The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Nardz937]

Will become #2 worldwide of all-time comfortably.

Not sure it's going to surpass Avatar worldwide though at this point.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Really I have never heard of a movie coming out that fast before? Are those movies big movies though? If the movie continues to do great I think they will let it stay out longer. I am predicting 500m in china even if that sounds nuts.

I believe all the Hobbit films came out in March or early April.

 

[spiderman2]

I believe all the Hobbit films came out in March or early April.

Oh interesting that is a first I have heard of such thing before.

 

[smappy45]

Will become #2 worldwide of all-time comfortably.

Not sure it's going to surpass Avatar worldwide though at this point.

Yeah, #1 WW is hard to reach. 2B overseas is impossible at this rate.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Oh interesting that is a first I have heard of such thing before.

It has been like this for awhile actually. Because of award season, what you usually get is this:

Sept = January
October/November = February and March
December = March and April

 

[spiderman2]

Yeah, #1 WW is hard to reach. 2B overseas is impossible at this rate.

Even if it makes 500m in china?

It has been like this for awhile actually. Because of award season, what you usually get is this:

Sept = January
October/November = February and March
December = March and April

I don't watch has much movies has most people but again 3-4 months for a movie sounds about a month faster then normal in less it is getting even faster in just the last year or so. I remember in like the 90's maybe even early 2000's it took like a year for a movie to go from theater to DVD.

 

[MurkeNyou]

Will become #2 worldwide of all-time comfortably.

Not sure it's going to surpass Avatar worldwide though at this point.

How does that math work? It's almost there in 1/3rd the time, you think people are just going to stop seeing it or something? It still has full audience occupancy worldwide, it's just starting to ease up.

 

[KangConquers]

Even if it makes 500m in china?



I don't watch has much movies has most people but again 3-4 months for a movie sounds about a month faster then normal in less it is getting even faster in just the last year or so. I remember in like the 90's maybe even early 2000's it took like a year for a movie to go from theater to DVD.

The movie is set to make between $1.8-2 B without China. Unless China is going to deliver an additional $800 M-$1 B, the film winds up at #2 ww. Star Wars is just performing like a bigger Jurassic World in too many territories, and isn't getting those insane numbers Avatar got in Spain ($109 M), Frances ($175 M), Germany ($161 M) Russia ($114 M), Mexico ($44 M). Most blockbusters have a few cold territories. Avatar had none.

 

[spiderman2]

The movie is set to make between $1.8-2 B without China. Unless China is going to deliver an additional $800 M-$1 B, the film winds up at #2 ww. Star Wars is just performing like a bigger Jurassic World in too many territories, and isn't getting those insane numbers Avatar got in Spain ($109 M), Frances ($175 M), Germany ($161 M) Russia ($114 M), Mexico ($44 M). Most blockbusters have a few cold territories. Avatar had none.

How much has this movie made in some of those places so far?

 

[Nardz937]

How does that math work? It's almost there in 1/3rd the time, you think people are just going to stop seeing it or something? It still has full audience occupancy worldwide, it's just starting to ease up.

I will admit math is not my strong suit, but it's beginning to slow (as most movies do in their third week) and has 1.3 billion more to go to surpass it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The movie is set to make between $1.8-2 B without China. Unless China is going to deliver an additional $800 M-$1 B, the film winds up at #2 ww. Star Wars is just performing like a bigger Jurassic World in too many territories, and isn't getting those insane numbers Avatar got in Spain ($109 M), Frances ($175 M), Germany ($161 M) Russia ($114 M), Mexico ($44 M). Most blockbusters have a few cold territories. Avatar had none.

This is wrong. Domestic gross is going to pass $1bil. Could go as high as $1.3bil. Internationally, it is out grossing the domestic number without China. So add another 1.1-1.3bil. How in the world do you get $1.8bil to $2bil? It is already at $1.5bil.

 

[spiderman2]

This is wrong. Domestic gross is going to pass $1bil. Could go as high as $1.3bil. Internationally, it is out grossing the domestic number without China. So add another 1.1-1.3bil. How in the world do you get $1.8bil to $2bil? It is already at $1.5bil.

Right so the movie is at about 1.5 billion and sounds like it has at least another 250m in USA left if it then does the same in the rest of the world out side of china that would mean 2 billion right there and then say 500m in china like I said that would be 2.5 billion.

 

[Marvolo]

This is wrong. Domestic gross is going to pass $1bil. Could go as high as $1.3bil. Internationally, it is out grossing the domestic number without China. So add another 1.1-1.3bil. How in the world do you get $1.8bil to $2bil? It is already at $1.5bil.

And with the rumors of a theatrical re-release happening at Easter it's going to make a lot more than 2 billion. Even if they don't do a re-release at Easter they will probably do one at some point. Especially if they get close to Avatar's worldwide gross but don't surpass it in the initial theatrical run. Disney isn't going to rush this golden goose out of theaters. They want that top spot.

 

[spiderman2]

And with the rumors of a theatrical re-release happening at Easter it's going to make a lot more than 2 billion. Even if they don't do a re-release at Easter they will probably do one at some point. Especially if they get close to Avatar's worldwide gross but don't surpass it in the initial theatrical run. Disney isn't going to rush this golden goose out of theaters. They want that top spot.

When is easter?

 

[smappy45]

Oh, does Avatar's current record include the re-releases numbers? If that's true and TFA is gonna have a re-release too, there's still a chance for TFA to be #1 WW, then.

 

[kickass]

Where are these rumours of a re-release coming?

If true, re-release this beautiful Rancor with 5-10 minutes of extra footage and call it a day.

 

[spiderman2]

Oh, does Avatar's current record include the re-releases numbers? If that's true and TFA is gonna have a re-release too, there's still a chance for TFA to be #1 WW, then.

I am pretty sure it counts.

 

[spiderman2]

Where are these rumours of a re-release coming?

If true, re-release this beautiful Rancor with 5-10 minutes of extra footage and call it a day.

I am not sure just saw a few people on hear talk about it. When avatar got re-released did it have any extra footage?

 

[PacificBoy]

500m in China isn't entirely out of the question, spiderman2, but we probably need to wait and see the movie's progress at least a few days past its OW. Presales aren't tracking well at the moment, at least according to figures from maoyan (the largest Chinese online ticketing platform). About 11m yuan as of this time.

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/78536?_v_=yes

For comparison, see the tracking between TFA and Sherlock: The Abominable Bride. The latter opening in China was announced only recently and has racked up a larger presales number.

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/343761?_v_=yes

These are just some numbers, however. Hardly conclusive. And there's still a few more days for it to pick up.

 

[spiderman2]

500m in China isn't entirely out of the question, spiderman2, but we probably need to wait and see the movie's progress at least a few days past its OW. Presales aren't tracking well at the moment, at least according to figures from maoyan (the largest Chinese online ticketing platform). About 11m yuan as of this time.

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/78536?_v_=yes

For comparison, see the tracking between TFA and Sherlock: The Abominable Bride. The latter opening in China was announced only recently and has racked up a larger presales number.

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/343761?_v_=yes

These are just some numbers, however. Hardly conclusive. And there's still a few more days for it to pick up.

Interesting but with those numbers being in chinees I am not sure what all the numbers are for but if you look at the number up at the top by the movie it is higher for star wars but I have no idea what that means. I think once we find out the true numbers for this movie for this weekend that just ended and not just estimats that I am going to stay away from the boxoffice stuff in till the next Monday a few days after the movie comes out in china and hope that I come back and see some even more crazy numbers not just WW but china has while.

 

[PacificBoy]

想看 means 'want to see'. Just a numeric representation of interest, clicks. The presales numbers are under the first column from the left, 日票房 or 'daily ticket house'

Agree with ya on rechecking on the BO after the weekend. People are still settling into the new year, so activity all through should go up.

 

[smappy45]

When avatar got re-released did it have any extra footage?

Wikipedia:

Extended theatrical re-release

In July 2010, Cameron confirmed that there would be an extended theatrical re-release of the film on August 27, 2010, exclusively in 3D theaters and IMAX 3D. Avatar: Special Edition includes an additional nine minutes of footage, all of which is CG, including an extension of the sex scene and various other scenes that were cut from the original theatrical film. This extended re-release resulted in the film's run time approaching the current IMAX platter maximum of 170 minutes, thereby leaving less time for the end credits. Cameron stated that the nine minutes of added scenes cost more than $1 million a minute to produce and finish. During its 12-week re-release, Avatar: Special Edition grossed an additional $10.74 million in North America and $22.46 million overseas for a worldwide total of $33.2 million.

Which reminds me JJ Abrams said that he has no intention in releasing a Director's Cut edition (adding extra footage) for the Bluray release, so I'm guessing he won't include any extra footage either for a re-release.

Interesting fact. TFA was #2 in Japan's BO rank for two weeks, but latest news says on the 3rd week it went up to #1. Which shows that it may not explode during opening, but the ticket sales is pretty consistent, and probably Japanese weren't in a hurry to see the movie, gained positive reviews and it made more people interested to come and see it. I wonder if this can be an indication for China?

 

[Marvolo]

When is easter?

Sunday March 27

 

[PacificBoy]

Interesting fact. TFA was #2 in Japan's BO rank for two weeks, but latest news says on the 3rd week it went up to #1. Which shows that it may not explode during opening, but the ticket sales is pretty consistent, and probably Japanese weren't in a hurry to see the movie, gained positive reviews and it made more people interested to come and see it. I wonder if this can be an indication for China?

I'd say TFA's performance in Japan isn't a huge barometer for China. The Mandarin speaking countries like HK and Taiwan tend to be better indicators. Even South Korea at times. And out of the east Asian countries, Japan is the only one which you can say has an inbuilt SW fan following. (The SW mythology follows its culture the closest after all.)

Also, Japan is considered a slow-burning market for movies, i.e. movies tend to have a lengthy theatrical run. Yokai Watch, which held off TFA for two weeks, was incredibly frontloaded because it's a beloved kids' franchise and opened during or close to its winter vacation.

 

[InCali]

Oh so how does that relate to star wars?

We don't know just yet, it's too early to tell. If you look at the graph, it looks like it's going to shoot off the top of the page (which it is....they need a bigger page t: ). Once we get to about week 4 or 5, we'll start seeing that bend we almost always see. You can see it a little bit now, but not much.