The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]508119[/split]

 

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]507789[/split]

 

[DarthSkywalker]

A new thread for China.

 

[PacificBoy]

If it's tracking TG numbers then it isn't so bad, as compared to the outlook the last few days.

 

[jokesonm3]

A new thread for China.

 

[Tymminator]

Crossing fingers that WOM is excellent.....

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Looks like about $6 million domestic Thursday. TFA estimated at $770.4 million going into the weekend.

http://deadline.com/2016/01/the-revenant-star-wars-the-force-awakens-weekend-box-office-1201678383/

 

[InCali]

Looks like about $6 million domestic Thursday. TFA estimated at $770.4 million going into the weekend.

http://deadline.com/2016/01/the-revenant-star-wars-the-force-awakens-weekend-box-office-1201678383/

More than I thought it would be. This weekend will be interesting (don't we EVER get tired of saying that??? t: ).

Eerily close to Avatar #s for the same time period. TFA had a better Tuesday hold and Avatar had a better Wednesday hold. Otherwise everything looks just about identical. Around 200K difference.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yup. TFA hanging in there so far.

Latest @BoxOffice overseas update is $821.3 million for a global total of $1.5917 billion. Not sure if that includes anything from China yet but I would bet not.

China watchers on the BOT boards say sales are shooting through the roof and it's looking like a $35-40 million OD. Maybe more. Go China go!

 

[Golgo-13]

I wonder who does the voice overs for the cantonese version release, or is it entirely subtitled?

 

[InCali]

Yup. TFA hanging in there so far.

Latest @BoxOffice overseas update is $821.3 million for a global total of $1.5917 billion. Not sure if that includes anything from China yet but I would bet not.

China watchers on the BOT boards say sales are shooting through the roof and it's looking like a $35-40 million OD. Maybe more. Go China go!

What do other BBs do there FF7 for example?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

TG 26, AoU 34, FF7 64. Not always predictive tho, depends on word of mouth. JW only had $18 million OD but ended up about even with AoU in total.

 

[InCali]

TG 26, AoU 34, FF7 64. Not always predictive tho, depends on word of mouth. JW only had $18 million OD but ended up about even with AoU in total.

Thanks. The way I see it is that the problem was going to be getting people to the theater 1st day and not WOM. That sounds like a very, very solid OD. I believe WOM will be just fine and we're headed for some big, big numbers. 64M OD!!! Wow, they love their FF7, fast cars, and location shoots!!

 

[InCali]

Just looking at the numbers, I believe TFA will easily break 2B without China. I can easily see it getting another 200M DOM and the OS numbers are, and will remain, slightly higher. We'll see in the coming weeks.

Over a 3x multiplier after only 18 days is very, very good. That's a good FULL run for a movie.

 

[JOE]

What kind of numbers are you guys predicting for China?

 

[InCali]

What kind of numbers are you guys predicting for China?

I don't know enough to predict China's BO. There are a couple of folks who have posted recently that know more than I do. From what I can glean, I'd say easily in excess of 200M if it really comes in OD at 35-40M. That's Avengers:AoU territory (which I believe made 200M) and, while I really liked AoU, I think TFA has a much broader appeal.

Others??

 

[Vincanws]

It'll make approximately $247M in China

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Thinking at the moment seems to be $200-250 million. Just have to see where it goes Sunday and Monday to get an idea about legs.

 

[PacificBoy]

Oh, quite the bump in presales the last few hours.

 

[sueb1863]

How about somebody here just wins the $800 million Powerball lottery and then just spends it getting TFA past Avatar WW?

 

[rashad]

what kind of numbers are you guys predicting for china?

200m

 

[InCali]

How about somebody here just wins the $800 million Powerball lottery and then just spends it getting TFA past Avatar WW?

Never played the lotto or whatever you call it because it's a fool's game, but when the $#!t goes to 700M or whatever and the odds are about 290M to 1, I'm throwin' down 50 bucks or so.

It ain't gonna change my life one way or another unless the 290M/50 to 1 happens. So my advice to you is to get a good night sleep.

Peace and Love and all that $#!t.

InCali Out

 

[Mysteryman]

So if I win the lottery, how do i use that money to help TFA?
Spend 300 million on TFA tickets a and keep 400 million for myself?
Bear in mind TFA may be out of the theatre by the time that I get the money.

 

[spiderman2]

Just looking at the numbers, I believe TFA will easily break 2B without China. I can easily see it getting another 200M DOM and the OS numbers are, and will remain, slightly higher. We'll see in the coming weeks.

Over a 3x multiplier after only 18 days is very, very good. That's a good FULL run for a movie.

Yeah it sounds like if you where to not include china that the movie would most likely make around 1 to 1.1 billion USA and around the same out side for 2-2.2 billion.

What kind of numbers are you guys predicting for China?

I am going to say 500m but because I think that is about the only way the movie is going to end up making more WW then avatar.

 

[spiderman2]

So if I win the lottery, how do i use that money to help TFA?
Spend 300 million on TFA tickets a and keep 400 million for myself?
Bear in mind TFA may be out of the theatre by the time that I get the money.

lol yeah spend like half on TFA tickets and keep the another half.