The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Iceman]

The correct answer is, "all da money".

No it was more than that. Common misconception.

 

[InCali]

And yet box office analyst and film historians do it all the time. The idea that these films cannot be compared is just not true. You just need to include the factors.

Just because they make these comparisons doesn't mean those comparisons are accurate. I spent a good part of my life dealing with problems like this (this would probably fall into the realm of multiple regression analysis) and, believe me, getting this "right" would be difficult beyond belief. Even then, you would have to agree on exactly WHAT it is that you are trying to measure before even starting. That, in an of itself, is a problem. Some people have told me it's "tickets sold". That's easy enough. Others have said it's how "popular" a movie is.....oohhhhhhh.....NOW you're starting to get into the muck. How does one measure such a thing? Throw in technological advances....yikes.....how do you measure those effects? Then let's throw in economic factors.....possible, but then you'd have to longitudinally account for changing tastes for particular technologies. Those are just the tip of the iceberg.

I'd say that the best thing to do is start with tickets sold and start from there. The rest of it gets really complex if you are trying for any degree of accuracy. Taking a simple "adjusted for ticket price inflation" should basically get you tickets sold and not a whole lot more.

 

[InCali]

In sum, GWTW, Titanic, Star Wars and TFA

Spoiler

all made

[BLACKOUT]a lot[/BLACKOUT].

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Just because they make these comparisons doesn't mean those comparisons are accurate. I spent a good part of my life dealing with problems like this (this would probably fall into the realm of multiple regression analysis) and, believe me, getting this "right" would be difficult beyond belief. Even then, you would have to agree on exactly WHAT it is that you are trying to measure before even starting. That, in an of itself, is a problem. Some people have told me it's "tickets sold". That's easy enough. Others have said it's how "popular" a movie is.....oohhhhhhh.....NOW you're starting to get into the muck. How does one measure such a thing? Throw in technological advances....yikes.....how do you measure those effects? Then let's throw in economic factors.....possible, but then you'd have to longitudinally account for changing tastes for particular technologies. Those are just the tip of the iceberg.

I'd say that the best thing to do is start with tickets sold and start from there. The rest of it gets really complex if you are trying for any degree of accuracy. Taking a simple "adjusted for ticket price inflation" should basically get you tickets sold and not a whole lot more.

I never mentioned popularity. I have always said tickets sold, which is exactly what adjusting for inflation is suppose to show. The thing that is a problem there is the new formats, but that is in favor of today's films, not a mark against them.

 

[Rocketman]

My cinemark theater was sold out today at noon.

NOON.

 

[Horhey]

My cinemark theater was sold out today at noon.

NOON.

That's cause people are telling other people (including females) that they gotta watch the Star Wars.

 

[InCali]

I never mentioned popularity. I have always said tickets sold, which is exactly what adjusting for inflation is suppose to show. The thing that is a problem there is the new formats, but that is in favor of today's films, not a mark against them.

Tickets sold is tickets sold. I've never had any issue with tracking that. That's always been easy to figure. Sure, less tickets will be sold today because (I think) tickets cost more in real $$$, more movies being released, changes in technology, etc (the last two are probably huge). More movies being released is offset (I don't know by how much) by more theaters and people. Those would seem to work in opposite directions.

The bottom line is that tickets sold is affected by a bunch of external conditions and I don't know of anyone who has taken a real stab at figuring out how to correct for those conditions. The adjusted for inflation stat people use is, as I understand it, tickets sold. Why not just call it what it is rather than confusing the issue (which is what I think those words do)?

 

[Iceman]

Tickets sold aren't an exact science as a measure either. I can see a film at a fraction of the cost in a regional cinema early on a Sunday afternoon (and often do for non-blockbusters) or I can go to central London on opening night. If they reduce the price of one of my favourites enough I'll see it 10 times. If they put TFA on for $0.01 it would beat GWTW's sales too lol. It's a funny one as ticket sales at not even the primary objective, these films are made to make profit as opposed to just revenue or unit sales. If they can make the same by selling fewer higher priced tickets at less venues, that's preferable.

 

[InCali]

Tickets sold aren't an exact science as a measure either. I can see a film at a fraction of the cost in a regional cinema early on a Sunday afternoon (and often do for non-blockbusters) or I can go to central London on opening night. If they reduce the price of one of my favourites enough I'll see it 10 times. If they put TFA on for $0.01 it would beat GWTW's sales too lol. It's a funny one as ticket sales at not even the primary objective, these films are made to make profit as opposed to just revenue or unit sales. If they can make the same by selling fewer higher priced tickets at less venues, that's preferable.

Very true. Basically, we'll never get to exact number of tickets sold unless they track that. As in anything, we're just trying to get close. Average price isn't going to give you the ratio of people who paid premium (IMAX, etc.) or 2D (or at Auntie Iris's Nickelodeon). You just sort of throw everything in the wash, weight it on average, and live with the results.

 

[TX85]

So happy and proud of the sucess, I thought it would have peaked by now and would have been great enough but this is amazing!

I'm not sure any of the future SW movies will pass this but I sure hope they all at least come close to matching this.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I think if anything, Episode VIII will beat this given it's riding the hype off this film a year and a half later, which is sooner than common wisdom to strike when the iron is hot so it can only be better for it. Though the only thing in its way is that it has more competition in the summer movie season.

 

[writer0327]

I can only imagine what the numbers will be like for Ep VIII. One can only imagine it will be 1.5x what we're seeing in TFA, especially considering that the surrounding hype, trailers, and talk will be even greater than TFA's.

 

[cheungcheung]

I can only imagine what the numbers will be like for Ep VIII. One can only imagine it will be 1.5x what we're seeing in TFA, especially considering that the surrounding hype, trailers, and talk will be even greater than TFA's.

I doubt it. The opening weekend may be higher but I don't think it'll do better than TFA.

 

[Silver Surfer]

SW8 will see some depreciation, it will still be in the same ballpark as SW7 but it won't beat it. Similar to TA1 and AoU.

 

[Vincanws]

I'm a little more curious how Rogue One will be affected. Especially if the movie ends up more of a disappointment. How it might then go on to affect episode VIII.

 

[InCali]

So happy and proud of the sucess, I thought it would have peaked by now and would have been great enough but this is amazing!

I'm not sure any of the future SW movies will pass this but I sure hope they all at least come close to matching this.

I posted this chart for last Friday. It's been updated through Sunday and it gives you a pretty good visual representation of how the movie is doing compared to others. Note the "knee" of other movies and where is starts. Also note that Titanic and, to a lesser extent, Avatar have less bend in the knee. That's due to the holds they had over time.

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/comparisons/All-Time-Top-Grossing-Films

 

[Bruce Malone]

Never go full Jar Jar.

I don't know, but look at Malone's post here and the main box office thread. They clearly have a certain slate.

Hey let's keep things from getting personal here please.

I don't have a vendetta at all, I don't feel particularly tied to either Star Wars or Avatar.

Like I mentioned I'm a fan of tracking things like the box office.

Also how have I ever downplayed TFA's success? I predicted 2 billion WW a while ago and people here still flamed me for being a hater just because I won't say for a fact it will pass Avatar's 2.7 billion.

I'm actually approaching things here without a vested emotional attachment and I'm not ashamed of that.

 

[JC00]

Really 19 million is all they think today? That does so way to low. What did it make last sunday?

43m

 

[InCali]

I got to thinking about comparable movies to TFA and, so far, most people have said "Avatar". So, here's a comparable movie....The Phantom Menace. I think the general consensus is that it isn't quite as good overall, but it IS a SW movie and it DID open after a long SW movie drought. We are about 1 week away from day 25 and let's look at the comparisons.

Day 25 (TPM) - 288M
Day 25 (TFA) - 870M (Est)

By day 50, TFM had basically played out, but added about 33% of it's 25 day total.
IF, TFA played out along the same drops, we expect it to add another 290M for a total of 1.16B.

I don't think it will hold as well as TPM because TFA's numbers are so staggering, but I do think it can add substantially to its BO numbers well past 50 days.

What think?

 

[spiderman2]

43m

oh ok

I got to thinking about comparable movies to TFA and, so far, most people have said "Avatar". So, here's a comparable movie....The Phantom Menace. I think the general consensus is that it isn't quite as good overall, but it IS a SW movie and it DID open after a long SW movie drought. We are about 1 week away from day 25 and let's look at the comparisons.

Day 25 (TPM) - 288M
Day 25 (TFA) - 870M (Est)

By day 50, TFM had basically played out, but added about 33% of it's 25 day total.
IF, TFA played out along the same drops, we expect it to add another 290M for a total of 1.16B.

I don't think it will hold as well as TPM because TFA's numbers are so staggering, but I do think it can add substantially to its BO numbers well past 50 days.

What think?

Interesting I am not sure but I am not good with know how boxoffice works but if less say the movie only makes about half of that other 290 so 145 to the 870 that would be about 1.015 billion so still over a billion. I think the interesting thing will be next week now that the movie has been out for over a few weeks and with school now not being out.

 

[InCali]

oh ok



Interesting I am not sure but I am not good with know how boxoffice works but if less say the movie only makes about half of that other 290 so 145 to the 870 that would be about 1.015 billion so still over a billion. I think the interesting thing will be next week now that the movie has been out for over a few weeks and with school now not being out.

I think that will be informative too If you look at the chart, you'll see that the "knees" (flattening out of BO #s) usually kicks in around the end of the 3rd week. It'll be interesting to see the next (4th) weeks numbers too. By then you can really start to see the trend develop.

If you look at Titanic's numbers, it's almost a straight line from day 25 to day 100.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

http://deadline.com/2016/01/star-wa...daddys-home-international-results-1201675263/

With very strong holds throughout Europe and significant jumps in Asia, Star Wars: The Force Awakens saw an international weekend gross of $96.3M, a 29.7% drop from frame 2. After 19 days in release, the offshore cume is $770.5M and the global total is $1,510.766M

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Hey let's keep things from getting personal here please.

I don't have a vendetta at all, I don't feel particularly tied to either Star Wars or Avatar.

Like I mentioned I'm a fan of tracking things like the box office.

Also how have I ever downplayed TFA's success? I predicted 2 billion WW a while ago and people here still flamed me for being a hater just because I won't say for a fact it will pass Avatar's 2.7 billion.

I'm actually approaching things here without a vested emotional attachment and I'm not ashamed of that.

No, it is your consistent need to come in here and downplay what the film has done consistently comparing it unfavorably to Avatar. I was not the first poster to notice it, and that person has no attachment to Star Wars.

 

[rashad]

Episode VIII can be a better movie than TFA and still make less money. TFA was the proverbial perfect storm.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I see very little chance VIII does the same kind of business as TFA. That being said, I feel like $1.5bil WW is a lock, and it could do another $2bil. Which in and of itself would be insane. Let's say TFA ends with $2.5bil, Rogue One does a billion and VIII does $2bil. That would be a cool $5.5bil in 18 months and three films. With a Young Han Solo flick on deck.