The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Unbreakable Lex]

This movie is still tracking for about 900m domestic. It will be interesting if it can hit 1bn domestic (doesn't seem that far fetched now). What a juggernaut.

 

[spider-neil]

I wouldn't bet the farm on it. I liked Avatar. As I've said before, the 3D was the 2nd best I've seen. Unlike most, I'm a 3D fan. Still, Avatar was something new and even though time has passed, I don't see it generating the kind of interest the first one did. The movies like Titanic, Avatar, TFA all have something new and different about them. They have the "it" factor. I'm not quite sure how to describe "it", but I know "it" when I see "it". t:

I think people (and I include myself) will want the rush and nostalgia of the 3D of Avatar again which imho is still far and away the best 3D seen in a movie.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

I think people (and I include myself) will want the rush and nostalgia of the 3D of Avatar again which imho is still far and away the best 3D seen in a movie.

That's what gave it it's legs. Everyone was running out talking about how amazing the film looked in 3D, how the Jungle came alive. That's what boosted it's sales.

Once it came out of the theaters and people were watching it in 2D at home, it lost a lot of it's luster and people began hating on it because they didn't deem it worthy of the money it earned. It was worthy in the theater. The negative backlash that has since come to this film since it left the theaters may be too much to overcome. I have a hard time expecting these new films to come anywhere close to the original in terms of Box Office success. They may each hit a billion, but that's almost expected for blockbusters these days. When these movies release, 2 billion will be the new bar.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

This movie is still tracking for about 900m domestic. It will be interesting if it can hit 1bn domestic (doesn't seem that far fetched now). What a juggernaut.

It deserves it!

 

[Mysteryman]

Avatar actually fullfilled the expectations of those who wentt to to see it expecting to see something different technologically.

 

[Mysteryman]

It deserves it!

I have never understood the concept of a movie deserving a particular box office total
If TFA doesnt make a billion dollars domestic, is it any less a great movie to those who loved it ?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's odd how Avatar has just faded from pop culture consciousness considering how massive it was.

 

[Mysteryman]

It's odd how Avatar has just faded from pop culture consciousness considering how massive it was.

Cameron waited too long on getting the sequels out.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Personally I wish Cameron would just direct the Battle Angel Adaption but whatever he seems to have Avatar fever...for some reason.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$39.4 million overseas for Monday.

 

[InCali]

I think people (and I include myself) will want the rush and nostalgia of the 3D of Avatar again which imho is still far and away the best 3D seen in a movie.

I would have to disagree with the best 3D statement (and so does James Cameron by the way). I have a 3D Home Theater and "Hugo" takes that award.

http://www.firstshowing.net/2011/watch-james-cameron-discusses-3d-in-hugo-with-martin-scorsese/

EDIT: If you ever get the chance to see Hugo in 3D, don't miss it. The story is quite good, but the visuals are absolutely stunning. I honestly can't think of a movie that had better cinematography.

 

[InCali]

I think people (and I include myself) will want the rush and nostalgia of the 3D of Avatar again which imho is still far and away the best 3D seen in a movie.

Oh, I will most DEFINITELY go see it. I'm just saying I don't think it will hold up at the BO like the first one.

 

[InCali]

Personally I wish Cameron would just direct the Battle Angel Adaption but whatever he seems to have Avatar fever...for some reason.

There might be some money to mine although I don't know if he'd do it for ONLY that reason. In fact, he probably wouldn't. I don't get the feeling he's walking around with an exceptionally thin wallet.

 

[spiderman2]

So with the 31.5 million Monday how likely is it that the movie makes 100 million this weekend? Also I guess the movie is only around 80 million behind Jurassic world USA wise so I think that means star wars will pas it come Thursday?

 

[Mysteryman]

Personally I wish Cameron would just direct the Battle Angel Adaption but whatever he seems to have Avatar fever...for some reason.

Last I heard, Cameron had tapped Robert Rodriguez to direct Battle Angel.
Cameron is producing.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Last I heard, Cameron had tapped Robert Rodriguez to direct Battle Angel.
Cameron is producing.

I know, which is why I'm not interested in it anymore.

 

[InCali]

So with the 31.5 million Monday how likely is it that the movie makes 100 million this weekend? Also I guess the movie is only around 80 million behind Jurassic world USA wise so I think that means star wars will pas it come Thursday?

It looks to be pretty close. Ditto for Avatar come Sunday.

 

[Iceman]

So with the 31.5 million Monday how likely is it that the movie makes 100 million this weekend? Also I guess the movie is only around 80 million behind Jurassic world USA wise so I think that means star wars will pas it come Thursday?

I expect it to make around that figure but wouldn't be surprised if it's slightly below. Plus it seems to be getting bad luck on missing all the nice round numbers so far ...$250m OW & $150m 2W.

Yeah JW is dropping Friday at the very latest with a very good chance of Thursday. And Avengers even before that.

 

[InCali]

So with the 31.5 million Monday how likely is it that the movie makes 100 million this weekend? Also I guess the movie is only around 80 million behind Jurassic world USA wise so I think that means star wars will pas it come Thursday?

I think this is a good point. A lot of the time, I get caught up in %age drops and those can be hard to predict. If TFA can pull in over 30M on a Monday, then it sure seems like a 100M weekend could be in the cards.

 

[Iceman]

I have never understood the concept of a movie deserving a particular box office total
If TFA doesnt make a billion dollars domestic, is it any less a great movie to those who loved it ?

Not at all, and the same obviously goes for all movies. If you enjoy something you enjoy it! But your accurate statement doesn't preclude someone thinking a film deserves a good reception and success, with box office being one such measure.

 

[Iceman]

Avatar actually fullfilled the expectations of those who wentt to to see it expecting to see something different technologically.

It did yes, and there are hardly any films that show obvious and significant technological progress. Certainly delivered on that front for me. But I don't think it will repeat that same crazy level of success approaching $3B worldwide, even if it is still very successful.

 

[terry78]

Right now Cameron is like, if he doesn't get his Avatar saga out of the way it'll be too late at some point. Hence his passing Battle Angel off.

 

[InCali]

Funny story. My niece just turned 10 and I was visiting her out at my mom's house right after Christmas. My sister told her she needed to do better in school and she said "I'll try". So, naturally, I say "No. Try not. Do. Or do not. There is no try". So she looks at me for a second and says "Hey, you're not a Jedi".

 

[writer0327]

I didn't think TFA had a chance of beating JW before the year was up, but looks like it will. So much fit JW being the movie of the year 2015...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I would be surprised if the film hit 100 million this weekend. If it does then it does and I will be wrong but I'm not projecting that.