The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

The real question is can it take down Titanic's 98 days to beat the $500m mark.

 

[InCali]

I expect small drops every successive day ahead of a HUGE Xmas Day. Xmas Eve I think a lot of theaters close early.

I did not know that they close early on the 24th. That would change my opinion.

EDIT: Did some checking around and the premium theaters in my area are all open late. All good seats at the TCL Chinese (seats just under 1000) are gone for the 24th. Every IMAX show on the 24th is at least halfway sold out with pre-sales except the last (10pmish) show. It's about 1/3 full. That does not include any walkups of course........

 

[SomeOldGuy]

The movie made 40mil on Monday not 8mil, an increase was never in the cards.

I never really thought it was, but this film has been so unpredictable that i wasn't ruling it out.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I never really thought it was, but this film has been so unpredictable that i wasn't ruling it out.

I understand.

 

[InCali]

The real question is can it take down Titanic's 98 days to beat the $500m mark.

Yeah....we'll have to wait and see on that one. It looks like it's going to be close (if you multiply by 10).

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's going to easily reach 500 million before Titanic did. Jurassic World has the fastest to 500 mil record by the way. It did 500mil in 17 days, followed by Avengers in 23 days, Avatar in 32 days and TDK in 45 days. Titanic took 98 days to reach 500 million.

 

[InCali]

It's going to easily reach 500 million before Titanic did. Jurassic World has the fastest to 500 mil record by the way. It did 500mil in 17 days, followed by Avengers in 23 days, Avatar in 32 days and TDK in 45 days. Titanic took 98 days to reach 500 million.

I'm pretty sure he was joking.....

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm pretty sure he was joking.....

Okay. You know how humor sometimes doesn't translate online.

 

[InCali]

It's going to easily reach 500 million before Titanic did. Jurassic World has the fastest to 500 mil record by the way. It did 500mil in 17 days, followed by Avengers in 23 days, Avatar in 32 days and TDK in 45 days. Titanic took 98 days to reach 500 million.

This will be JW by at LEAST 7 days....maybe 8.

 

[smappy45]

Study suggests Star Wars: The Force Awakens could be huge in China
http://www.theguardian.com/film/201...wars-the-force-awakens-could-be-huge-in-china

I will try to be more optimistic for the overseas number. To think of it, Star Wars IS heavily influenced by eastern culture. Not only the samurai code and honor, but it has chinese wuxia elements as well. I have a list of plot and characters' similarities between Star Wars and China's the Condor Heroes trilogy.

I hope it will break a new record there.

 

[InCali]

Man, this movie sure got in the black fast.....even not counting merchandising. I was reading a story about a guy who was selling Star Wars ice cream. I think he said he sold more in 1 week than the did the entire year.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

This will be JW by at LEAST 7 days....maybe 8.

This movie is a beast.

 

[InCali]

This movie is a beast.

BOM is saying that if it follows an Avatar like scenario, it will be at about 580M by the end of the week (Edit; should be "weekend"). I don't expect that because Avatar had such lower numbers.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah....we'll have to wait and see on that one. It looks like it's going to be close (if you multiply by 10).

Not even if you mutliply by 10 t:

x14 would be a nailbiter though!

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

BOM is saying that if it follows an Avatar like scenario, it will be at about 580M by the end of the week. I don't expect that because Avatar had such lower numbers.

Yeah an Avatar like scenario seems far fetched because we are dealing with bigger numbers.

 

[Iceman]

If it followed the Avatar model all the way it would be doing over $2B domestic.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

I hope this movie crosses 3 billion.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

WW update:

Overseas, Star Wars: The Force Awakens took in an estimated $41.3 million on Tuesday. That brings the film's overseas total to $364.0 million and current global total to $689.4 million.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/latest-new...73m-five-day-start-is-a-record-breaking-3254m

 

[Iceman]

What were the overseas dailies for comparable films? Guess it's a bit difficult to compare directly with certain (major) territories not open for each different film at any point in time early in the run.

 

[InCali]

I hope this movie crosses 3 billion.

Seems unlikely at this point as it would need some incredible legs OS and DOM. I'm not ruling out anything though. The next couple of weeks will tell us a lot. China would need to go nuts and it would have to hold really, really well in places like Japan, Germany, Spain, UK, France, etc.

I think it has a shot at approaching 1B DOM and that is quite a feat.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah I think it's doing more than 2 and less than $3B. The overseas without China is only extremely good at the moment, not mindblowing like the domestic. And it would need to put up numbers that are as big a surprise as the domestic (which would mean it being about double the domestic for a 66% split of the total) to be shooting for 3B (made up of roughly 1B dom 2B overseas). At the moment without China the domestic and overseas grosses are not far enough apart.

 

[InCali]

Yeah I think it's doing more than 2 and less than $3B. The overseas without China is only extremely good at the moment, not mindblowing like the domestic. And it would need to put up numbers that are as big a surprise as the domestic (which would mean it being about double the domestic for a 66% split of the total) to be shooting for 3B (made up of roughly 1B dom 2B overseas). At the moment without China the domestic and overseas grosses are not far enough apart.

The thing about Avatar is that it just kept on going and going and going.......TFA will have bigger fall offs at the beginning, but those "could" start to level out at around Avatar numbers. In that case, TFA would have an advantage because of how much stronger it started; although I'm not sure that it started stronger all over the world.

I think it has a legitimate shot at 2.2-2.5b. Those are wild numbers. I think it will pass Titanic WW....without a re-release of TFA.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Honestly China could easily be the great equalizer. We have no idea what it will do in China. The film could gross "only" 200 mil or it could be a record breaker and make 400-500mil, we will just have to wait and see.

 

[InCali]

Honestly China could easily be the great equalizer. We have no idea what it will do in China. The film could gross "only" 200 mil or it could be a record breaker and make 400-500mil, we will just have to wait and see.

True. Right now, China is the great (big) unknown. if it catches on there, all bets are off.

 

[Iceman]

A difference of $200m in China's bottom and top end is not enough as even Avatar missed $3B by more than that amount. For it to count as sufficiently crazy in that one market to support the move to $3B total it would need more than $400m. If TFA gets to $1B domestic it needs to do around $1.6B outside of US and China (and that's assuming US and China can get to $1B and $400m respectively) which is the real challenge.

Agreed InCali, at some stage it can move on to a later part of the Avatar model and if at that point it is ahead by X amount it will likely stay ahead by roughly X amount. Just hope that that X is $200m plus.