The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Vincanws]

He got a lot of shares in Disney as part of the deal so he profits if they got a good deal on Lucasfilm too.

Interesting that not only were they good enough to sell to but good enough to possess shares from those "white slavers" as he put it on Charlie Rose. Got that, I'm just glad George has got his head on straight.

 

[Iceman]

Haha, good point!

 

[Brem]

A war always breaks out once someone says they want PT ships in a miniature game I play. Very nasty.

Though, I am trying to pound into some people's heads that you don't do the numbers this movie is doing purely on nostalgia. People clearly like the movie.

I just don't get it, myself. I know I find it tiring seeing article after article putting down the prequels, or an article unrelated to but is about Star Wars the comments fall into put downs etc.

But in the end I just stay out of it. Let people say what they want, and I still enjoy it my own way. And I love Force Awakens, and am happy to see it doing so well. It's funny really, because there's already that division that is there between people who like the prequels and originals with The Force Awakens. I get the feeling the pattern will come full circle.

 

[Erzengel]

I don't hate the Prequels. There's a lot of stuff that I liked about it.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I don't hate the Prequels. There's a lot of stuff that I liked about it.

Honestly, based off first impressions, I liked Revenge of the Sith better than this film myself. We'll see what happens after repeat viewings.

Right now I would rank them in three tiers.

Tier 1 (All-Time Classics) - A New Hope, Empire Strikes Back, Return of the Jedi
Tier 2 (Good, Not Great) - Revenge of the Sith, The Force Awakens
Tier 3 (Mediocre) - The Phantom Menace, Attack of the Clones

I didn't outright hate any of them. Even The Phantom Menace is worlds better than something like Fant4stic or The Amazing Spider-Man 2.

 

[Erzengel]

TBH I'd put Duel of the Fates score on par with the Main Theme or the Imperial March.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The Force Theme, The Imperial March, Han Solo and the Princess, The Throne Room, Rey's Theme, The Jedi Steps, Victory Celebration, Yoda and the Force, The Rebel Fleet, and The Clash of Lightsabers are my favorite pieces of Star Wars music.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

What's the theme that plays during the final Luke/Vader fight in ROTJ after Vader threatens to go after Leia? I absolutely love that one.

 

[Snow Queen]

TBH I'd put Duel of the Fates score on par with the Main Theme or the Imperial March.

I wouldn't put them on par personally, but not too far behind. I think the best track from the prequels though was Across the Stars.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What's the theme that plays during the final Luke/Vader fight in ROTJ after Vader threatens to go after Leia? I absolutely love that one.

"The Dark Side Beckons".

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I wouldn't put them on par personally, but not too far behind. I think the best track from the prequels though was Across the Stars.

It is quite beautiful.

 

[MrMaooz]

What's the theme that plays during the final Luke/Vader fight in ROTJ after Vader threatens to go after Leia? I absolutely love that one.

Followed with the wide shot of them fighting with that haunting music...

 

[spiderman2]

Any Friday numbers yet? Also it sounds like the movie should be at about 1.4 billion WW after today. So with the movie coming out a week from tomorrow in china how much do you guys think the movie will be up by the end of jan 8 the day before it comes out in china? My guess is that after jan 8 going into its china release that the movie will be at 1.7 billion.

 

[spiderman2]

Followed with the wide shot of them fighting with that haunting music...

Gives me chills ever time!

 

[spiderman2]

The Force Theme, The Imperial March, Han Solo and the Princess, The Throne Room, Rey's Theme, The Jedi Steps, Victory Celebration, Yoda and the Force, The Rebel Fleet, and The Clash of Lightsabers are my favorite pieces of Star Wars music.

Is that all? I don't even know how I could give a like top music list from star wars because there are to many great ones. I have also only seen episode 1 and 2 twice each because I hate those movies so much so I don't remember any of the music from those.

 

[spiderman2]

Honestly, based off first impressions, I liked Revenge of the Sith better than this film myself. We'll see what happens after repeat viewings.

Right now I would rank them in three tiers.

Tier 1 (All-Time Classics) - A New Hope, Empire Strikes Back, Return of the Jedi
Tier 2 (Good, Not Great) - Revenge of the Sith, The Force Awakens
Tier 3 (Mediocre) - The Phantom Menace, Attack of the Clones

I didn't outright hate any of them. Even The Phantom Menace is worlds better than something like Fant4stic or The Amazing Spider-Man 2.

On my first viewing I like sith more then force awakens but second time I liked force awakens much more then the first time and now I like force more. I also love amazing spider man 2 though lol. So to me saying phantom menace is better then amazing spider man 2 is just lol.

Tier 1 Amazing( Return of the jedi, Force awakens)
Tier 2 great( Empire strikes back)
Tier 3 really good but not great( Sith, New hope)
Tier 4 way worse and 2 of the worst movies I have seen( Episode 2, episode 1)

 

[spiderman2]

Back in June, Morgan Stanley broke the costs down thusly:

On the cost side he figures the movie production will run $423 million — including $200 million for the film, $98 million from profit participations, and $125 million to make and distribute home videos. Print and ad costs subtract $175 million for the movie, and $40 million for the home video.

http://deadline.com/2015/06/star-wars-vii-third-highest-grossing-film-forecast-1201452210/

Usually films are considered to hit profitability at 2.5 to 3 times production budget (which would be the $200 million) but even if you use the whole $423 million figure it's still already in the black. And then there's this from the same link:

Disney’s also poised to take a larger than average slice of the theatrical sales pie. The studio typically splits the proceeds in half with domestic theaters. But for SW “we expect Disney retains 55-60% of domestic box office receipts and 40-45% of the international take,” Swinburne says.

Just using the lower end of both projections, as of yesterday that gives The Mouse $358 million from domestic and $271 million from international for a total take of $629 million.

tl;dr Disney is making a killing.

That is interesting and even if you take the high number of 423 million that would mean the movie would need to then make about 1.269 billion to break even but that is with the cost for home video and such and the movie has already made a little more then that and that is with like another month or so of boxoffice and with out the DVD, Bluray sales yet.

 

[spiderman2]

Not sure if I would necessarily call it surprising. Universal had 26 films and Disney only had 15 and it was only a $150m difference.

That is interesting but also shows how big Disney is I mean 11 less movies and only $150 million less and part of that is only because star wars came out late part of 2015 so it is not done making all of its money yet. What about WW though?

 

[spiderman2]

Turns out the NYE total was a record breaker too:

Disney's Star Wars: The Force Awakens took in an estimated $22.93 million on Thursday to dominate the daily box office for a 14th consecutive day. The blockbuster seventh installment of the Star Wars franchise easily set a new record for the largest New Year's Eve gross of all-time, as it topped the previous $14.74 million New Year's Eve record take of Avatar by 56 percent.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/latest-new...ome-2-with-588m-the-hateful-eight-5-with-315m

Is there a record this movie has not broken lol.

Universal had an amazing year. Both Furious 7 and Jurassic World made over 350 million domestic (with Jurassic World making an eye popping 650+mil) and both made over 1.5 billion worldwide. Not to mention surprise hits like Straight Outta Compton and not so surprise smashes like Minions.

Yeah 3 movies that made around 1.5-1.7 billion WW and one that made like 1.2 and some another ones that while where not has big still did quit while.

 

[spiderman2]

Imagine what Disney will do at the BO this year with CA: Civil War, Alice Through the Looking Glass, Finding Dory, Doctor Strange and Star Wars: Rogue One coming out.

I wonder if finding dory will make a billion WW or not.

I'm not quite convinced about 2 of those films being as big as everyone seems to be claiming. Rogue One is still an open question.

I don't think Rogue one will make a billion or more but still do while. Do we know what the budget will be like for that movie?

 

[-Arya-]

If I had to rank the films I'd go

1) Empire Strikes Back
2) Return of the Jedi
3) A New Hope
4) Force Awakens

I have to revisit the prequels but I remember not caring for them at all. I'm glad TFA is doing so well.

 

[spiderman2]

Apparently they only spent $40m on advertising, as the corrupt sponsors spent their own money, and a lot of their ads were done on Disney platforms.

Oh so then with that and the movies budget it cost 240 million to make. So 2.5-3 times that would be 600-720 million then to break even.

 

[Erzengel]

"The Dark Side Beckons".

It's under the cd track "The Battle of Endor II".

My favorite track through all 7 movies is "The Clash of Lightsabers/The Stormtroopers are Coming". The part where R2-D2 opens the door for everyone to escape the Falcon is IMO the most beautiful piece.

 

[spiderman2]

Yeah, but we aren't talking about National Enquirer with Bigfoot. I'm talking about entertainment news articles.

Secondly this is Star Wars. Last year Spider-Man made 770 million WW, that's low for Spider-Man. If Star Wars only made 1 billion, that'd be low for Star Wars.

There are certain franchises that there are higher expectations for. If BvS makes less than 800 million, if Avengers 3 or Avatar 2 makes under 1 billion because of previous movies.

It's the state of the current movie blockbuster that Star Wars raised the bar for over 40 years ago. $200 million use to be a definition of a blockbuster. Now it's what $350-$400?



There's a possibility that Star Wars could make their money back just based on merchandising even if there weren't new movies, it'd just take longer but I think it was very much possible.

I'm just curious when it starts being technically profitable.

Yeah that's true episode 1 made like 950 million or something before they brought it back out in 3d. If force awakens only made like 50 million more then episode 1 witch was not in 3d and had lower ticket prices with the movie being 16 years old that would not really be that good. You bring up amazing spider man 2. It made I think 708 not 770 and the very first spider man movie made like 820 million. So amazing spider man 2 made like 112 less then spider man 1 even with 3d bigger international market and 12 years of inflation that is puthectic.

 

[Sithborg]

Is there a record this movie has not broken lol.

Yeah, the opening Sat record. lol