The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[InCali]

I think Doctor Strange is going to be awesome. Love Benedict Cumberbatch, love his costume. I'm super excited for that film.

yup....one of my all time favorite marvel characters. I'm planning on adding pics of my old Strange Tales comics on my website.

 

[InCali]

I think it will do avenger numbers maybe slightly better

If it does I will personally tell you the truth....I am dumber than a bag of hammers and my predictions suck.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I recently realized the Doctor Strange is now my most anticipated CBM of this year, and don't even know when that happened. Probably around the time they cast Chiwetel Ejiofor and Queen Tilda.

A flop is a movie that doesn't make money for the studio, it's a movie that loses money. Fantastic Four, Tomorrowland and Pan are flops. People throw out that word without knowing what it means.

BvS has cost a lot. It might need a billion to make it into the black.

 

[spiderman2]

BvS has cost a lot. It might need a billion to make it into the black.

Yeah I think I heard it is costing like 350m to make plus marketing or something crazy.

 

[Leenie]

Next weekend is another holiday weekend in the States.

I expect Star Wars to dominate some more (especially since all crap comes out in January for the most part).

 

[Angel0fDeath]

BvS has cost a lot. It might need a billion to make it into the black.

How much ?

 

[Supernova]

I thought it was around $200 mil for the film and another $100 mil in marketing etc.? BVS Im talking

 

[Erzengel]

No movie or property deserves to make X amount, sight unseen.

Normally I agree but there are certain exceptions.

If Star Wars made under 1B in 2015/2016, there's something wrong.

If Avengers made under 1B, there's something wrong.

BvS with MOS doing 700m and the last 2 Batman movies making over 1B, anything less than that for a marquee entry in their franchise, the expectations are high. And honestly, I read that so far this movie is over 400 million but that was Latino Review.

There are just certain movies that you expect to do well financially and if it doesn't, it'll probably be something to do with quality.

As much as I think TWS or GOTG is much better than AOU, I understand why AOU made more.

 

[jokesonm3]

Hey everyone! How you guys doi.....

Oh wait, whats this?

My bad, i thought i was in the BvS thread, seeing as there's a ton a BvS talk happening here.









And just to get things kinda back on track, SW7 is opening in China in two days, expect a major increase in its total box office, i expect it to do at least half a billion in China.

 

[Erzengel]

Conservative estimates right now are 175-200 in China. Presales so far have been lukewarm.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

I thought it was around $200 mil for the film and another $100 mil in marketing etc.? BVS Im talking

There's been unconfirmed reports that total budget is around $400 mil.

 

[InCali]

Conservative estimates right now are 175-200 in China. Presales so far have been lukewarm.

Y'know, this business of box office predictions, while fun, is almost impossible to do with any level of accuracy; especially early on.

If someone had said back in 1977 "Hey, you know that new Star Wars movie that just got released? Well, it's going to make over 460M at the box office.", s/he probably would have been put in a nuthouse.

The only thing that is certain is that we are uncertain of what it's going to do in China.

 

[InCali]

There's been unconfirmed reports that total budget is around $400 mil.

Man....that is a LOT of dough. Mind boggling really.

 

[Erzengel]

Y'know, this business of box office predictions, while fun, is almost impossible to do with any level of accuracy; especially early on.

If someone had said back in 1977 "Hey, you know that new Star Wars movie that just got released? Well, it's going to make over 460M at the box office.", s/he probably would have been put in a nuthouse.

The only thing that is certain is that we are uncertain of what it's going to do in China.

It is but it's not a total stab in the dark. Pre sales in the US were off the chart so it's no surprise that it's breaking records.

On the other side, can TFA still break records in China. Yes. However, as of right now it doesn't appear to be the same amount of buzz.

 

[InCali]

It is but it's not a total stab in the dark. Pre sales in the US were off the chart so it's no surprise that it's breaking records.

On the other side, can TFA still break records in China. Yes. However, as of right now it doesn't appear to be the same amount of buzz.

Yes. Pre-Sales were nuts. I had to buy a ticket "I can't remember how long in advance" just in order to get a good seat (and I barely got one), but, like a BILLION dollars DOM?!?!? I know some people were saying that, but some people were (well one person anyway ) saying under a billion WW. Predictions are all over the map so some of them HAVE to be right.

Anyway, if I had to bet on my predictions, I'd be so far in debt that I'd have to work until I died.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

Man....that is a LOT of dough. Mind boggling really.

I'm sure Disney spent something similar for Star Wars, if not more. Hell, the LA premier alone had to cost a pretty penny.

It's norm now for these tent pole films. They seem to spend as much to market them as it cost to make them.

 

[InCali]

I'm sure Disney spent something similar for Star Wars, if not more. Hell, the LA premier alone had to cost a pretty penny.

It's norm now for these tent pole films. They seem to spend as much to market them as it cost to make them.

I think Disney GOT a lot of money from Subway, Dodge, etc. Literally every time I turned on the TV, there was some SW commercial from cars to whatever or someone was doing a SW related skit or whatever. I think it was Old Guy who said Disney got way in excess of 100M in commercials for 22M or something like that. AND, if you're Disney, you just pay yourself when you buy a bunch of the commercials anyway. Throw in all of the in-house work they do and I wonder what TFA really cost to make. I think they've got a big advantage over other studios.

 

[DChero]

Even though I'm more of a DC fanboy, I'm fine with BvS not hitting TFA numbers. If BvS is as good as I hope, that would mean Justice League: Part One would have the best chance of breaking the $2b+ mark. Two of the three main characters seem to have to compete against prior versions of themselves to a large portion of the audience, which is why (I believe) we have so many people freaking out over casting choices. It is what it is.

I'm psyched to see Star Wars back and at the top of the genre again. I hope that it continues to build off of TFA success because it's kind of the common denominator among most sci-fi/fantasy/superhero fans.

 

[Filmfan93]

Yeah, Star Wars is back and has proven how huge the franchise is. It is amazing how the movie is breaking all kinds of records for a December release. I really hope it ends with $2,3 billion + . I am glad that TFA was a success and I am glad I was part of the hype surrounding it. Haven't been so excited for a movie since Avengers (2012) and SW:Ep.3 back in 2005. After 4 viewings at the cinema, I am still excited to see TFA for a 5th time tomorrow! This movie really is something special.

 

[PacificBoy]

It is but it's not a total stab in the dark. Pre sales in the US were off the chart so it's no surprise that it's breaking records.

On the other side, can TFA still break records in China. Yes. However, as of right now it doesn't appear to be the same amount of buzz.

Such is the nature of online ticket booking is that it can turn on a dime on the last day, but as of now, the only definite thing you can make of the presales is that the original buzz reported in the western press was massively overstated. A combination of overestimation and a misreading of the social media chatter IMO (a Reuters article said the social media interest in TFA was twice that of FF7).

As of this time, the opening day online ticket value from maoyan is 26.319m yuan.

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/78536?_v_=yes

I think a hopeful comparison would be Jurassic World's performance where it started with a modest OD and had crazy big multipliers thanks to great WOM.

JW had an opening day online ticket value of 101.129m yuan.

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/78602?_v_=yes

Which translated into a $16.38m OD for June 2015 according to The Hollywood Reporter.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-box-office-jurassic-world-801786

 

[InCali]

Even though I'm more of a DC fanboy, I'm fine with BvS not hitting TFA numbers. If BvS is as good as I hope, that would mean Justice League: Part One would have the best chance of breaking the $2b+ mark. Two of the three main characters seem to have to compete against prior versions of themselves to a large portion of the audience, which is why (I believe) we have so many people freaking out over casting choices. It is what it is.

I'm psyched to see Star Wars back and at the top of the genre again. I hope that it continues to build off of TFA success because it's kind of the common denominator among most sci-fi/fantasy/superhero fans.

I think, if handled right, that JL can put up very big numbers. Maybe not 2B numbers, but certainly Avengers/JW numbers. I also think you're right when you say that BvS is a key movie for DC. I hope the upcoming stand alones are good too. We don't need another Green Lantern like the last one (although I kind of liked it even though I recognized it wasn't what I would call a GOOD movie).

I think IW, if good, could "maybe" put up 2B, but that's a LOT of tickets. The only reason I think Avengers will probably do a little better than JL is that it's probably a little better known than JL (EDIT: I'm talking general public). It's had a chance to develop its brand. If JL is really, really good, all bets are off. Sky's the limit.

Neither is really in the SW stratosphere. I think it'll come back to earth a little bit in Ep 8 and 9. TFA went crazy because we were all dying for a good SW movie (and, IMO, we got one).

 

[Erzengel]

Jurassic World, TFA and BvsS are great barometer movies for their respective franchises.

If TFA made less than $1B even with the 95% RT that would mean that the interest of Star Wars has gone down.

I've said before that I don't think BvS needs a high RT score to do well but it will certainly help.

 

[InCali]

Jurassic World, TFA and BvsS are great barometer movies for their respective franchises.

If TFA made less than $1B even with the 95% RT that would mean that the interest of Star Wars has gone down.

I've said before that I don't think BvS needs a high RT score to do well but it will certainly help.

It will also be interesting to see how Fantastic Beasts does. I wouldn't mind a HP 8 on screen. Love to see a young(er) Dumbledore.

(You'd probably have a difficult time arguing that interest in SW has waned substantially....)

 

[PacificBoy]

The 2-billion club is a rarefied one even though international markets have grown. It'd still take a zeitgeist-capturing movie like TFA. Plus the strength (and further strengthening it seems) of the dollar versus the other currencies means that for it'd be tougher for the rest of the box office contenders this year.

 

[InCali]

The 2-billion club is a rarefied one even though international markets have grown. It'd still take a zeitgeist-capturing movie like TFA. Plus the strength (and further strengthening it seems) of the dollar versus the other currencies means that for it'd be tougher for the rest of the box office contenders this year.

That's a good point. I've always felt if there should be an "adjusted" box office number, it should be for corrections between international markets and within a reasonable time frame and not GwtW v Titanic v SW adjusted comparisons. It doesn't get you everything, but as long as you don't go too far out in time, it gets you some info on how the movies did.