The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[PacificBoy]

Interesting I have always found it hard to find box office numbers for china for some reason. While lets say the movie makes 200m in china then how much do you think the movie would end up making WW by the time ever thing is done?

For western press I find Deadline, Variety and Hollywood Reporter are quite decent outlets for Chinese BO updates. But there should be more outlets since China is becoming a major player.

No idea for WW since I'm no box office watcher. The regulars like InCali and co are able to give you a more informed opinion. I'm only here due to TFA making the news daily.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

While sure while over half but sounds like it still has around 250 million maybe more left in the tank in the USA so that is still a good amount left.

It more then likely has more then that left in the tank.

 

[spiderman2]

It more then likely has more then that left in the tank.

While I did say at least lol but it sounds like people are saying 1billion to 1.2 billion USA and if that happens that would be 250-450 million more USA.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't know...Kung Fu Panda 2 had rather mediocre numbers, at least domestically anyway. I believe it grossed less than the first domestically, didn't it?

But, unless things change & pick up quickly, I think Ride Along 2 is the only release of this month that will be any real competition for TFA.

Yep Darth is right I am talking about China in that post.

Kung Fu Panda 3 is easily going to be number one in North America it's weekend though. I don't think it's going do record numbers or anything but it will open big enough to be number one. The Force Awakens is doing amazingly and will continue to do amazingly and anybody trying to downplay it's numbers are just being silly but I think some are mistaken with how long it will stay number one. It's going to be number one this weekend with about 50mil, give or take a few mil and then who knows? It depends on how well Ride Along 2 does next weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yep Darth is right I am talking about China in that post.

Kung Fu Panda 3 is easily going to be number one in North America it's weekend though. I don't think it's going do record numbers or anything but it will open big enough to be number one.

I sure hope it does. I feel like I am the only one really looking forward to it, but I adore the Kung Fu Panda series. My favorite martial arts series this side of Once Upon a Time in China. Probably my favorite. The last film didn't do great domestically, but it did better overseas. But that was all the way back in 2011.

 

[spiderman2]

So I just saw this thought it was interesting. So at the same point in time star wars is ahead of avatar internatly by about 108 million but of course it opened much higher to.

http://deadline.com/2016/01/star-wa...national-box-office-record-avatar-1201676082/

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I sure hope it does. I feel like I am the only one really looking forward to it, but I adore the Kung Fu Panda series. My favorite martial arts series this side of Once Upon a Time in China. Probably my favorite. The last film didn't do great domestically, but it did better overseas. But that was all the way back in 2011.

I'm not interested in the series but if you like it babe then I hope that it does well. I figure if Dreamworks got Home to open with 52million then Kung Fu Panda will open around 40 million and that will be enough to be number one.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm not interested in the series but if you like it babe then I hope that it does well. I figure if Dreamworks got Home to open with 52million then Kung Fu Panda will open around 40 million and that will be enough to be number one.

It should do well enough, but the date is concerning to me. The international gross should carry it though. I think that is why they have been leading the push in China, not the US.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It should do well enough, but the date is concerning to me. The international gross should carry it though. I think that is why they have been leading the push in China, not the US.

The release date isn't amazing but I don't think that March 18th was a smart date. If the film does well opening weekend at least it won't have to go up against a huge movie in it's second weekend.

 

[spiderman2]

Yep Darth is right I am talking about China in that post.

Kung Fu Panda 3 is easily going to be number one in North America it's weekend though. I don't think it's going do record numbers or anything but it will open big enough to be number one. The Force Awakens is doing amazingly and will continue to do amazingly and anybody trying to downplay it's numbers are just being silly but I think some are mistaken with how long it will stay number one. It's going to be number one this weekend with about 50mil, give or take a few mil and then who knows? It depends on how well Ride Along 2 does next weekend.

So ride along 2 comes out on jan16? I have heard some people say that they think the weekend after this weekend so that weekend that ride along 2 comes out could have a small drop because it is a holliday weekend that weekend. What do you think about that? Like I have heard people say that maybe this weekend it does 54m and the weekend after like 50m.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I was going to get into MLK weekend in that post but that was a whole other convo. That's why I'm saying forsure I think it will lose the number one slot in on the Jan 29th weekend. Or at least that's what I'm predicting.

People are going for 54 million but I'm going a little lower than that. I realize that my initial thinking about TFA this past weekend was more right than my revised thoughts. Right now I'm predicting 50 million for this up coming weekend.

 

[spiderman2]

I was going to get into MLK weekend in that post but that was a whole other convo. That's why I'm saying forsure I think it will lose the number one slot in on the Jan 29th weekend. Or at least that's what I'm predicting.

People are going for 54 million but I'm going a little lower than that. I realize that my initial thinking about TFA this past weekend was more right than my revised thoughts. Right now I'm predicting 50 million for this up coming weekend.

Get into it please lol. But how do movies tend to do on MLK weekend?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

How long do you guys think that will take?

To pass JW WW? Probably happens this weekend.

 

[InCali]

Interesting I have always found it hard to find box office numbers for china for some reason. While lets say the movie makes 200m in china then how much do you think the movie would end up making WW by the time ever thing is done? Crazy if you look at 2015 compared to 2007 the biggest movie for the year this last year 2015 made like 11 times has much. Just shows how much china has exploded the last sever years.

I don't think you can say with any reliability based on just BO numbers from China. Some movies (use Kung Fu Panda.....which I have never seen.....for an example) just appeal to the Chinese audience base, so it might clean up in China and not do so well in the US (although I think it does pretty good). Other movies (Maybe TFA is an example....we don't know yet) might just shred in the US and just do fairly well in China. Some domestically made Chinese movies just kill it there, but aren't widely released anywhere else.

If you wanted to figure out generally how movies do, you can either use WW/Chinese/(maybe DOM) overall numbers and figure out the ratio or maybe grab several random movies of different genres and use those as a guideline (average them), but making a solid prediction that would be anywhere near accurate based solely on numbers in China probably isn't going to work. Also remember that there is a limit on the number of movies China allows to be shown. I think someone said it was like 10 or 12 a year??? So maybe just use them and see how much the averages vary to get an idea of whether you can reliably predict anything (unlikely).

Also an important factor is probably the growth of the Chinese movie industry which I understand is growing by leaps and bounds so a snapshot in time might not be helpful down the road. In other words, the situation is constantly in flux. Another big factor is the exchange rate.

Sorry for droning on, but calculating things like this with any level of reliability is far more difficult than most people realize.

 

[InCali]

Get into it please lol. But how do movies tend to do on MLK weekend?

Lower drops because of the Monday holiday. Avatar only dropped 14%, but it wasn't dropping much anyway. With the exception of 2010 (Avatar) a new movie has taken the #1 slot for the last (at least) 10 years (inc. Ride Along). Logically, this is a weekend where studios feel that they can get some bang for their buck. Ride Along did 41M and 48M (inc Monday). I wouldn't be surprised to see the sequel do better.

EDIT: Technically American Sniper wasn't a new release, but it went from almost no theaters to over 3500 so I sort of counted it as a new release.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Early Tuesday estimate from BOT is about the same as Monday, $8.0-8.1 million. So no Tuesday bump. OTOH Avatar dropped 9.5% on the same Tuesday so flat is good!

 

[Erzengel]

$2.2 million to go.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I didn't expect a Tuesday bump because of what Avatar did.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Some more updates from @BoxOffice:

Overseas number now at $799.1 million, so up about $13 million from yesterday.
Domestic now $758.2 million including the $8 million Tuesday estimate.
Total global haul up to $1.5573 billion.
New giant money vaults under construction in Duckburgh: lots.

 

[InCali]

Some more updates from @BoxOffice:

Overseas number now at $799.1 million, so up about $13 million from yesterday.
Domestic now $758.2 million including the $8 million Tuesday estimate.
Total global haul up to $1.5573 billion.
New giant money vaults under construction in Duckburgh: lots.

The 13M OS is good news. I think we're starting to see a trend of better holds OS than DOM. Probably because SW was more front loaded here and because people in other countries like it. 16 OS to 8 DOM (yesterday) is about a 66/33 split. 13 OS to 8 DOM is about a 62/38 split. If you assume about 33% more is left in the tank (about 1B DOM) and that the ongoing split will be about 38/62 (more or less) DOM/OS, and weight it, the final split would be about 46/54 without China. Throw in another 300M there (which might be high) and you are looking at around a 40/60 ratio DOM/OS.

Fascinating, huh???

Hello??? Is anybody home??

 

[InCali]

I didn't expect a Tuesday bump because of what Avatar did.

I didn't either because I get the feeling that a fairly high percentage of people are going to the premium shows and a lot of those aren't discounted. I think 8M (if it holds) is a very good number. Expect a drop today and tomorrow.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

Congratulations Star Wars: The Force Awakens for being the highest grossing film in US history!

 

[InCali]

Congratulations Force Awakens for being the highest grossing film in US history!

I know, right? And it's unbelievable to see it done in such a short period of time. Less than 20 days. BOM is going to have to make up some new records for its database.

EDIT: And its 3rd weekend (Jan1-3) broke the all time opening weekend record for January (American Sniper).

 

[Erzengel]

The rest of the World can have their Avatar, metric system and Futball.

#murica #TFA

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

The rest of the World can have their Avatar, metric system and Futball.

#murica #TFA

**** YEAH!