1-2M is possible. All they need to do is take into account another hour of screenings, or add a few cents to a couple thousand tickets.

 

[Tony Stark]

I would watch Avatar a million times over JW. There is craft, passion and talent pouring out of Avatar that JW can't even begin to match.

This time 1000. JW represents the worst in movie making, trying to retread something based on nostalgia purely based on profit driven motives. Avatar was a revolution in movie making that we may not see again for a while.

I love Avengers, but even it can match Avatar on that level. There's a reason it was nominated for best picture even though the Academy normally hates those types of films.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Most loved the first one. Only fanboys loved the second.

I was apart of the minority when it came to the first film. Thought is was decent but nothing special. It took a full hour for anything to happen and I wasn't cool with that but most did dig it and good for them.

The sequel most definitely was not loved by the GA. It's reception was decent, nothing more and nothing less.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I would watch Avatar a million times over JW. There is craft, passion and talent pouring out of Avatar that JW can't even begin to match.

Totally fair Tacit Ronin. Personally, I am not a big fan of the leads or story, which automatically checks me out. I literally was cheering for the baddie to win in the theater. So it is not a great experience for me.

With JW, it hits my nostalgia buttons, and I like Pratt and Howard a lot. I don't find either to be good films, but I'll take the shorter one with dinos and actors I like.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Studio's publish the actuals. I'm not in any way saying that Universal fudged the actuals for Jurassic World. But it happens in Hollywood all the time. Numbers are moved around to create marketing buzz and grab Wall Street's attention.

We all know how Hollywood accounting works; studio execs move numbers around to make it seem like a movie is not profitable so they don't have to pay royalties. They can also blur the lines in box office receipts. Obviously they can't change it by massive margins like 5M, because industry experts follow estimates and can track APPROXIMATE numbers. But 1-2M is possible. All they need to do is take into account another hour of screenings, or add a few cents to a couple thousand tickets.

Creative accounting comes to paying people, not box office totals. You can't fudge them because others know what they are as well. Disney was low balling Star Wars on Sunday, and Deadline knew because others in the industry knew as well. That is why they were always standing firm with the mid-$240m number.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I was apart of the minority when it came to the first film. Thought is was decent but nothing special. It took a full hour for anything to happen and I wasn't cool with that but most did dig it and good for them.

The sequel most definitely was not loved by the GA. It's reception was decent, nothing more and nothing less.

I prefer AoU to the Avengers. That is just be a me thing though. TWS, Ant-Man and GotG at the Marvel movies I love though.

 

[SyntaxError]

Creative accounting comes to paying people, not box office totals. You can't fudge them because others know what they are as well. Disney was low balling Star Wars on Sunday, and Deadline knew because others in the industry knew as well. That is why they were always standing firm with the mid-$240m number.

But they don't have firm numbers. They make approximations. Thats why even when Sunday ended, before Disney published actuals, Deadline was still prediction 240-245. No one has full access to Disney's numbers apart from them. Industry can track but only make approximations. So studios fudging box office numbers can definitely happen. Not saying it happened in JW's case, but this is a very very grey industry.

 

[Tony Stark]

Not everyone loved The Avengers you know. Not everyone thought The Avengers "deserved" the record. Deserves really has nothing to do with anything.

Not saying everyone did. The critics fans overwhelmingly liked Avengers, Dark Knight, Avatar, Titanic, TFA.

JW is the odd duck because it was a financial success, but it wasn't even certified fresh on RT, the top critic review was a bare 60%.

Films like the aforementioned are event films where the critical reviews, fan reviews, and financial success all line up. JW has more in common with Independence Day, i.e. films that aren't very good, that happen to make a lot of money.

BTW, I'm not the first person on this thread to have said TFA is way more deserving of the record than JW.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I prefer AoU to the Avengers. That is just be a me thing though. TWS, Ant-Man and GotG at the Marvel movies I love though.

In some ways I prefer AOU and in some ways I don't. Still haven't seen Ant-Man babe but I agree about TWS, thought it was awesome.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Most loved the first one. Only fanboys loved the second.

If only fanboys enjoyed it, it wouldn't have made 1.4 billion.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

But they don't have firm numbers. They make approximations. Thats why even when Sunday ended, before Disney published actuals, Deadline was still prediction 240-245. No one has full access to Disney's numbers apart from them. Industry can track but only make approximations. So studios fudging box office numbers can definitely happen. Not saying it happened in JW's case, but this is a very very grey industry.

No one has the full numbers until the weekend is over, because you can't count totals before the time period is actually over. The estimates come into play based on previous trends. The reason why the Sat and Sunday numbers kept adjusting is because the matinee numbers were light.

 

[InCali]

t:

Or it won't. You never know what is going to happen. Right now I am hoping the film crosses the $500m domestic by next Sunday. In which case, the domestic all time cross is certainly in play.

I think that $500M by the end of Sunday is a guarantee. In fact, I'd put the over under at about $550M. Crunch the numbers and see what you come up with, but don't threaten Jedi bebes.......

And Geeze guys and gals.....relax. I'm gonna have to go home and drink a half bottle of wine after reading all of this so, well, thanks for arguing. Keep going and I may make it a bottle. t:

 

[Tony Stark]

I was apart of the minority when it came to the first film. Thought is was decent but nothing special. It took a full hour for anything to happen and I wasn't cool with that but most did dig it and good for them.

The sequel most definitely was not loved by the GA. It's reception was decent, nothing more and nothing less.

Now you're just making up things based on your opinion. RT has a higher audience rating for Age of Ultron than JW.

Again there are crappy films that make a lot of money (see Ninja Turtles), but the films that are critical and financial successes are the ones that stand out. And for the record AoU wouldn't "deserve" to be there either, because yes in general people didn't like it as much as the first, but to say it was "not loved by the GA" is fantasy. Hell I wouldn't even say that of JW, even though I thought it was a terrible film.

 

[SyntaxError]

No one has the full numbers until the weekend is over, because you can't count totals before the time period is actually over. The estimates come into play based on previous trends. The reason why the Sat and Sunday numbers kept adjusting is because the matinee numbers were light.

There is a reason why Disney is the one to release the actuals, and everyone is waiting on a number until they do so. Noone else has access to the full information. It can most definitely be manipulated.

 

[Tony Stark]

t:

I think that $500M by the end of Sunday is a guarantee. In fact, I'd put the over under at about $550M. Crunch the numbers and see what you come up with, but don't threaten Jedi bebes.......

And Geeze guys and gals.....relax. I'm gonna have to go home and drink a half bottle of wine after reading all of this so, well, thanks for arguing. Keep going and I may make it a bottle. t:

So what is the thought for the weekend? $115-130? I just can't tell how front loaded this is going to be, because I have a feeling this is going to get people who normally don't go see a movie more than once, to see this thing again, and again.