The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Not saying everyone did. The critics fans overwhelmingly liked Avengers, Dark Knight, Avatar, Titanic, TFA.

JW is the odd duck because it was a financial success, but it wasn't even certified fresh on RT, the top critic review was a bare 60%.

Films like the aforementioned are event films where the critical reviews, fan reviews, and financial success all line up. JW has more in common with Independence Day, i.e. films that aren't very good, that happen to make a lot of money.

BTW, I'm not the first person on this thread to have said TFA is way more deserving of the record than JW.

I'd take sexist dumb as hell JW over overlong Sam Worthlesston lead Pocahontas in Space any day of the week, no matter what Rotten Tomatoes collection of critics say.

 

[InCali]

Now you're just making up things based on your opinion. RT has a higher audience rating for Age of Ultron than JW.

Again there are crappy films that make a lot of money (see Ninja Turtles), but the films that are critical and financial successes are the ones that stand out. And for the record AoU wouldn't "deserve" to be there either, because yes in general people didn't like it as much as the first, but to say it was "not loved by the GA" is fantasy. Hell I wouldn't even say that of JW, even though I thought it was a terrible film.

Don't burn me at the stake, but I liked AoU better than TA. I didn't like the villain quite as much, but thought the character development was way better and liked the story. I watched it again the other night and liked it better than I did the first time.

I thought the 2 best things about JW were the two leads. I wanted to strangle the kids and wished they'd gotten eaten after taking off on their little expedition. I thought the movie was okay and Pratt/Howard made it good.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I didn't say people didn't like Age of Ultron, I said that it wasn't loved and I don't believe it was. I don't even see people talking about Age of Ultron anymore, not to love on it or even to hate it. It was a massive hit but it just came and went as far as pop culture is concerned.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I wonder how much Marvel spoiling their slate has to do with that. Civil War is far more interesting on paper. AOU was like a minor diversion.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

t:

I think that $500M by the end of Sunday is a guarantee. In fact, I'd put the over under at about $550M. Crunch the numbers and see what you come up with, but don't threaten Jedi bebes.......

And Geeze guys and gals.....relax. I'm gonna have to go home and drink a half bottle of wine after reading all of this so, well, thanks for arguing. Keep going and I may make it a bottle. t:

I like Disney like to low ball. Also, these numbers are already unprecedented, so it gets kind of hard. Do you predict normal trends, for for TFA to continue to outpace logic and reason.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

There is a reason why Disney is the one to release the actuals, and everyone is waiting on a number until they do so. Noone else has access to the full information. It can most definitely be manipulated.

How can it be manipulated? Please explain. Because that would mean the numbers released, which is given to the Studios can be manipulated, which they can't. Disney does not tally their own numbers. They don't have someone from Disney work at each theater in the chain counting their money. Though maybe the do and I am completely out of the loop.

 

[InCali]

So what is the thought for the weekend? $115-130? I just can't tell how front loaded this is going to be, because I have a feeling this is going to get people who normally don't go see a movie more than once, to see this thing again, and again.

Be warned....I really, REALLY suck at this. I used to be a statistician so you'd think I'd be at least halfway decent at this sort of thing, but.....sadly, no.

Right now, it's sitting at about 288M with 6 days to go. 4 of them are essentially holidays so that leaves Tuesday and Wednesday (which is essentially a Friday and a no school day).

So, say Tuesday comes in around 40M (which doesn't seem that unlikely), Wednesday could stay about the same and maybe even have a little bump. Then we come to Xmas eve which is a holiday for just about everyone (except for IT people who work at a bank), Xmas, and Sat/Sun.

Current - 288
Tuesday - 40
Wednesday - 40
Thursday - 40
Fri-Sun - 145 (about a 58% hold)

Total - 553

I think a typical drop for most big blockbusters for the second weekend would be around 50% (TA and JW), but there are so many advance sales and so many people appear to be going back and back and back again, that I see a better hold. When I went Saturday morning (5:15AM show), there were 50 year old men out there with their light sabers and Jedi uniforms on and they were going to a SW party after the movie (I went to breakfast at the Loew's Hotel). I'm a total sci-fi nutcase, but these people made me look like Ward Cleaver.

So, there you have it. The above is probably optimistic, but I told you I suck at this.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Christmas is the biggest movie day of the year, plus roughly half of the pre-sale tickets are for this upcoming weekend. It is going to break the second weekend record rather easily imo. But it getting close to $150m seems a stretch. I think $130m would be a safer bet.

For these mid-week days, Wednesday and Thursdays are usually significantly weaker then Monday and Tuesdays.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

What the hell, I'm going to go crazy and predict 150mil second weekend. I don't really think it's going to hit that number but I'm predicting it anyway.

 

[Tymminator]

I loved Avengers, and for Jurrasic World I thought it was OK and was shocked it took off like it did, but I was still happy about it as I love Pratt as he seems like such a cool dude and I want to see him successful.

As far as money made its always fun to see how much a movie you enjoyed makes especially comic based ones, but for me the biggest thing is PLEASE have it make enough that it can have sequels (as long as the story warrants it having a sequel).

What the hell, I'm going to go crazy and predict 150mil second weekend. I don't really think it's going to hit that number but I'm predicting it anyway.

Yeah, put me down for that as well.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I loved Avengers, and for Jurrasic World I thought it was OK and was shocked it took off like it did, but I was still happy about it as I love Pratt a she see alike such a cool dude I want to see him successful.

As far as money made its always fun to see how much a movie you enjoyed makes especially comic based ones, but for me the biggest thing is PLEASE have it. make enough that it can have sequels (a slog as the story warrants it having a sequel).




Yeah, put me down for that as well.

That should be the only thing that matters to fans, as it actually effects whether the story you love will continue or not.

 

[Sithborg]

$150 sounds good to me as well.

$500 million domestically after two weekends? Insanity. This is fun.

 

[DKDetective]

How can it be manipulated? Please explain. Because that would mean the numbers released, which is given to the Studios can be manipulated, which they can't. Disney does not tally their own numbers. They don't have someone from Disney work at each theater in the chain counting their money. Though maybe the do and I am completely out of the loop.

Not to mention the **** Disney could in with the SEC by messing around with their financial numbers as a publicly traded company. That is what securities fraud is all about.

 

[Mysteryman]

How am I jealous? it's not my accomplishment, it's someone else's. But of the top grossing films: Avatar, Titanic, Jurassic World, Avengers, Dark Knight and now SW:TFA, the odd duck in that group is JW. It's an average film that isn't very spectacular or memorable.

for me, the odd duck in that group will always be Avatar.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah I agree. If the film I like makes enough for sequels, then it did well enough for me.

So after 4 ish days TFA is Abrams highest grossing movie in North America beating out Star Trek's 257mil and of course it's his highest grossing movie worldwide. It beat Into Darkness 450ishmil opening weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Not to mention the **** Disney could in with the SEC by messing around with their financial numbers as a publicly traded company. That is what securities fraud is all about.

Yeah, this is the most valid point so far.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

for me, the odd duck in that group will always be Avatar.

It makes perfect sense the first movie to present a totally photorealsitic imaginary world with nigh-photorealistic aliens seen through the best use of stereoscopic 3D would warrant such a high grossing film.

 

[Sithborg]

That should be the only thing that matters to fans, as it actually effects whether the story you love will continue or not.

It gets particularly annoying in the X forums. Between the "fans" that say it should be a billion dollar franchise to the marvellites gloating about box office. To the fanatics who are over confident about it. I have no illusions about how well Apocalypse will do.

Personally, I'm fascinated about the response if BvS or Civil War doesn't break a billion. I seem to remember being entertained by the MOS thread...

 

[InCali]

Christmas is the biggest movie day of the year, plus roughly half of the pre-sale tickets are for this upcoming weekend. It is going to break the second weekend record rather easily imo. But it getting close to $150m seems a stretch. I think $130m would be a safer bet.

For these mid-week days, Wednesday and Thursdays are usually significantly weaker then Monday and Tuesdays.

$150 sounds good to me as well.

$500 million domestically after two weekends? Insanity. This is fun.

First off, $130 means about a 48% drop. JW had a 49% drop and I think TFA will do better in terms of %age drop; esp with Xmas and all the advance sales. 150M would be about a 40% drop. That seems high to me.

$500??? It's going to blow by 500M after 2 weekends. I can almost guarantee that (but, again, I suck at this).

 

[Tacit Ronin]

It gets particularly annoying in the X forums. Between the "fans" that say it should be a billion dollar franchise to the marvellites gloating about box office. To the fanatics who are over confident about it. I have no illusions about how well Apocalypse will do.

Personally, I'm fascinated about the response if BvS or Civil War doesn't break a billion. I seem to remember being entertained by the MOS thread...

I think they both will. And breaking a billion is no longer some great milestone anyways.

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

It gets particularly annoying in the X forums. Between the "fans" that say it should be a billion dollar franchise to the marvellites gloating about box office. To the fanatics who are over confident about it. I have no illusions about how well Apocalypse will do.

Personally, I'm fascinated about the response if BvS or Civil War doesn't break a billion. I seem to remember being entertained by the MOS thread...

I don't think BVS or Apocalypse are going to be as successful as people seem to think. Especially apocalypse. I never assumed Civil War was gonna be a record breaker but it seems more like the Avengers sequel everyone craved even though it's a cap movie, so who knows?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah I agree. If the film I like makes enough for sequels, then it did well enough for me.

So after 4 ish days TFA is Abrams highest grossing movie in North America beating out Star Trek's 257mil and of course it's his highest grossing movie worldwide. It beat Into Darkness 450ishmil opening weekend.

Well deserved for JJ. Another critical and financial success for that mediocre director.

And don't worry SPIDEY, we will see that MoS sequel someday.

It gets particularly annoying in the X forums. Between the "fans" that say it should be a billion dollar franchise to the marvellites gloating about box office. To the fanatics who are over confident about it. I have no illusions about how well Apocalypse will do.

Personally, I'm fascinated about the response if BvS or Civil War doesn't break a billion. I seem to remember being entertained by the MOS thread...

The X forums are quite unique. No other boards are quite like it, in both good and not so good ways.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I don't think BVS or Apocalypse are going to be as successful as people seem to think. Especially apocalypse. I never assumed Civil War was gonna be a record breaker but it seems more like the Avengers sequel everyone craved even though it's a cap movie, so who knows?

I thought the trailer went out its way to portray the fact that it's TWS sequel in tone and look. Not Avengers 2.5

 

[DarthSkywalker]

First off, $130 means about a 48% drop. JW had a 49% drop and I think TFA will do better in terms of %age drop; esp with Xmas and all the advance sales. 150M would be about a 40% drop. That seems high to me.

$500??? It's going to blow by 500M after 2 weekends. I can almost guarantee that (but, again, I suck at this).

Should clear $100m over the next three days, and then it wouldn't only need $110m weekend to past $500m. It will do it, easily.

 

[Sithborg]

First off, $130 means about a 48% drop. JW had a 49% drop and I think TFA will do better in terms of %age drop; esp with Xmas and all the advance sales. 150M would be about a 40% drop. That seems high to me.

$500??? It's going to blow by 500M after 2 weekends. I can almost guarantee that (but, again, I suck at this).

Just look at the drops the Hobbit movies had between the weekend before and the weekend after Christmas.