The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread

[InCali]

Yeah, I was wrong. This thing is probably going to hit 270M this weekend. That's super impressive.

I'm thinking in the range of 250+. If it just follows JW's gross receipts on Saturday and Sunday, it'll be a shade under that. I know people are saying it's front loaded and, to an extent, it is, but I think the pundits are overestimating that aspect. Just from being at the theater on a Saturday EARLY morning show, I get the feeling that this thing is still going great guns (or blasters if you will). 270M just seems nuts to me and even though I recognize it could happen, there's this little voice in my head that says "Dude, I know it's going crazy, but that's just way out there". I hope that voice is as full of $#!t as I am.

EDIT: What's more interesting to me is what happens next week. Is it POSSIBLE that it could get near 400M in 7 days of release? It would take about a 40% drop of the true F-Su average (say 190M+) over 4 days (M-Th) or an average of about 37.5M per day. JW was WAY less than that, but this just feels bigger and anything above 250M would shrink those numbers.

What I tend to do is think outlandishly and set the bar higher and higher; just hoping for the miraculous. What I think can happen is to cross 400M next Friday (remember Thursday is a holiday for a lot of people). Can it push 500M by the end of next weekend?

I've got my head in the clouds. Where's Lando when you need him?

 

[Rocketman]

Changing my prediction:

$300 million opening weekend
$900 million domestic
$3 billion worldwide

 

[Bruce Malone]

Changing my prediction:

$300 million opening weekend
$900 million domestic
$3 billion worldwide

I think that's way over estimating.

250 million hasn't even been technically locked yet for this weekend let alone 300.

Also I'm still not sold of the legs for this. It's not going to drop or anything but I'm not convinced it's going to approach anywhere near the legs Avatar had and that goes even more for internationally.

I don't think SW has the international reach to gross 2 billion in just overseas receipts like Avatar did.

 

[LizardMan07]

I think that's way over estimating.

250 million hasn't even been technically locked yet for this weekend let alone 300.

Also I'm still not sold of the legs for this. It's not going to drop or anything but I'm not convinced it's going to approach anywhere near the legs Avatar had and that goes even more for internationally.

I don't think SW has the international reach to gross 2 billion in just overseas receipts like Avatar did.

It doesn't need the legs Avatar had, it just needs to not drop off heavily for 3 weeks.

 

[InCali]

I think that's way over estimating.

250 million hasn't even been technically locked yet for this weekend let alone 300.

Also I'm still not sold of the legs for this. It's not going to drop or anything but I'm not convinced it's going to approach anywhere near the legs Avatar had and that goes even more for internationally.

I don't think SW has the international reach to gross 2 billion in just overseas receipts like Avatar did.

When you more than triple the OW of a movie like SW did over Avatar, it would be virtually impossible to have the sorts of drops Avatar did. I don't think anyone is thinking along those lines. You will definitely see the difference in gross box office receipts between the 2 movies shrink. The question is whether or not SW will drop below Avatar in gross receipts on a week by week basis. It probably will, but it has such a head start that it might be able to outstrip Avatar's totals. We could see a 60M+ third week for SW because there's nothing on the horizon that is particularly compelling (to a majority of people anyway).

 

[Bruce Malone]

SW is going to have a big head start over Avatar don't get me wrong as Avatar's OW was not amazing comparatively, so it won't need to match up exactly with the legs but both Jurassic World and Avengers 1 had major head starts as well and still came up about a 100 million short domestically.

If SW does open up to 250 million + with legs at least better than JW then yeah I can see it taking the domestic crown.

I still don't see SW equaling the 2 billion Avatar made internationally alone. The WW crown is still out of reach in my view at least at this point.

 

[Mysteryman]

Weekend only.
Minimum:230 million.
Maximum:255 million.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Unfortunately I think the range is closer to 225-240 m OW.

 

[I Am The Knight]

I think that's way over estimating.

No, it's Rocketman.

 

[Lily Adler]

And he's burning up his fuse out here alone.

 

[Vincanws]

238M DOM. Boom. Calling it. Pow..

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

As for the records the film has broken so far, here's an idea:

Largest Thursday Previews: $57 million*
Previous Record: $43.5 million (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
Largest Friday, Opening Day, Single Day: $120.5 million (estimated)
Previous Record: $91 million (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
December Single Day: $120.5 million (estimated)
Previous Record: $37.13 million (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
Widest December Opening: 4,134 theaters
Previous Record: 4,045 theaters (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
December Opening Weekend: $120.5 million... and counting
Previous Record: $84.62 million (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
Fastest to $100 Million: 1 Day
Previous Record: 2 Days (Jurassic World)

Records still up for grabs this weekend include (but are not limited to):
Largest Saturday: $69.6 million (Jurassic World)
Largest Sunday: $57.2 million (Jurassic World)
Domestic Opening Weekend: $208.8 million (Jurassic World)
International Opening Weekend: $316.1 million (Jurassic World)
Global Opening Weekend: $524.9 million (Jurassic World)
Highest Per Theater Average (Wide Opening): $48,855 / 4,274 theaters (Jurassic World)
Top Opening Weekend for PG-13 Rated Film: $208.8 million (Jurassic World)
Top Holiday Opening Weekend**: $158 million (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)
#1 Movie Weekend Market Share: 84.5% of Top 12 (Avengers: Age of Ultron)
Biggest Weekend Overall (Top 12 Gross): $266 million (June 12-14, 2015)
Biggest December Weekend (Top 12 Gross): $259.9 million (Dec 25-27, 2009)

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4133&p=.htm

 

[InCali]

As for the records the film has broken so far, here's an idea:

Largest Thursday Previews: $57 million*
Previous Record: $43.5 million (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
Largest Friday, Opening Day, Single Day: $120.5 million (estimated)
Previous Record: $91 million (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
December Single Day: $120.5 million (estimated)
Previous Record: $37.13 million (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
Widest December Opening: 4,134 theaters
Previous Record: 4,045 theaters (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
December Opening Weekend: $120.5 million... and counting
Previous Record: $84.62 million (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
Fastest to $100 Million: 1 Day
Previous Record: 2 Days (Jurassic World)

Records still up for grabs this weekend include (but are not limited to):
Largest Saturday: $69.6 million (Jurassic World)
Largest Sunday: $57.2 million (Jurassic World)
Domestic Opening Weekend: $208.8 million (Jurassic World)
International Opening Weekend: $316.1 million (Jurassic World)
Global Opening Weekend: $524.9 million (Jurassic World)
Highest Per Theater Average (Wide Opening): $48,855 / 4,274 theaters (Jurassic World)
Top Opening Weekend for PG-13 Rated Film: $208.8 million (Jurassic World)
Top Holiday Opening Weekend**: $158 million (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)
#1 Movie Weekend Market Share: 84.5% of Top 12 (Avengers: Age of Ultron)
Biggest Weekend Overall (Top 12 Gross): $266 million (June 12-14, 2015)
Biggest December Weekend (Top 12 Gross): $259.9 million (Dec 25-27, 2009)

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4133&p=.htm

Hard to believe that the Global and Int'l are even in play without China in the mix.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's not doing 300 mil opening weekend because like all big openers it is front loaded. But it will easily take the opening weekend record. I'm thinking 240-250ishmil.

 

[Marvolo]

Calling it a force doesn't even begin to describe the new "Star Wars" movie.

"Star Wars: The Force Awakens" is completely destroying box office records. The movie took in $57 million from Thursday night previews. That, added in to Friday, gives it an opening day of more than $100 million. Disney's estimates put "The Force Awakens" earnings closer to $125 million. The totals mean "Star Wars" has the first triple-digit million single day for a movie ever and blows away the $91.1 million opening day record for the final "Harry Potter" movie.
Not too bad, but it's only the beginning.

The film is predicted to move light-years past the "Jurassic World" opening weekend record of more than $208 million, possibly surpassing $250 million, according to experts.

If the movie does cross the $250 million mark in its three-day opener, it'll get there two days sooner than "Jurassic World," the fastest movie to reach that milestone.

"Avatar," the highest grossing domestic movie ever, reportedly took 12 days to get past $250 million. However, "Star Wars" has a huge advantage with the amount of theaters showing 3D now. For "Avatar," there were about 3,100 RealD screens in the U.S. and Canada, Deadline reported. Now there are around 14,000. With that, "Star Wars" is set up to make a good try for highest grossing film ever.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/star...-office-opening-ever_56757404e4b06fa6887d9393

 

[Shifty]

Disney will have made back all of the money they spent to acquire Lucasfilm with the box office, merchandising, video games etc in this one year alone. Holy ****

Lucasfilm doesn't get the full $2 billion. Roughly half the North American grosses go to the theatres and its different in international markets on how much studios get to keep. Foreign countries aren't a big fan of sending millions out of their country. Plus the huge marketing budget for the film and $200 M production cost.

The lights will stay on at Lucasfilm and they still swindled George Lucas at $4 billion but they'll need to make a couple more films before they've paid off the purchase price.

 

[Marvolo]

Lucasfilm doesn't get the full $2 billion. Roughly half the North American grosses go to the theatres and its different in international markets on how much studios get to keep. Foreign countries aren't a big fan of sending millions out of their country. Plus the huge marketing budget for the film and $200 M production cost.

The lights will stay on at Lucasfilm and they still swindled George Lucas at $4 billion but they'll need to make a couple more films before they've paid off the purchase price.

Nah merchandising and box office and blu-ray, digital, and dvd sales will cover it before Episode 8 even hits theaters.

Star Wars" is on track to generate $3 billion to $5 billion in merchandise sales in 2015 alone.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-star-wars-toys-20151219-story.html

And keep in mind that star wars merchandise and licensin was still profiting Lucas hundreds of millions per year in 2012. So disney has already pulled in over $1 billion in merchandise and licemsing sales between 2012 and 2015. Plus the $3 billion to $5 billion theyll make on merchandise this year. Plus TFA profits. Analysts said back in 2012 that Disney started making a profit almost immediately. By now the deal is paid off.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Lucasfilm doesn't get the full $2 billion. Roughly half the North American grosses go to the theatres and its different in international markets on how much studios get to keep. Foreign countries aren't a big fan of sending millions out of their country. Plus the huge marketing budget for the film and $200 M production cost.

The lights will stay on at Lucasfilm and they still swindled George Lucas at $4 billion but they'll need to make a couple more films before they've paid off the purchase price.

They are making over $2bil in the last four months of this year in terms of merch. Those sales aren't going to simply disppear in the new year. This movie made their money back.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

9TH UPDATE, Saturday 6:33PM: Disney as well as other sources are reporting that Star Wars: The Force Awakens is currently coming in on the conservative side of projections with a $220M weekend opening, which would still be an all-time record beating Jurassic World‘s $208.8M. Peg that to softer Saturday matinees, however, evening shows could swing these figures higher. Per Disney, Saturday’s day grosses vs. Friday’s day ticket receipts are trailing by 5% for $47M, for a projected $60M Saturday (that’s a 50% decline from yesterday’s opening day record of $120M). Anecdotally, we stopped by The Cinemark XD in Crenshaw at 4PM and there were still plenty of showtimes that weren’t sold out. Another exhibition chain told us earlier today that the flyover states were doing gangbuster business.

Yeah, we have to wait for tonight, but softer Sat and Sun makes sense. Just couldn't keep up that pace, but the chance at the record is still alive and well.

 

[Tilapia]

Was it Deadline that quoted someone saying, "Someone is losing their job. Not at Disney, but someone in the rest of Hollywood for letting Disney buy both the MCU and Lucas Film". I just can't fathom why Fox let it slip right under their nose. I get that Fox never had a great relationship with Lucas, but that would have potentially healed some old wounds. Universal basically had their moment of glory, but there will literally be no movie or TV industry a fraction as profitable as as the Disney conglomerates for another 10-15 years. Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar.... unbelievable. Next up, Disney merges with the NFL with NFL Sundays going to ESPN... then they'll finally have the missing link in their male market share demographic.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Was it Deadline that quoted someone saying, "Someone is losing their job. Not at Disney, but someone in the rest of Hollywood for letting Disney buy both the MCU and Lucas Film". I just can't fathom why Fox let it slip right under their nose. I get that Fox never had a great relationship with Lucas, but that would have potentially healed some old wounds. Universal basically had their moment of glory, but there will literally be no movie or TV industry a fraction as profitable as as the Disney conglomerates for another 10-15 years. Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar.... unbelievable. Next up, Disney merges with the NFL with NFL Sundays going to ESPN... then they'll finally have the missing link in their male market share demographic.

Bob Iger, that guy is the best in the business.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Was it Deadline that quoted someone saying, "Someone is losing their job. Not at Disney, but someone in the rest of Hollywood for letting Disney buy both the MCU and Lucas Film". I just can't fathom why Fox let it slip right under their nose. I get that Fox never had a great relationship with Lucas, but that would have potentially healed some old wounds. Universal basically had their moment of glory, but there will literally be no movie or TV industry a fraction as profitable as as the Disney conglomerates for another 10-15 years. Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar.... unbelievable. Next up, Disney merges with the NFL with NFL Sundays going to ESPN... then they'll finally have the missing link in their male market share demographic.

Fox would have never got Star Wars. They wouldn't have been willing to treat LF as its own division.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Well, half of the 4 billion Lucas got came in the form of Disney stock. If you're Lucas, would you want 2 billion worth of stocks in Disney or WB/Fox/Universal? Disney was the only game in town as far as this deal was concerned.

 

[Tilapia]

Well, half of the 4 billion Lucas got came in the form of Disney stock. If you're Lucas, would you want 2 billion worth of stocks in Disney or WB/Fox/Universal? Disney was the only game in town as far as this deal was concerned.

Was not aware, the quadruple chin, living Jaba still has some business acumen himself.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Well, half of the 4 billion Lucas got came in the form of Disney stock. If you're Lucas, would you want 2 billion worth of stocks in Disney or WB/Fox/Universal? Disney was the only game in town as far as this deal was concerned.

That is such a boss move.