The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread

[hippie_hunter]

Poor 20th century Fox, not only are they getting a kick in the crotch by seeing their former franchise do so well, but putting up Alvin and the Chipmunks the same weekend, along with the Blu-ray release of the terrible Fantastic Four movie the same week! Just a horrible year for them.

In 20th Century Fox's defense, asides from Disney and Universal, all of the studios have had a lackluster year. At least Fox had a couple of decent hits. I would say that out of all of the lackluster studios this year, Fox has had the least lackluster.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Here's a records update from BOM.

As for the records the film has broken so far, here's an idea:

Largest Thursday Previews: $57 million*
Previous Record: $43.5 million (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
Largest Friday, Opening Day, Single Day: $120.5 million (estimated)
Previous Record: $91 million (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
December Single Day: $120.5 million (estimated)
Previous Record: $37.13 million (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
Widest December Opening: 4,134 theaters
Previous Record: 4,045 theaters (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
December Opening Weekend: $120.5 million... and counting
Previous Record: $84.62 million (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
Fastest to $100 Million: 1 Day
Previous Record: 2 Days (Jurassic World)

* The Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 record included midnight only screenings while Force Awakens screenings began at 7 PM on Thursday and included Star Wars marathon ticket sales, tickets that were sold for as much as $59.99 each.

Records still up for grabs this weekend include (but are not limited to):

Largest Saturday: $69.6 million (Jurassic World)
Largest Sunday: $57.2 million (Jurassic World)
Domestic Opening Weekend: $208.8 million (Jurassic World)
International Opening Weekend: $316.1 million (Jurassic World)
Global Opening Weekend: $524.9 million (Jurassic World)
Highest Per Theater Average (Wide Opening): $48,855 / 4,274 theaters (Jurassic World)
Top Opening Weekend for PG-13 Rated Film: $208.8 million (Jurassic World)
Top Holiday Opening Weekend**: $158 million (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)
#1 Movie Weekend Market Share: 84.5% of Top 12 (Avengers: Age of Ultron)
Biggest Weekend Overall (Top 12 Gross): $266 million (June 12-14, 2015)
Biggest December Weekend (Top 12 Gross): $259.9 million (Dec 25-27, 2009)

** Holiday is defined as the first Friday in November through New Year's week or weekend.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4133&p=.htm

 

[Sithborg]

Poor 20th century Fox, not only are they getting a kick in the crotch by seeing their former franchise do so well, but putting up Alvin and the Chipmunks the same weekend, along with the Blu-ray release of the terrible Fantastic Four movie the same week! Just a horrible year for them.

Star Wars was as much Fox's as Iron Man was Universal's. Even less so, because Lucas didn't need funding from the distributor.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Star Wars is mainly popular in US only, to say that it has a global appeal is incorrect, it has same as popularity as Terminator / Alien franchise in overseas markets.

That is, limited appeal in overseas markets I'm saying this as someone who does not live in US.

Now it may reach 1 billion to 1.3 billion, thanks to Disney's marketing machine and "built-in audience" in US, but I think it will fall short of the first Avengers movie collections.

Edit: Those 2.2 bil. estimates are really "wild estimates" does anyone really believe that ?

No, that estimate was from Business Insider

I have already said that it will make anything between 1 billion to 1.2 billion, JJ Abrams is no Nolan though and it will proven in the quality of storytelling.

Couldn't be more wrong if he tried. So, does this person still post on the Hype? t:

 

[Sithborg]

I think when he was talking about overseas, he meant China. Clearly, Star Wars is HUGE in Europe.

 

[Mysteryman]

Watch TFA EXPLODE in China.

 

[Tilapia]

OW: 250
Domestic: 900-1 billion?
International: 1.5-1.7 billion

WW: 2.5 billion

Some rough estimates, not too bad. I am still skeptical about Asia. Total wild card. If it exceeds Avatar, that would be pretty cool, but I think it will fall short.

 

[PacificBoy]

Watch TFA EXPLODE in China.

As a Chinese, I'd love for that to happen. As mentioned before, I'm curious about the reception of TFA in the far east, namely China and South Korea.

 

[JaD]

Couldn't be more wrong if he tried. So, does this person still post on the Hype? t:

I don't know, but I saw a news article this morning of someone who was crushed by a pile of false predictions on their way to breakfast. Could be someone else but I hope they'll be alright

 

[Rocketman]

This'll break every record when it opens in China.

Bye bye, Cameron.

 

[Rocketman]

Watch this make a billion domestically, hahaha.

 

[Horhey]

This'll break every record when it opens in China.

Bye bye, Cameron.

With all due respect, of course.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

China is a tricky place to predict. I mean Furious 7 made more than Jurassic World and Age of Ultron. It's going to make a lot of cash and I wouldn't be surprised if it broke records but I'm taking a wait and see attitude about it for now.

 

[Octoberist]

The Chinese likes cars...and they like science fiction and fantasy. If China was a person, it would be these overgrown fat teen with acne.

 

[PacificBoy]

Accurate.

Also, Paul Walker's passing struck a surprising chord with us, and the fast franchise had developed a following here.

What would stand in the way of TFA's absolute domination at the Chinese BO is the lack of familiarity and nostalgia with SW and the other Lunar New Year movies competing with TFA in January.

I think what would swing it in TFA's favour is BB-8. The far east collectively are a sucker for cute things.

 

[Horhey]

China is a tricky place to predict. I mean Furious 7 made more than Jurassic World and Age of Ultron. It's going to make a lot of cash and I wouldn't be surprised if it broke records but I'm taking a wait and see attitude about it for now.

Its dangerous to breathe there right now. Wtf? Geez...

Any climate change deniers here?

 

[InCali]

Disney will have made back all of the money they spent to acquire Lucasfilm with the box office, merchandising, video games etc in this one year alone. Holy ****

Don't forget the frelling $16 aluminum popcorn container I bought. I swear, EVERY single person walking out of the theater had some sort of overpriced commemorative something or other. That thing probably cost about $.50 to make. Prolly had R2D2 mass producing it day and night. I wonder what Disney's cut of the $15.50 is......

I'm glad I was there because my wife wanted to buy all 5 of them.

The way I figure it, I got a wine bucket out of the deal. I hope it doesn't leak. If it does, I have some sealer that'll make it work.

Loved the movie. It was made the way SW is supposed to be made. Don't know how Lucas got so off track. The 5:15AM line was down to the end of the block and was probably 75-80% full (the theater seats almost 1,000). The rest of the shows today are sold out. There was a lot of walk up business for the early show I attended. I don't think there is going to be a huge Saturday fall off like some are saying.

 

[jmc]

Christ, it's Sunday where I am and every session today at my local theatre is about 80% sold out.

 

[Horhey]

'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' blasts box office records

Stormtroopers and R2-D2 visit the White House for 'Star Wars' screening

^^
No comment.

 

[InCali]

Christ, it's Sunday where I am and every session today at my local theatre is about 80% sold out.

Every Saturday show (1000 seat IMAX) is sold out. There are a few seats in the first 2 rows at the front of a 100 foot screen until 2AM. For the 2AM and 5:15AM shows on Sunday morning, you can get tickets, but the good seats are gone. Ditto on Sunday. With the WoM, I think the walkup business will do well.

Maybe the NFL game ratings are going to drop tomorrow......

SW>NFL How's that one Murica?

 

[Drizzle]

SW>NFL How's that one Murica?

Star Wars is American.

 

[InCali]

Star Wars is American.

It was more of a question of the popularity of SW and the NFL in America.

 

[False Prophet]

Yeah, I was wrong. This thing is probably going to hit 270M this weekend. That's super impressive.

 

[Octoberist]

Its dangerous to breathe there right now. Wtf? Geez...

Any climate change deniers here?

India and China need to take more care of their smog problem. That's just disgusting.

 

[Iceman]

Yep my showing was totally packed. The whole cinema was really busy, even the lobby and outside.