The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread

[MurkeNyou]

The odds of you falling victim to such a tragedy are incredibly small.

Agreed. Don't guy into the paranoia propaganda machine. You are as likely to die from a Terrorist Attack in some anonymous theater as you are choking on popcorn and dying in the same theater.

Don't give in to fear.

 

[Jedi-Spirit]

No, the ticket sales will not be 95% accounted for by that point. Potter 8 had $50m in pre-sales and a $169m opening. That's the biggest percentage of pre-sales ever at roughly 30%. One other thing to remember is not every pre-sale ticket is for opening weekend. Some of them are for the 2nd weekend or other days after opening weekend.

Times have changed, more people buy tix in advance online, for a movie like this, if you don't, you won't be seeing it the first couple of days...so it's pre- sales just days before release will give the best barometer we've seen up to now on it's opening weekend numbers...

 

[Greens]

'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' Tracking Suggests Film Could Make $2.7 Billion Profit, Analyst Says

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/star-wars-force-awakens-profit-844758

 

[InCali]

'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' Tracking Suggests Film Could Make $2.7 Billion Profit, Analyst Says

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/star-wars-force-awakens-profit-844758

22 showings at my (large) local theater on Friday. 57 showings over the weekend. Of those, 17 are IMAX showings. There are no good seats left for any of the IMAX showings and all but the 2am and 5:15am shows are sold out or virtually sold out (there are a couple of front row seats on the side at a few showings). This theater holds almost 1,000 people. $20 a pop.....do the math....well over $300K for the weekend for that IMAX theater alone.....

 

[Sithborg]

I have seen some speculate that this will be testing the limits of Imax capacity. Which reminds me, I need to get Thur night tickets.

 

[InCali]

I have seen some speculate that this will be testing the limits of Imax capacity. Which reminds me, I need to get Thur night tickets.

Good luck with that. Let me know how it works out for you. The only show at the TCL Chinese IMAX that isn't sold out on Thursday is the 5:15am showing and the only seats available for that showing are $#!t. A couple of side seats in the nosebleeds and some side seats down in the front along with front row seats about 35 feet away from a 95' screen.

I forgot to add in the receipts for Thursday.....4 more showings at about 20K a show. Over 400K for the weekend at that IMAX theater alone. I've never seen anything like it.

In one weekend, it's going to make more than the vast majority of movies make in their entire run.

 

[Sithborg]

I'm not even trying to see it in Imax in December.

Local theater still only has 2 7:00 shows, one sold out. Kind of waiting to see them add a third.

 

[InCali]

I'm not even trying to see it in Imax in December.

Local theater still only has 2 7:00 shows, one sold out. Kind of waiting to see them add a third.

If they do, you better jump on it fast. I got my IMAX ticket on or near the day they went on sale and the only seat available in the middle was in the 8th or 9th row for the 5:15am Friday showing. Since I like sitting up front, that worked out okay. Everything else was either sold out or the seats kind of sucked. It was frelling nuts.....

 

[Jedi-Spirit]

Where I live in the central mid-west, in a city of roughly 300,000, most tix at the top theaters in town have sold 85% of tix for showings Thursday night - Saturday night...only a very small number of seats are available for opening night at this point...

 

[samsnee]

I fully support that line of thinking. Definitely! But it's just not that black and white. I'm going with 9 other friends opening night and then my mom the next day. Do I really want to be thinking about something bad happening to them or myself the entire time in there? No, of course not. How will I ever enjoy the movie for what it is?! But heaven forbid, I don't want to have to survive only to see my friends or mom die....

I don't even want to talk about this anymore, this is just too dark and sad. I'm sorry everyone lol

I think most theater chains are aware of people's concerns. It's why they are saying no masks or anything that looks like a gun. Not saying it's 100% foolproof but most are heightened alert.

 

[Octoberist]

Good luck with that. Let me know how it works out for you. The only show at the TCL Chinese IMAX that isn't sold out on Thursday is the 5:15am showing and the only seats available for that showing are $#!t. A couple of side seats in the nosebleeds and some side seats down in the front along with front row seats about 35 feet away from a 95' screen.

I forgot to add in the receipts for Thursday.....4 more showings at about 20K a show. Over 400K for the weekend at that IMAX theater alone. I've never seen anything like it.

In one weekend, it's going to make more than the vast majority of movies make in their entire run.

Dude just get tickets for Saturday. I bought mine last week, and there were a good number of seats left for Saturday.

http://www.tclchinesetheatres.com/tickets-showtimes/?date=12/19/2015

 

[InCali]

Dude just get tickets for Saturday. I bought mine last week, and there were a good number of seats left for Saturday.

http://www.tclchinesetheatres.com/tickets-showtimes/?date=12/19/2015

Well, we're looking at the same site, but we must be seeing something different. There's no good seats left for the IMAX showings and the only showings that have any number of (kinda crummy) seats left are early morning showings.

I got my seat a long time ago when there were a (very) few good seats left (but only for early morning showings). My IMAX showing is at 5:15AM. The other IMAX shows are booked except a few seats around the fringes of the screen/theater.

EDIT: Oh, I think I see what you're saying. You are talking about non-IMAX showings. For me, not interested. If I'm gonna go see TFA, it's gonna be the full on blastfest with the huge screen and IMAX sound (the TCL has the new IMAX sound system with something like 6 added channels). Sound is a big deal to me and I'm rolling with IMAX.

 

[JOE]

I can't believe this movie is tracking this big... I knew it'd be huge, but this is ridiculous. I have goosebumps.

 

[InCali]

I can't believe this movie is tracking this big... I knew it'd be huge, but this is ridiculous. I have goosebumps.

Prediction......230-235 OW DOM.

Where did I get those numbers, you might ask? Well, I pulled them out of my....

Actually, think about it like this. JW opened to 208.8M with 4274 screens. With TFA opening at around 4500 screens, that would translate to just under 220M "IF" the average per theater was the same. Given all of the pre-sales (which might just be excitement and the walk up might be lower for TFA, but I don't think so) and hype, I think 10 to 15M more isn't out of the question.

What think?

EDIT: I can tell you for a fact, that the TCL Chinese theater (where I went to see JW for a 9:30-10am showing) wasn't NEARLY as full as the pre-sales for TFA. That's rather anecdotal, but do others have this sort of comparison to add?

 

[danoyse]

People are already waiting on line: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/09/movies/star-wars-the-force-awakens-fans-are-already-lining-up.html

 

[rashad]

These people must be unemployed or have alot of vacation time on their hands.

 

[Doctor Jones]

... did they not buy an online ticket? Are they even aware these things exist?

 

[danoyse]

There was a line like this for the prequels too. They actually use the time to raise money for charity while they wait.

 

[InCali]

... did they not buy an online ticket? Are they even aware these things exist?

Luddites.....extreme traditionalists......

If I even had time to do that, I'd be bored to the core. No AoS, no Haven, no Gotham and no doggies.....no, no, no.......

 

[InCali]

There was a line like this for the prequels too. They actually use the time to raise money for charity while they wait.

Yeah. I remember that. I just did the AIDS Walk in SF instead.

 

[jmc]

You can at least add my $21 to the total. Ticket finally purchased for the 12.25am session.

 

[InCali]

You can at least add my $21 to the total. Ticket finally purchased for the 12.25am session.

That's a pricey ticket. IMAX? 12:25am......were the other, sensible times sold out?

 

[Greens]

I'm pretty sure that's in AUS dollars, so 15 in US dollars.

 

[InCali]

I'm pretty sure that's in AUS dollars, so 15 in US dollars.

Oh yeah.....shoulda thoughta that. Still, not cheap for a midnight show. The local IMAX here is dinging people for 20 bones no matter what time you go. I guess they figure it'll sell out no matter what so why not charge evening prices for matinees and VST (Vampire Standard Time) showings?

 

[Octoberist]

Well, we're looking at the same site, but we must be seeing something different. There's no good seats left for the IMAX showings and the only showings that have any number of (kinda crummy) seats left are early morning showings.

I got my seat a long time ago when there were a (very) few good seats left (but only for early morning showings). My IMAX showing is at 5:15AM. The other IMAX shows are booked except a few seats around the fringes of the screen/theater.

EDIT: Oh, I think I see what you're saying. You are talking about non-IMAX showings. For me, not interested. If I'm gonna go see TFA, it's gonna be the full on blastfest with the huge screen and IMAX sound (the TCL has the new IMAX sound system with something like 6 added channels). Sound is a big deal to me and I'm rolling with IMAX.

I have to thank you because I didn't realize that I made a mistake.

When I bought my tickets for the Imax showing, I thought I got the seats up in the back. But no, it was for the front!

I called up the Chinese, and they were honest but diplomatic: They said due to the Imax screen, it'll be immersive. Maybe a little bit too immersive.

Luckily I was able to switch from Saturday to Sunday, with better seats!