The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[JC00]

I'm gonna guess $39-40m for today.

 

[spiderman2]

Yeah, the opening Sat record. lol

Yeah I heard about that. Darn if it got that record it could have maybe been 250 OW instead of 248.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's under the cd track "The Battle of Endor II".

My favorite track through all 7 movies is "The Clash of Lightsabers/The Stormtroopers are Coming". The part where R2-D2 opens the door for everyone to escape the Falcon is IMO the most beautiful piece.

It is, but that track in a compilation on the re-released soundtracks. The actual piece of music is called, "The Dark Side Beckons". It is the same with The Force Theme. It has no actual track, but that is what the piece of music is called.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm gonna guess $39-40m for today.

I'm guessing 34-37 million.

 

[spiderman2]

I'm guessing 34-37 million.

42 million I am guessing. If the movie where to do 34-37 would 100 million weekend still be possible.

 

[InCali]

I'm gonna guess $39-40m for today.

If it hit that today, I think it would be a virtual lock to hit 100M. Even a little below that gives it a good shot.

EDIT: 100M or just under and it passes Avatar DOM (1st release).

 

[KangConquers]

it'll be a shame if the film can't beat Avatar's worldwide total, given it's set to trounce the domestic number by next Tuesday.

 

[flickchick85]

it'll be a shame if the film can't beat Avatar's worldwide total, given it's set to trounce the domestic number by next Tuesday.

Just wait. China is coming. t:

 

[spiderman2]

it'll be a shame if the film can't beat Avatar's worldwide total, given it's set to trounce the domestic number by next Tuesday.

I don't know if it will catch avatar or not WW but china is the big key. I think 2.3 billion is now about the lowest we are going to end at though. The movie is at around 1.4 billion and I think china will get at least 300 million. That would get it up to 1.7 billion and sounds like USA has at least 300 million left. That would get it up to 2 billion and then I think rest of the world will get at least 300 million to.

 

[InCali]

I don't know if it will catch avatar or not WW but china is the big key. I think 2.3 billion is now about the lowest we are going to end at though. The movie is at around 1.4 billion and I think china will get at least 300 million. That would get it up to 1.7 billion and sounds like USA has at least 300 million left. That would get it up to 2 billion and then I think rest of the world will get at least 300 million to.

I've been thinking through some scenarios and believe Avatar's 3rd (for sure), 4th (for sure), and 5th (probably) weekends are toast. Anything around 100M this weekend puts TFA at about 750M, from there, 65M (4th weekend) and 50M (5th weekend and a holiday), puts TFA at around 865M. Add in a couple of mid-week takes averaging about 40M (and I think that's conservative) and you are looking at about 950M. I don't think it's a stretch to get another 50M DOM.

For those who have been doing this longer than me, do you think I'm missing anything? This looks like a reasonable roadmap to 1B.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Deadline has 35 million. In 2009 when New Years Day landed on a Friday all the films either went down a little or up a little. What I'm saying is don't expect real increases on Saturday so expect around 90-95mil for the weekend.

 

[InCali]

Deadline has 35 million. In 2009 when New Years Day landed on a Friday all the films either went down a little or up a little. What I'm saying is don't expect real increases on Saturday so expect around 90mil for the weekend.

If Saturday is also 35M, I'd say you can expect north of 90 and maybe close to 100M. I doubt Sunday would come in much less than 27M. I had it pegged at mid 90s earlier, but BOM said to expect about a 30% drop (yeah, I know, who's listening.....)

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

If Saturday is also 35M, I'd say you can expect north of 90 and maybe close to 100M. I doubt Sunday would come in much less than 27M. I had it pegged at mid 90s earlier, but BOM said to expect about a 30% drop (yeah, I know, who's listening.....)

I don't see the film quite doing 27 million on Sunday. It won't be super far off that number though.

Let's look at Avatar again. It actually went up 71% from Thursday to Friday while The Force Awakens, if these numbers hold, went up around 53%, it continues to show that it is more front loaded. Avatar only went up 2% on Saturday and dropped 33% Sunday. With the totally understandable front loading TFA is expreincing I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped a little Saturday and dropped in the early 30 percentile Sunday. It's not impossible and the 35 mil number could increase but off of that number I don't expect a 100 million. It will get close enough though.

Box office Mojo predicted a 30% drop? I didn't formally predict anything so I won't criticize. I thought it would be difficult to get under a 35% drop but not impossible. Who knows maybe I would have ended up predicting a 25% drop.

 

[TheVileOne]

Either way, this film is legitimately smashing Avatar's record.

But can it make $1 billion domestic?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

We knew it was easily beating Avatar after weekend two.

I haven't crunched the numbers enough with regards to the billion question. To me it depends on if it continues to hold post holidays and the competition doesn't hurt it too much.

 

[InCali]

We knew it was easily beating Avatar after weekend two.

I haven't crunched the numbers enough with regards to the billion question. To me it depends on if it continues to hold post holidays and the competition doesn't hurt it too much.

Yup. I clunked through this and about 60% holds do it (if I recall). Anything above that early on helps a great deal. 90M would be about a 60% hold.

EDIT: If you take out opening Thursday, the hold last weekend was about 80%. That's not entirely a fair comparison, because people would have jammed in even more without Thursday.

 

[spiderman2]

I've been thinking through some scenarios and believe Avatar's 3rd (for sure), 4th (for sure), and 5th (probably) weekends are toast. Anything around 100M this weekend puts TFA at about 750M, from there, 65M (4th weekend) and 50M (5th weekend and a holiday), puts TFA at around 865M. Add in a couple of mid-week takes averaging about 40M (and I think that's conservative) and you are looking at about 950M. I don't think it's a stretch to get another 50M DOM.

For those who have been doing this longer than me, do you think I'm missing anything? This looks like a reasonable roadmap to 1B.

I really don't know how these things work. At one point with the way Jurassic world was going I thought it was going to end at like 2 billion not 1.68 billion lol. But I do know that if you take away china at least that star wars is ahead of its pace. About the 1 billion looks like we should be around 740-750 by the end of sunday. If next weekend the movie drops by 40% like it did last weekend and like it may do this weekend that would be a 54m weekend. Then if the movie again dropes by 40% on the next weekend the weekend the movie comes out in china that would be around a 33million weekend. Now with those 2 weekend the movie would be at around 827-837 million plus the 8 days in those 2 weeks that are not weekend. Say the movie does around 10 million on those days that would be 80 more to get the movie around 907-917 million. By then the movie will have been out for around 24 days so I don't think it will have much left in the tank by then but at the same time I don't think the movie will go down 40% each week because the lower it gets the lower it can drop with out making nothing. Really thinking about it I think it could be headed to 1.1 billion USA but we will see.

 

[InCali]

I really don't know how these things work. At one point with the way Jurassic world was going I thought it was going to end at like 2 billion not 1.68 billion lol. But I do know that if you take away china at least that star wars is ahead of its pace. About the 1 billion looks like we should be around 740-750 by the end of sunday. If next weekend the movie drops by 40% like it did last weekend and like it may do this weekend that would be a 54m weekend. Then if the movie again dropes by 40% on the next weekend the weekend the movie comes out in china that would be around a 33million weekend. Now with those 2 weekend the movie would be at around 827-837 million plus the 8 days in those 2 weeks that are not weekend. Say the movie does around 10 million on those days that would be 80 more to get the movie around 907-917 million. By then the movie will have been out for around 24 days so I don't think it will have much left in the tank by then but at the same time I don't think the movie will go down 40% each week because the lower it gets the lower it can drop with out making nothing. Really thinking about it I think it could be headed to 1.1 billion USA but we will see.

Well, if the # is 35M on Friday, my "reasonable" assumptions probably went out the window already. t: Anyway, I suck at this prediction stuff. If, however, it comes in near 100M, I think I'm a genius (again).

 

[Rocketman]

I'd say 1billion domestic is guaranteed.

 

[InCali]

I'd say 1billion domestic is guaranteed.

My new best friend!!! I think this movie is going to hold better (longer) than most once it gets into week 4-5. I can see it playing with some strength into March.

 

[MurkeNyou]

Either way, this film is legitimately smashing Avatar's record.

But can it make $1 billion domestic?

It'll hit $1 Billion in a matter of days. People just keep coming back to the theaters. I even heard that the bootlegs are not even that great since there are no empty quiet theaters to bootleg it in.

 

[Iceman]

Also in overseas news:

http://deadline.com/2016/01/star-wa...-office-international-700-million-1201675079/

‘Force Awakens’ Blasts Past $700M Overseas; Rises To #7 At All-Time WW B.O.

 

[InCali]

It'll hit $1 Billion in a matter of days. People just keep coming back to the theaters. I even heard that the bootlegs are not even that great since there are no empty quiet theaters to bootleg it in.

I like your confidence. If it behaves "normally", I don't think it hits 1B, but Star Wars isn't a normal movie. It will basically hit its 3x multiplier after 17 days in release. Stop and think about that for a second.

I hear all the talk about frontloading and the people who bring it up aren't wrong. There has been frontloading, but I think underneath that, there are a lot of people who form a base for TFA to play for quite some time.

If it holds up, it could be pushing 1B by the end of January. Yeah, that sounds

I just like to really push projections because I like to see the extraordinary. I love to think, say, and feel "WOW"!!!

I think I'm gonna go see TFA today at the Cinemark near my house (XD of course).

 

[InCali]

My comment regarding how quickly TFA got to its 3x multiplier got me to thinking. I decided to take the top 10 BO opening weekends (DOM) and chart how many days it took them to hit their 3x multiplier.

1-TFA (17 days-estimate)
2-JW (47 days)
3-The Avengers (More than 133 days)
4-Avengers:AoU (Did not make 3x of its opening)
5-IM3 (Did not make 3x of its opening)
6-HP and DH Pt 2 (Did not make 3x of its opening)
7-TDKR (Did not make 3x of its opening)
8-TDK (33 Days)
9-THG:Catching Fire (Did not make 3x of its opening)
10-THG (Did not make 3x of its opening)

Sort of interesting stats when you think about movies that would be considered "frontloaded".

 

[ManWithNoName18]

How much longer do you guys think that the movie can stay number 1 at Domestic BO? This week and next week I think FA is good, but then you got the fifth Wave, Ride Along, 13 Hours, and then the week latter you got Kung Fu Panda.