The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[spiderman2]

I think that will be informative too If you look at the chart, you'll see that the "knees" (flattening out of BO #s) usually kicks in around the end of the 3rd week. It'll be interesting to see the next (4th) weeks numbers too. By then you can really start to see the trend develop.

If you look at Titanic's numbers, it's almost a straight line from day 25 to day 100.

What do you mean by straight line? But yeah if the movie doesn't fail off to much next week I think we could maybe see 1.1-1.2 billion USA where if it does fail off a lot could be more like 1 billion. When it comes to WW how much more did avatar get from when they relist it the second time? I have heard a few rumors about them maybe bring star wars back in theaters for a short time a little later. Maybe if they bring it back latter that could push it slightly ahead of avatar if it is just short before then.

 

[Bruce Malone]

No, it is your consistent need to come in here and downplay what the film has done consistently comparing it unfavorably to Avatar. I was not the first poster to notice it, and that person has no attachment to Star Wars.

Again you seem to be drawing things from straws.

It's all over the news how TFA is going to pass Avatar domestically, Avatar is the highest grossing film of all-time. Do you honestly think I'm unique in bringing up Avatar in a thread about TFA's box office?

I've made no comments here about the quality of TFA as a film, I've purely discussed numbers. If you want to take these facts as a personal insult on the film that's fine but I don't see how you can?

If you think I'm the last person who's going to compare TFA's BO to Avatar's than you have another thing coming.

My last post was purely a percentages breakdown comparing TFA's pace to Avatar's and you somehow took that as an insult? This is a box office thread man.

 

[spiderman2]

http://deadline.com/2016/01/star-wa...daddys-home-international-results-1201675263/

Want so the movie did better in Asia then it did the week before?

Episode VIII can be a better movie than TFA and still make less money. TFA was the proverbial perfect storm.

That is true then tends to be some sort of relation between reviews and money that a movie makes but at the same time even if a movie is better doesn't mean it will always make more money then the one before. Spider man back in the day made about 820m and then spider man 2 came out was even better but made about 40m less at 780m. At the same time this is star wars we are talking about so who knows.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Again you seem to be drawing things from straws.

It's all over the news how TFA is going to pass Avatar domestically, Avatar is the highest grossing film of all-time. Do you honestly think I'm unique in bringing up Avatar in a thread about TFA's box office?

I've made no comments here about the quality of TFA as a film, I've purely discussed numbers. If you want to take these facts as a personal insult on the film that's fine but I don't see how you can?

If you think I'm the last person who's going to compare TFA's BO to Avatar's than you have another thing coming.

My last post was purely a percentages breakdown comparing TFA's pace to Avatar's and you somehow took that as an insult? This is a box office thread man.

There is zero problem with comparing the film to Avatar in terms of box office. It is how you do it. It slated to one view on this. I was trying to be polite about it, but I got kind of tired of it last night, with that ridiculous chart while clearly ignoring that TFA is now at $1.5bil less then three weeks after its release. If you disagree with me, just ask I SEE SPIDEY how she feels about your post here. A poster who doesn't even care about Star Wars.

And your chart was kind of ridiculous not even 3 weeks into the film's release. That chart would be relevant say in 2 months. If the treads established so far continue, the box office outside of China will fall between 2.3 and 2.4 billion as domestically it is on pace for 1.1bil and 1.2bil overseas, minus China. In which case, China could very well put it over the top. But you continue to ignore that.

 

[spiderman2]

Again you seem to be drawing things from straws.

It's all over the news how TFA is going to pass Avatar domestically, Avatar is the highest grossing film of all-time. Do you honestly think I'm unique in bringing up Avatar in a thread about TFA's box office?

I've made no comments here about the quality of TFA as a film, I've purely discussed numbers. If you want to take these facts as a personal insult on the film that's fine but I don't see how you can?

If you think I'm the last person who's going to compare TFA's BO to Avatar's than you have another thing coming.

My last post was purely a percentages breakdown comparing TFA's pace to Avatar's and you somehow took that as an insult? This is a box office thread man.

That percentage breakdown was interesting thing and most likely the movie is going to make more then titanic WW so the 2 big question left are can it make 1 billion USA and will it make more WW then avatar?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

That percentage breakdown was interesting thing and most likely the movie is going to make more then titanic WW so the 2 big question left are can it make 1 billion USA and will it make more WW then avatar?

It will make a billion US. Unless it drops off a cliff, it is going to do a billion rather easily.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=avatar.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=starwars7.htm

TFA's third week is roughly $200m.

Star Wars is beating Avatar handily week to week. So even if it starts to dip to matching Avatar, it has another $370m left in the tank. If it continues the trend of beating Avatar as impressively as it has been we could see another $500m. As crazy as that sounds, the next two weeks coming in at $100m each is not far fetched, and should be a real possibility at this point.

 

[spiderman2]

I see very little chance VIII does the same kind of business as TFA. That being said, I feel like $1.5bil WW is a lock, and it could do another $2bil. Which in and of itself would be insane. Let's say TFA ends with $2.5bil, Rogue One does a billion and VIII does $2bil. That would be a cool $5.5bil in 18 months and three films. With a Young Han Solo flick on deck.

That would not be bad numbers at all. How many movies would kill for those numbers lol. At the same time if the movie dropped off by 500m from 7 to 8 that would kind of suck. I do think part of the reason 7 is doing so while is because it has been 10 years from the last star wars movie. I think that is part of why Jurassic world did so good to. At the same time this is star wars a franchise that just about always does great. I mean episode 1 made about 950m before it was in theaters a second time and that was like 16 and a half years ago and with no 3d either. So when it comes to star wars I am never going to say never and china is continuing to get bigger and bigger for movies. So by the time episode 8 comes out will china have grown a lot in just a year and a half or will it only be a little bigger? Part of me thinks there still may be some people who are not going to see episode 7 because of how bad the prequles where and that 7 repatation could get some people back for 8 that where not wanting to see 7 because of the prequles.

 

[Bruce Malone]

That percentage breakdown was interesting thing and most likely the movie is going to make more then titanic WW so the 2 big question left are can it make 1 billion USA and will it make more WW then avatar?

Yeah and that's pretty much what I brought up and got shot down for. Especially the point of if it can make more WW than Avatar.

I don't know if it's all the new members but I don't remember people in Box Office threads being so thin skinned in the past?

In the old Avatar box office threads you had hardcore Titanic film defenders trying to track down the amount of tickets Avatar sold to prove that Titanic should still be counted as the #1 film of all-time and me posting a chart comparing OS grosses as of so far is going too far?

Every thread on SHH is pretty much agree with group think or get out now...

 

[DarthSkywalker]

That would not be bad numbers at all. How many movies would kill for those numbers lol. At the same time if the movie dropped off by 500m from 7 to 8 that would kind of suck. I do think part of the reason 7 is doing so while is because it has been 10 years from the last star wars movie. I think that is part of why Jurassic world did so good to. At the same time this is star wars a franchise that just about always does great. I mean episode 1 made about 950m before it was in theaters a second time and that was like 16 and a half years ago and with no 3d either. So when it comes to star wars I am never going to say never and china is continuing to get bigger and bigger for movies. So by the time episode 8 comes out will china have grown a lot in just a year and a half or will it only be a little bigger? Part of me thinks there still may be some people who are not going to see episode 7 because of how bad the prequles where and that 7 repatation could get some people back for 8 that where not wanting to see 7 because of the prequles.

Why would it suck? The drop from Star Wars to Empire was the same. That is just how it is with films this big.

 

[InCali]

What do you mean by straight line? But yeah if the movie doesn't fail off to much next week I think we could maybe see 1.1-1.2 billion USA where if it does fail off a lot could be more like 1 billion. When it comes to WW how much more did avatar get from when they relist it the second time? I have heard a few rumors about them maybe bring star wars back in theaters for a short time a little later. Maybe if they bring it back latter that could push it slightly ahead of avatar if it is just short before then.

Say a movie does 20M for 5 weeks in a row. That will look like a straight line when you chart the cumulative BO #s. If a movie does 50M then 40M then 25 then 12 then 6, the curve will form a "knee" (a bent one) as the BO totals fall off. The reason Titanic's numbers look like basically a straight line for about 75 days is because there was very little fall off in BO #s.

 

[spiderman2]

It will make a billion US. Unless it drops off a cliff, it is going to do a billion rather easily.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=avatar.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=starwars7.htm

TFA's third week is roughly $200m.

Star Wars is beating Avatar handily week to week. So even if it starts to dip to matching Avatar, it has another $370m left in the tank. If it continues the trend of beating Avatar as impressively as it has been we could see another $500m.

So you are saying we should see between 370-500m more in USA by the end? That would put the movie at like 1.10 billion to 1.24 billion USA.

 

[spiderman2]

Why would it suck? The drop from Star Wars to Empire was the same. That is just how it is with films this big.

Because that would be like a 20% drop that is a good amount to drop. I would rather it make more or have a small drop even more so if it is even a better movie.

 

[spiderman2]

Have we had a update tonight to see if the movie and 19m today USA may be higher then that?

 

[InCali]

It will make a billion US. Unless it drops off a cliff, it is going to do a billion rather easily.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=avatar.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=starwars7.htm

TFA's third week is roughly $200m.

Star Wars is beating Avatar handily week to week. So even if it starts to dip to matching Avatar, it has another $370m left in the tank. If it continues the trend of beating Avatar as impressively as it has been we could see another $500m. As crazy as that sounds, the next two weeks coming in at $100m each is not far fetched, and should be a real possibility at this point.

It's actually closer to 390 and still rising. Avatar made a LOT of it's money further out in time. At some point, that differential will probably start to go down. The question is how much.........

 

[spiderman2]

So the movie comes out in china next sat how much does ever one think it will make in china on sat and sunday to start? Also how much do you guys think the movie will be at WW by the end of sunday next week.

 

[spiderman2]

Say a movie does 20M for 5 weeks in a row. That will look like a straight line when you chart the cumulative BO #s. If a movie does 50M then 40M then 25 then 12 then 6, the curve will form a "knee" (a bent one) as the BO totals fall off. The reason Titanic's numbers look like basically a straight line for about 75 days is because there was very little fall off in BO #s.

Oh so how does that relate to star wars?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's actually closer to 390 and still rising. Avatar made a LOT of it's money further out in time. At some point, that differential will probably start to go down. The question is how much.........

What do you mean about 390?

Avatar did have long legs, and it also depends on the home release. If they hold out on TFA until June, I think they could get a lot more out of TFA on the back end. And they might just do that if it is looking like they could break Avatar's record. Basically, it is all about how China goes right now. $300m there and Star Wars is in business.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Oh so how does that relate to star wars?

The box office for Star Wars is going to start flatting out soon, as most movies do in those weeks. The question is the range it which it does so.

 

[spiderman2]

It will make a billion US. Unless it drops off a cliff, it is going to do a billion rather easily.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=avatar.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=starwars7.htm

TFA's third week is roughly $200m.

Star Wars is beating Avatar handily week to week. So even if it starts to dip to matching Avatar, it has another $370m left in the tank. If it continues the trend of beating Avatar as impressively as it has been we could see another $500m. As crazy as that sounds, the next two weeks coming in at $100m each is not far fetched, and should be a real possibility at this point.

Really I would think 2 weeks from now the movie would have like zero changes to make 100m. I mean this weekend looks like it is going to be around 90 million. So doesn't that mean next weekend could be like 50m or something? So that would mean the movie would have to make 50m on the other 4 days Monday threw Thursday. That would be 12.5 million for those days. So that sounds like it could that week but then the week after wouldn't the movie drop even more?

 

[spiderman2]

The box office for Star Wars is going to start flatting out soon, as most movies do in those weeks. The question is the range it which it does so.

So you are saying that the movie in a week or 2 will start dropping and then kind of stop and make around the same amount each week for a little while?

 

[spiderman2]

What do you mean about 390?

Avatar did have long legs, and it also depends on the home release. If they hold out on TFA until June, I think they could get a lot more out of TFA on the back end. And they might just do that if it is looking like they could break Avatar's record. Basically, it is all about how China goes right now. $300m there and Star Wars is in business.

So if the movie makes around 300m in china you think the movie has a shot at the WW box office record? About the home release there is the rumor about apirl 5th but that sounds way to soon. Has much has I would love to get the movie soon that just doesn't sound right. Most movies it is like 4-5 months from the time it comes out in theaters to DVD and apirl 5th would only be about 3.5 months. The only movie I can remember coming out from theater to DVD in less then 4 months was amazing spider man 2 but it was also not even close to being has succefull has star wars is. So with how while the movie is doing it would make even less sinces for them to have the movie out that fast on DVD. I am thinking may or june for the home that then could be 5-6 months depending on what time in the month it where to come out.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Really I would think 2 weeks from now the movie would have like zero changes to make 100m. I mean this weekend looks like it is going to be around 90 million. So doesn't that mean next weekend could be like 50m or something? So that would mean the movie would have to make 50m on the other 4 days Monday threw Thursday. That would be 12.5 million for those days. So that sounds like it could that week but then the week after wouldn't the movie drop even more?

Why do you think the weekend drops will be so bad? You are predicting a week to week change of over 50%?

 

[spiderman2]

Why do you think the weekend drops will be so bad? You are predicting a week to week change of over 50%?

I don't think it will be bad but from weekend 1 to 2 was about 40% and if this weekend ends at 90m that would again be about 40% and now with school going back next week couldn't that drop be even more?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So if the movie makes around 300m in china you think the movie has a shot at the WW box office record? About the home release there is the rumor about apirl 5th but that sounds way to soon. Has much has I would love to get the movie soon that just doesn't sound right. Most movies it is like 4-5 months from the time it comes out in theaters to DVD and apirl 5th would only be about 3.5 months. The only movie I can remember coming out from theater to DVD in less then 4 months was amazing spider man 2 but it was also not even close to being has succefull has star wars is. So with how while the movie is doing it would make even less sinces for them to have the movie out that fast on DVD. I am thinking may or june for the home that then could be 5-6 months depending on what time in the month it where to come out.

December movies coming out on blu ray in March/April all the time. And yes, if it does $300m in China, it will be close imo. Very close if they hold off the home release until sometime in May or June.

 

[spiderman2]

December movies coming out on blu ray in March/April all the time. And yes, if it does $300m in China, it will be close imo. Very close if they hold off the home release until sometime in May or June.

Really I have never heard of a movie coming out that fast before? Are those movies big movies though? If the movie continues to do great I think they will let it stay out longer. I am predicting 500m in china even if that sounds nuts.