The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[InCali]

What do you mean about 390?

Avatar did have long legs, and it also depends on the home release. If they hold out on TFA until June, I think they could get a lot more out of TFA on the back end. And they might just do that if it is looking like they could break Avatar's record. Basically, it is all about how China goes right now. $300m there and Star Wars is in business.

I mean that domestically, TFA is out in front of Avatar by about 390 million and not 370 (I think that's what you were saying) and that number is still going up as of yesterday. That will probably (but not necessarily) change at some point and that number will start to drop.

Interesting idea about how long they leave it in the theaters. I think they have announced a preliminary BluRay release date, but that can always be changed.

Think of how much less GwtW would have made if they announced a BluRay release date 4 months after its release and people could have watched in on my Acer projector with a 120" screen in their own home.

 

[InCali]

Wikipedia:
Which reminds me JJ Abrams said that he has no intention in releasing a Director's Cut edition (adding extra footage) for the Bluray release, so I'm guessing he won't include any extra footage either for a re-release.

Interesting fact. TFA was #2 in Japan's BO rank for two weeks, but latest news says on the 3rd week it went up to #1. Which shows that it may not explode during opening, but the ticket sales is pretty consistent, and probably Japanese weren't in a hurry to see the movie, gained positive reviews and it made more people interested to come and see it. I wonder if this can be an indication for China?

As I recall, the first week at least TFA was number 2 in ticket sales (which I understand are actually tracked in Japan), but was #1 in $$$ (presumably because of premium ticket prices??).

Is that correct?

 

[PacificBoy]

You're right, InCali.

http://www.ign.com/articles/2015/12...performs-star-wars-the-force-awakens-in-japan

Much more children's tickets sold for Yokai Watch likely.

 

[AnneFan]

What a monster performance. The only movie with a chance of topping this is probably Episode 8.

 

[InCali]

From the last few days, it looks like TFA is starting to hold just a little bit stronger OS than in the US/Canada (EDIT: TFA probably wasn't as heavily front loaded OS as it was US/Canada and it might just be catching on.). At first glance it doesn't look to be statistically significant because the sample size is pretty small and the difference isn't that great from the numbers I crunched. That being said, it's fair to say that it's holding AT LEAST as well OS as it is DOM. Last weekend's drop was a shade better than 30% OS compared to about 40% DOM. Here's an article from deadline.

http://deadline.com/2016/01/star-wa...daddys-home-international-results-1201675263/

China could move the percentage of the OS/DOM split from about 48/52 (DOM/OS) to about 42/58 (DOM/OS) if you assume 2.3B without China and about 2.6B with it (300M BO take in China).

If 1.1B is possible in the US/Canada, 1.2B is possible OS (without China) for a total of 2.3B. That's a fairly optimistic number, but not impossible (IMO).

EDIT: After writing the above, something occurred to me. (There are a lot of suppositions in the following, so beware!!)

If TFA were to be able to get to 1.1B and IF it were really starting to catch on in the OS markets (as evidenced by some unusual increases noted in the deadline article) and IF you ended up seeing something along the lines of a traditional 40/60 split, that would put TFA around 2.75B WW. There's a lot of guesswork here, but stranger things have happened.

 

[Smurphftw]

I mean that domestically, TFA is out in front of Avatar by about 390 million and not 370 (I think that's what you were saying) and that number is still going up as of yesterday. That will probably (but not necessarily) change at some point and that number will start to drop.

Interesting idea about how long they leave it in the theaters. I think they have announced a preliminary BluRay release date, but that can always be changed.

Think of how much less GwtW would have made if they announced a BluRay release date 4 months after its release and people could have watched in on my Acer projector with a 120" screen in their own home.

That's the biggest advantage older movies had over movies released today. In particular with GWtW where there wasn't even the ability to watch it on TV. If you wanted to see it a second time, you had to buy another ticket. There was no other option.

 

[Erzengel]

That was Star Wars too. Star Wars wasn't on VHS until 5 years after it's release.

 

[Iceman]

Furious 7 and Avengers worldwide should be going down today.

 

[InCali]

That's the biggest advantage older movies had over movies released today. In particular with GWtW where there wasn't even the ability to watch it on TV. If you wanted to see it a second time, you had to buy another ticket. There was no other option.

What's a TV?

Television Comes to America, 1947-57

From http://www.lib.niu.edu/1993/ihy930341.html

That and the movie industry has become a puppy mill. But, yeah, the biggest thing is home availability. I think if you started counting streaming/blu ray/premium channel/TV network income/etc., you would get a very different picture.

 

[InCali]

That was Star Wars too. Star Wars wasn't on VHS until 5 years after it's release.

Yeah. I remember all that with ET also. I think it was 5 or 6 years. They had some special VHS tape that you couldn't copy.

 

[danoyse]

Yeah. I remember all that with ET also. I think it was 5 or 6 years. They had some special VHS tape that you couldn't copy.

The VHS tape had green plastic on it too. It was such a big deal that it was finally out on video that it was all over the news the day it came out.

 

[Smurphftw]

That was Star Wars too. Star Wars wasn't on VHS until 5 years after it's release.

Agreed. The original SW had multiple re-releases because of that.

 

[InCali]

The VHS tape had green plastic on it too. It was such a big deal that it was finally out on video that it was all over the news the day it came out.

Yeah. Right. I vaguely remember it looked funny. I think that was the "protection" it had built in. That would have come in handy for the video that was recorded of my friend's wedding. She gave it to her friend so she could watch it and she taped an episode of Star Trek TNG over it. Oops......

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Weekend actual bumped up to $90.24 million. Total domestic gross stands at $742.21 million.

 

[InCali]

Weekend actual bumped up to $90.24 million. Total domestic gross stands at $742.21 million.

That's a drop of just under 40%. Passes Avatar's first run numbers with ease today. Today's numbers are going to be very informative.

 

[Sithborg]

I wouldn't call 18 million today "with ease". There are far too many factors that could prevent it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I mean that domestically, TFA is out in front of Avatar by about 390 million and not 370 (I think that's what you were saying) and that number is still going up as of yesterday. That will probably (but not necessarily) change at some point and that number will start to drop.

Interesting idea about how long they leave it in the theaters. I think they have announced a preliminary BluRay release date, but that can always be changed.

Think of how much less GwtW would have made if they announced a BluRay release date 4 months after its release and people could have watched in on my Acer projector with a 120" screen in their own home.

I meant that if it did the exact same business as Avatar did from this point on, there would be $370m in TFA tank left. But as it is doing better then Avatar every week up to this point, it could still have even more then that left in the tank.

 

[Horhey]

Sam Jackson: George Lucas Got SCREWED!

[YT]OXaJV3j1QnE[/YT]

He said this 3 years ago.

 

[InCali]

I wouldn't call 18 million today "with ease". There are far too many factors that could prevent it.

Avatar's "first run" numbers (749M+)". It was only when Avatar was re-released that it went to 760M.

 

[InCali]

I meant that if it did the exact same business as Avatar did from this point on, there would be $370m in TFA tank left. But as it is doing better then Avatar every week up to this point, it could still have even more then that left in the tank.

Ah....I see. Yes. I misunderstood. If it does Avatar numbers from here on out (after last weekend including re-release), it would end up at 742M (current) + 372M or 1.114B.

Edit: Check that. At day 17, Avatar was at 352 and ended up with 760 or a difference of 408M. Yikes, if TFA were to do those kind of numbers, it would end up at 1.15B. That's just sooooo crazy sounding......that would be maintaining the 390M lead it has as of today.

A tidy sum......

It's hard to believe that's going to happen, but you never know. It includes Avatar's second release, but that only added about 10M to the coffers.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I knew that Sat to Sun drop estimate was too aggressive.

 

[Drizzle]

I mean that domestically, TFA is out in front of Avatar by about 390 million and not 370 (I think that's what you were saying) and that number is still going up as of yesterday. That will probably (but not necessarily) change at some point and that number will start to drop.

Interesting idea about how long they leave it in the theaters. I think they have announced a preliminary BluRay release date, but that can always be changed.

Think of how much less GwtW would have made if they announced a BluRay release date 4 months after its release and people could have watched in on my Acer projector with a 120" screen in their own home.

Well, considering that Avatar was released on Blu-ray in April 2010, four months after its theatrical release and that didn't seem to affect its box office profits. Given all the money Star Wars has made so far after only two and a half weeks, I don't think a fast tracked Blu-ray release is a concern.

 

[InCali]

Sam Jackson: George Lucas Got SCREWED!

[YT]OXaJV3j1QnE[/YT]

He said this 3 years ago.

Evidently the future is not so clouded for Mace.

 

[InCali]

Well, considering that Avatar was released on Blu-ray in April 2010, four months after its theatrical release and that didn't seem to affect its box office profits. Given all the money Star Wars has made so far after only two and a half weeks, I don't think a fast tracked Blu-ray release is a concern.

There are some caveats. First of all by it's 120th day of release (4 months), Avatar had made all but about 5M of its first run total of 749M. Secondly, Avatar was sold in the theaters as a unique 3D experience. The bluray release was the 2D release. The 3D release didn't come out until much, much later unless you got a copy by buying a panasonic 3D bluray player/starter bundle (and got screwed out of $400).

So, what you're saying is may be true, but it's not the same situation. I could definitely see Disney holding off on the release date if we get into Feb with TFA still pulling down significant BO #s. I sure would....

IF the technology existed, something like that would have KILLED GwtW long term BO numbers as it was released and re-released (and, as a film classic, rightfully so) over decades.

EDIT: The studios get a LOT of money for the movies rights these days after the movie is no longer in theaters. As I said, add in those numbers and you'll be painting a very different picture of what a movie really made. They didn't have the technology available way back then so it's apples and oranges. They were 2 completely different ways of maximizing profits.

 

[Iceman]

This Monday figure is the one I've been looking forward to most. With the holidays over it will give some info to what we can expect for the rest of the run.