The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[SomeOldGuy]

So have we had any Monday numbers yet? Also it sounds like at worst the movie is going to make 900 USA when things are done best 1.2 billion. What about world wide? What do you guys think is the lowest it could make world wide? What do you think is the highest? I am going to say world wide it ends between 2.1billion and 3 billion being the highest.

Early Monday estimate at BOT is around $33 million which would be a stupid good hold if true.

 

[jokesonm3]

Good god, $33M on a second monday....... a lot of films get that during a day in their opening week, absolutely insane.

 

[Silver Surfer]

That number would mean it's 2nd Monday is higher than Spider-Man 2's first Monday, the previous record holder.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

33 m Monday?

That is spectacular.

One billion domestic is looking real good.

 

[writer0327]

These numbers are unreal. Insane. I honestly never thought it would touch $1B domestic, but it's looking almost certain.

 

[Heisenborg]

GotG2 needs to move back to August, it's going to suffer being in the middle of Fast and the Furious and Star Wars 8. I don't see Lucasfilm moving away from the 40th anniversary in May (Bond's anniversary was huge for Skyfall), and honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Ep8 break more records like opening weekend and fastest to $billion if China is on board. But if Rogue One becomes another super hit then maybe Star Wars blockbusters will become the annual Holiday Special.

Anyway what an outstanding run we're watching! IMAX showtimes for New Years were sold out since last week, the force is awakened indeed

 

[Tilapia]

GotG2 needs to move back to August, it's going to suffer being in the middle of Fast and the Furious and Star Wars 8. I don't see Lucasfilm moving away from the 40th anniversary in May (Bond's anniversary was huge for Skyfall), and honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Ep8 break more records like opening weekend and fastest to $billion if China is on board. But if Rogue One becomes another super hit then maybe Star Wars blockbusters will become the annual Holiday Special.

Anyway what an outstanding run we're watching! IMAX showtimes for New Years were sold out since last week, the force is awakened indeed

Marvel would never back out of May, but in this case it would be prudent. But if they do, WB will probably drop WW there. Or Fox can drop Wolverine 3 and cash in for a couple weeks.

 

[spider-neil]

I don't think Rogue One is going to be the mega hit Episode VII is just like the interim Avengers aren't mega hits (with the notable except of IM3).

 

[InCali]

Early Monday estimate at BOT is around $33 million which would be a stupid good hold if true.

If this number holds up, that is absolutely insane. Avatar (749M) could be toast by Sunday night. That's a stretch, but possible. I thought maybe mid-20M and that would have been a pretty good hold.

 

[InCali]

Good god, $33M on a second monday....... a lot of films get that during a day in their opening week, absolutely insane.

A lot of movies don't get that on their opening weekend.......

 

[InCali]

I don't think Rogue One is going to be the mega hit Episode VII is just like the interim Avengers aren't mega hits (with the notable except of IM3).

I don't think anyone thinks that. It will probably do just fine, but it's going to be quite some time before we see the BO numbers TFA is putting up and I'm including Episode 8 in that comment. I think 8 will do very, very well because the ending sets it up nicely, but I don't see it overtaking TFA. So much came together with this movie (directing, script, cast, SW starvation, etc.) that can't be replicated with a recipe (Think Avengers and AoU).

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't think anyone thinks that. It will probably do just fine, but it's going to be quite some time before we see the BO numbers TFA is putting up and I'm including Episode 8 in that comment. I think 8 will do very, very well because the ending sets it up nicely, but I don't see it overtaking TFA. So much came together with this movie (directing, script, cast, SW starvation, etc.) that can't be replicated with a recipe (Think Avengers and AoU).

My money is on Rogue One doing a billion. Especially if Vader is in it. Imagine how much hype that would generate. The return of Vader to the big screen.

TFA and VIII will not be like Avengers and AoU. Avengers didn't set an nearly unbeatable bench mark. TFA is doing that, but I also fully expect VIII to be #1 in 2017, and sailing past $1.5bil without much trouble. Especially with the ending of the film.

 

[InCali]

My money is on Rogue One doing a billion. Especially if Vader is in it. Imagine how much hype that would generate. The return of Vader to the big screen.

TFA and VIII will not be like Avengers and AoU. Avengers didn't set an nearly unbeatable bench mark. TFA is doing that, but I also fully expect VIII to be #1 in 2017, and sailing past $1.5bil without much trouble. Especially with the ending of the film.

I don't disagree with your first point. Rogue One could do 1B WW if everything comes together nicely.

I wasn't saying that Avengers/AoU was exactly the same as TFA/Episode 8, but there are definitely some similarities. Both were/are mega hits with the clear advantage to TFA. Both were new. The Avengers movie was set up within MCU and we got to see all those superheroes/heroines together for the first time. It was fresh and exciting. With TFA, it was like we found an Oasis in the desert after years of wandering around. New and old characters teamed up. It was fresh and exciting.

The other similarity is that AoU made less money at the BO than The Avengers. We'd had our drink of cold water and you can't replicate the first time for anything. I think the same will hold true for Episode 8. It will be a huge hit, but not TFA huge. It could have a MONSTER opening however......

 

[Iceman]

There's no doubt that GotG 2 will not be in the same neighborhood as Ep 8, but I suspect it will do fine. I could see Ep 8 having a big, big opening, but, unless it's really, really (and I mean REALLY) good, it won't have TFA's final totals. Biggest of '17 if it's released then. Most likely. I don't see Avatar 2 doing Avatar numbers unless its really, really (and I mean REALLY t: ) good.

I don't expect Avatar 2 to do Avatar numbers even if it's a great film. There is a massive one-off situation with both this film and Titanic which is very difficult to repeat.

 

[InCali]

I don't expect Avatar 2 to do Avatar numbers even if it's a great film. There is a massive one-off situation with both this film and Titanic which is very difficult to repeat.

Yeah....I think we're pretty much on the same wavelength.

 

[Iceman]

My money is on Rogue One doing a billion. Especially if Vader is in it. Imagine how much hype that would generate. The return of Vader to the big screen.

I haven't been following Rogue One details so I didn't even know that was a possibility. If that happens all bets are off!

 

[spider-neil]

I don't expect Avatar 2 to do Avatar numbers even if it's a great film. There is a massive one-off situation with both this film and Titanic which is very difficult to repeat.

I think Avatar 2 is going to do Avatar numbers purely because of the length of time between movies. It's eight years, right?

 

[Lilbaz]

I think Avatar 2 is going to do Avatar numbers purely because of the length of time between movies. It's eight years, right?

A lot of people don't actually like avatar. It was so big because it was new technology and something unique. I don't think avatar 2 will be able to say the same.

 

[InCali]

I think Avatar 2 is going to do Avatar numbers purely because of the length of time between movies. It's eight years, right?

I wouldn't bet the farm on it. I liked Avatar. As I've said before, the 3D was the 2nd best I've seen. Unlike most, I'm a 3D fan. Still, Avatar was something new and even though time has passed, I don't see it generating the kind of interest the first one did. The movies like Titanic, Avatar, TFA all have something new and different about them. They have the "it" factor. I'm not quite sure how to describe "it", but I know "it" when I see "it". t:

 

[Iceman]

I think Avatar 2 is going to do Avatar numbers purely because of the length of time between movies. It's eight years, right?

Will be 8 years yes. At the moment we're assuming the sequel won't have a comparable groundbreaking technology like the great depth 3D of the first film. People don't choose 3D showings anywhere near as much nowadays as they did for Avatar and the films that came out in the years soon after it, and that was a big source of revenue premium for it. Of course you never know with Cameron and if he comes up with something crazy and new on the tech front it will again be unpredictable. But if he just makes a very good sequel I think it will do very well but not $2.7B, I think below $2B.

 

[mclay18]

Anita Busch says that TFA brought in an estimated $31.5M on its second Monday. That makes a light 28% decline from Sunday's gross, and a light 22% dip from the first Monday.

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-with-stellar-monday-box-office-1201673778/

It will hit $600M today. Crazy.

 

[Erzengel]

Anita Busch

*snicker*

 

[mclay18]

*snicker*

Sounds better than that toad Nikki Finke.

 

[Iceman]

Anita Busch says that TFA brought in an estimated $31.5M on its second Monday. That makes a light 28% decline from Sunday's gross, and a light 22% dip from the first Monday.

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-with-stellar-monday-box-office-1201673778/

It will hit $600M today. Crazy.

Bloody hell! Over $30m still. Gonna be another $100m plus just from the weekdays (less on NY Eve) and then another $100m or close to it on the weekend. After next weekend the film will be out on its own domestically. This is going to be one of the biggest margins for record beats for domestic total.

 

[InCali]

Anita Busch says that TFA brought in an estimated $31.5M on its second Monday. That makes a light 28% decline from Sunday's gross, and a light 22% dip from the first Monday.

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-with-stellar-monday-box-office-1201673778/

It will hit $600M today. Crazy.

It will probably be very close. If I remember correctly, last Monday was a bit higher than last Tuesday (which usually is not the case, but I suspect the people watching this aren't the bargain basement hunters). It was Thursday that was really off (and that will most likely be the case this week also). If this trend continues, it WILL either pass or come very close to passing Avatar's first run box office total by the end of Sunday. That is only 17 days in release and THAT is CRAZY.