The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Greens]

Box Office Mojo ‏@boxofficemojo
Disney is estimating a $37.3M Tues for #StarWars, a new Tues record, plus $41.3M int'l for a global cume of $689.4M. Actuals coming soon.

 

[Iceman]

Excellent!

 

[InCali]

Box Office Mojo ‏@boxofficemojo
Disney is estimating a $37.3M Tues for #StarWars, a new Tues record, plus $41.3M int'l for a global cume of $689.4M. Actuals coming soon.

That dratted mouse is low balling us again. I guess they need to keep on saying "Wow. It did even better than even WE thought it would."

EDIT: Or not......

 

[mclay18]

Variety predicts that TFA is projected to make $130M-$180M in its second weekend. That would the drop a relatively light 27-47% compared to opening weekend.

http://variety.com/2015/film/box-of...star-wars-daddys-home-point-break-1201667092/

 

[InCali]

Variety predicts that TFA is projected to make $130M-$180M in its second weekend. That would the drop a relatively light 27-47% compared to opening weekend.

http://variety.com/2015/film/box-of...star-wars-daddys-home-point-break-1201667092/

How very brave of them. I can't imagine anyone else going out on such a thin limb.

I predict between 100 and 200M. t:

 

[Asteroid-Man]

Guys... I think this is gonna cross $1b worldwide before the end of the year.

 

[JOE]

Guys... I think this is gonna cross $1b worldwide before the end of the year.

This would be fantastic! What's the record? 12 days?

 

[Tymminator]

Guys... I think this is gonna cross $1b worldwide before the end of the year.

It would not surprise me, this movie is a freaking monster.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

13. Jurassic World.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Guys... I think this is gonna cross $1b worldwide before the end of the year.

It is going to do it by next Monday. t:

 

[Iceman]

40th all time domestic now.

 

[jmc]

Variety predicts that TFA is projected to make $130M-$180M in its second weekend. That would the drop a relatively light 27-47% compared to opening weekend.

http://variety.com/2015/film/box-of...star-wars-daddys-home-point-break-1201667092/

Yikes, this could conceivably make more than the likes of Civil War and BvS in its second week. Holy cow.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Box office predicts $163 million this weekend...wowza.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_s...five-new-wide-releases-over-christmas-weekend

Also this:

Thanks in large part to Star Wars: The Force Awakens, BoxOffice projects this weekend's top ten films will total $275.5 million. That would represent the second largest unadjusted top ten total of all-time, behind only the $302.7 million top ten total of last weekend. The projected top ten total for this weekend would also represent the largest unadjusted top ten Christmas weekend total ever. The current top ten Christmas weekend record is the $255.2 million top ten total of December 25 - 27, 2009, which was led by the $75.6 million second weekend take of Fox's Avatar.

This weekend's projected top ten performance would represent a 54 percent jump over the $178.5 million top ten total of the same weekend last year, which was led by the $40.9 million second weekend take of Warner's The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies and also saw the $31.1 million debut of Disney's Into the Woods and the $30.6 million start of Universal's Unbroken.

 

[Iceman]

These weekend predictions are unbelievable.

 

[Bruce Malone]

The real question is can it take down Titanic's 98 days to beat the $500m mark.

I know you're joking but I don't think any film will ever again touch how many actual tickets Titanic sold.

Even un-adjusted an almost 20 year old movie is still the #2 box-office film of all-time.

For anyone who can remember the Titanic phenomena, it was bigger than TFA and Avatar.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Yeah.. this 2nd weekend is definitely beating BvS' opening Weekend. I thought I was overestimating with 160+ million, but looks like 175 mil will be the median going in.

 

[jmc]

$163m is about a 35% drop. If that were to continue the next week you could be looking at a third weekend of around $105m.

 

[Drizzle]

For anyone who can remember the Titanic phenomena, it was bigger than TFA and Avatar.

Star Wars as a whole is on a larger scale than Titanic in pop culture consciousness. I don't remember ever seeing Campbell's Soup Titanic tie-ins. Besides, Titanic's box office longevity stemmed from female audiences going to see it over and over again for Leonardo DiCaprio in a time before Tumblr.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Star Wars as a whole is on a larger scale than Titanic in pop culture consciousness. I don't remember ever seeing Campbell's Soup Titanic tie-ins. Besides, Titanic's box office longevity stemmed from female audiences going to see it over and over again for Leonardo DiCaprio in a time before Tumblr.

Star Wars is a whole franchise it's hard to compare to one movie. I think a lack of product tie-ins makes the success of Titanic even more unlikely.

Either way I'm just referring to the period I remember for literally almost a year one movie seemed to dominate the entire box office. That would be unheard of now and the closest to that seemed to have been Avatar. Remember before the recent re-release this movie made 1.8 billion dollars at a time when I believe no movie had ever cracked 1 billion.

SW7 is going to make a lot of money but in a much more condensed period, by March at least the box-office focus will fully be on BvS.

 

[Iceman]

I know you're joking but I don't think any film will ever again touch how many actual tickets Titanic sold.

Even un-adjusted an almost 20 year old movie is still the #2 box-office film of all-time.

For anyone who can remember the Titanic phenomena, it was bigger than TFA and Avatar.

It was the biggest I've ever seen too, but remember we don't know what will happen with TFA yet. We're just assuming that it will have legs that aren't too crazy and will fit within the definition of a very leggy winter mega-blockbuster with little competition rather than something alien that never dies! But who knows. At this stage people were no wiser to the chances of Avatar and Titanic turning into what they did and there is a lot more repeat viewing left to go for this thing than the likes of Avengers or Jurassic World could have dreamed of. Once we see TFA have some human weekend drops then we can call off the Titanic chase but its too early to make assumptions based on its first few days in which it couldn't have done any more.

Titanic also came out in a different era where many things were different in the movie industry. I don't think it would have the same impact today. It wouldn't do its 1997 box office multiplied by its inflation coefficient for eg.

Anyway your point is well taken, I'm not here to downplay one freak against another!

 

[Iceman]

]

$163m is about a 35% drop. If that were to continue the next week you could be looking at a third weekend of around $105m.

This thing is cheating! Trying to break the 2nd weekend record with its 3rd weekend!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah.. this 2nd weekend is definitely beating BvS' opening Weekend. I thought I was overestimating with 160+ million, but looks like 175 mil will be the median going in.

Could be beating Civil War's opening to.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Could be beating Civil War's opening to.

Avengers and AoU's OW are at least safe!

 

[Sithborg]

Oh god, the rage and tears would be glorious if that happened.

Of course, there will be those that truly thought Apocalypse could beat it as well.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Oh god, the rage and tears would be glorious if that happened.

Of course, there will be those that truly thought Apocalypse could beat it as well.

I would love to meet those people.