The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

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SomeOldGuy said:
Back in June, Morgan Stanley broke the costs down thusly:

On the cost side he figures the movie production will run $423 million — including $200 million for the film, $98 million from profit participations, and $125 million to make and distribute home videos. Print and ad costs subtract $175 million for the movie, and $40 million for the home video.

http://deadline.com/2015/06/star-wars-vii-third-highest-grossing-film-forecast-1201452210/

Usually films are considered to hit profitability at 2.5 to 3 times production budget (which would be the $200 million) but even if you use the whole $423 million figure it's still already in the black. And then there's this from the same link:

Disney’s also poised to take a larger than average slice of the theatrical sales pie. The studio typically splits the proceeds in half with domestic theaters. But for SW “we expect Disney retains 55-60% of domestic box office receipts and 40-45% of the international take,” Swinburne says.

Just using the lower end of both projections, as of yesterday that gives The Mouse $358 million from domestic and $271 million from international for a total take of $629 million.

tl;dr Disney is making a killing.
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. . .they actually included the costs of making the *home video release*, and included them in the claimed costs of the movie? Seriously? Why not add the costs of producing the tie-in video games, while they are at it?
 
danoyse said:
And my mother was a saint... :funny:

My mom joked today that the movie just never went away. They were always re-releasing it, so whenever we went to the movies it was always playing. I remember leaving once, when I was about 5 or so, and my mom clearly saying, “OK, now that’s it. Next time we’re seeing a different movie!”

We definitely saw other movies - I remember seeing a few Disney re-releases (because that’s all Disney had back then), The Muppet Movie, and Superman. Hell, I even remember going to see the pilot to Buck Rogers, because it was shown in movies before the TV show aired.

But then we just saw Star Wars again. I think the last time I saw it in theaters before it finally came on TV was in 1982.
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That would have been torture for me. I can barely wait the 4-5 months for home releases now. I'd haven't been able to take that. But it would have been cool to get the chance to see Star Wars in theaters almost every year. :atp:

And cool story about the pilot for Buck Rogers. That seems so random, something easy to miss, and yet you were there.
 
danoyse said:
The 1979 release was the pre-Empire release. I remember seeing the trailer at the end of the movie.
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Yeah, that is true. but you would think they could have made a killing in April as well.
 
DarthSkywalker said:
Yeah, that is true. but you would think they could have made a killing in April as well.
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Probably. I still remember how weird it was to see new Star Wars footage after seeing the first movie again.

This was the trailer they showed. And yes, that is Harrison Ford doing the narration:

[YT]JNwNXF9Y6kY[/YT]
 
danoyse said:
Probably. I still remember how weird it was to see new Star Wars footage after seeing the first movie again.

This was the trailer they showed. And yes, that is Harrison Ford doing the narration:

[YT]JNwNXF9Y6kY[/YT]
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I've always loved that trailer. :woot:
 
danoyse said:
My parents took me to see the original SW in 1977 when I was 3. My mom says today that they took me because they thought I’d like the robots, and they wound up creating a monster. :funny:

My littlest nephew just turned 3, but we didn’t take him to Star Wars. He’s seen Minions, Inside Out, and The Peanuts Movie in the theater, but at early shows that have tons of preschoolers, so he fit right in. He’s good for about an hour before he wants to get up and switch laps or whatever.

It really depends on the kid. My friend brought her 3-year-old and she said they had the best time. He thought it was all real and was going nuts for the whole thing.

We brought my older nephew, who’s about to turn 8, opening weekend, and he was great. I think we might take him again for his birthday this month.
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I think it really does depend on the child. My honorary baby is rambunctious but I don't think that he'd be the worst child in the theater. I watch my brother's kids sometimes and the 4 year old is the worst. Very bossy and a complete smartass but he behaves in the theater from what I've heard. In general I can only be around children for so long before enough is enough. That's not a knock on mothers that is just my own disposition, my material instincts only go so far.

I don't remember going to the movies before 1995 when I saw Mortal Kombat. If my folks took me to see something in the late 80's it's something that I don't remember. My parents were like super strict so I think one mean look from my Daddy would have gotten me to behave. Overall I was fine as a child from what I've been told.
 
At the XD theater for the 10:20 PM showing.

EDIT: Just back. Off to the spoiler thread.....

A note on the theaters. I've seen it in IMAX (Digital) and Cinemark XD. The IMAX projection is clearly better. I "think" it's because the IMAX glasses are better, but it also seems brighter to me. The problem with the Real 3D glasses is that you get ghosting in high contrast scenes....and there are a lot of them (space scenes mainly) in TFA. The IMAX glasses do a very, very good job of minimizing ghosting.
 
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danoyse said:
This was the trailer they showed. And yes, that is Harrison Ford doing the narration:

[YT]JNwNXF9Y6kY[/YT]
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0:54
it's an epic of romance...
[Luke and Leia's romantic kiss scene]

NOOOOOOOOOO! My eyes! My eyes!

I can't believe they didn't cut out that scene from the trailer :woot:
 
Taken from another forum. A comparison of the foreign markets for Star Wars so far and how much Avatar made in those same markets:

cdkoGDt.png


Aside from the UK those markets still have a lot of ground to cover.

-edit- UK and Poland actually missed that there.
 
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How much does it need to pass Avatar domestically? :hehe:
 
There's no question at this point it's gonna pass Avatar domestically. After that point however, the question that will arise though is how close can it can come to Avatar WW?

I don't see it passing it, however that other Cameron flick Titanic and its near 2.2 billion may be up for grabs.
 
Bruce Malone said:
There's no question at this point it's gonna pass Avatar domestically. After that point however, the question that will arise though is how close can it can come to Avatar WW?

I don't see it passing it, however that other Cameron flick Titanic and its near 2.2 billion may be up for grabs.
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The movie has been out three weeks, and it is about to claim $1.5 billion worldwide. Nothing is off the table at this point. January and Feburary legs are the key, everywhere. But if it keeps this pace up, it will easily eclipse Titanic. It will eclipse Titanic before the end of January if China does well. At this rate it will pass a billion domestically.
 
Well things will get interesting indeed once China comes into play.

Seeing 1 billion domestic would be pretty insane. However Avatar grossed 2 billion overseas alone which is maybe almost equally as impressive.

Either way I'm not calling anything definitive yet and it should be fun watching SW edge closer and closer.
 
Nothing would come close to topping a billion in one market. And TFA would do that with one release. TFA is about to become the domestic king in 17 days.
 
In all honesty you're probably not going to get Avatar like repeat value down here. The average price of a regular 2D session in Australia is about $15 USD. 6 years ago when Avatar came out it was closer $13 USD for the more expensive 3D session. It's too expensive to watch movies multiple times down here.
 
DarthSkywalker said:
Nothing would come close to topping a billion in one market. And TFA would do that with one release.
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That's an interesting statement.

Ok let's assume TFA grosses 1.1 billion domestic (very ideal scenario)

That would be a 44% higher gross than the #2 picture domestic all time.

Avatar grossed $2,027,457,462 in just OS receipts that is 32% higher than what #2 Titanic grossed overseas.

However if we compare Avatar to the next highest non-Cameron film OS FF7, Avatar would have grossed 74% more money than the 1.1 billion OS FF7 made.

So I don't necessarily agree that 1 billion domestic in the grand scheme is not comparable to anything Avatar did. As you see no non James Cameron film has come remotely close to what Avatar grossed in overseas markets.

I'm not trying to be pedantic, I just think the box office can be interesting to follow.
 
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Well in the beginning it seemed like such a task that TFA could even reach Avatar domestically. Now it seems to only take 18 days.

With foreign sales, is it more of a slower process? Since it hasn't even been 3 weeks yet? Conservatively I would have said $1.5 billion and it'll probably be more than halfway there by the end of this weekend.
 
Bruce Malone said:
That's an interesting statement.

Ok let's assume TFA grosses 1.1 billion domestic (very ideal scenario)

That would be a 44% higher gross than the #2 picture domestic all time.

Avatar grossed $2,027,457,462 in just OS receipts that is 32% higher than what #2 Titanic grossed overseas.

However if we compare Avatar to the next highest non-Cameron film OS FF7, Avatar would have grossed 74% more money than the 1.1 billion OS FF7 made.

So I don't necessarily agree that 1 billion domestic in the grand scheme is not comparable to anything Avatar did. As you see no non James Cameron film has come remotely close to what Avatar grossed in overseas markets.

I'm not trying to be pedantic, I just think the box office can be interesting to follow.
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Well of course you don't agree. You have been down playing TFA's success since this started. :funny:

TFA is already one of the most profitable film of all time, and it hasn't even been out a full 3 weeks. You can't find Rey stuff on store shelves and they sold $2bil in merch in 4 months. If it only gets to $2.4bil, it is the most profitable film in history in terms of box office do to the much higher domestic gross. It is about to break the domestic gross record in 18 days. This is history. Why do you feel the need to down play it?
 
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Who would want to downplay TFA's success? That's a Jar Jar type move.
 
Octoberist said:
Who would want to downplay TFA's success? That's a Jar Jar type move.
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I can think of quite a few who would. Mainly, those whose movie did not reach their assumed #1 position last year, or fans who already are overconfident in movies not already released yet.
 
Octoberist said:
Who would want to downplay TFA's success? That's a Jar Jar type move.
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Never go full Jar Jar. :funny:

I don't know, but look at Malone's post here and the main box office thread. They clearly have a certain slate.
 
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At this point, why are people doubting that this will surpass Avatar? Just the math says it will, in probably half the time it took Avatar to make it's bank. I read a post in another forum from someone who said it was weeks out from even catching Avengers Domestic B.O., till someone pointed out it did already, then crickets...
 
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