The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread

[kickass]

3,900 screens? Is that official? Maybe they cut down on the number of theatres showing it because there will be so many showtimes around the clock and that makes up for the loss of locations? That would kinda push people to fill up the very early AM showtimes if their local theatre doesn't play it nearby.

I hope it opens to over 4,000 screens though. I don't see why Disney/Lucasfilm/BadRobot/etc....... wouldn't or couldn't dictate a much higher number of screens or locations when they're the biggest of the big lol.

 

[kickass]

Forbes.com posted 23 hours ago that The Force Awakens IS opening up to over 4,000 screens after all.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhug...ce-awakens-to-open-on-4000-screens-after-all/

They also state that the pre-sale tickets have made $60 Million. I don't know if that is an actual figure they are certain of, or if that's just a generalization from the over $54 Million it had made 4 weeks ago. Either way, good to hear!

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

2.2 billion when its all said and done.

 

[InCali]

Forbes.com posted 23 hours ago that The Force Awakens IS opening up to over 4,000 screens after all.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhug...ce-awakens-to-open-on-4000-screens-after-all/

They also state that the pre-sale tickets have made $60 Million. I don't know if that is an actual figure they are certain of, or if that's just a generalization from the over $54 Million it had made 4 weeks ago. Either way, good to hear!

I wonder if that Alex Jones guy I read about recently on the Trump thread wrote the article saying it would open in 3,900 theaters.

Glad to hear it's opening to more than 4,000. The fact that it's showing around the clock in many locations gives it a leg up (and is already almost selling out many showings). Well see what kind of walk up business it does.

The article put 100M OW DOM as the low end.......has someone at Forbes been ingesting psychotropics for breakfast???

 

[InCali]

I was watching the NFL pre-game shows and virtually every frelling commercial and NFL commentary piece contains a Star Wars reference. Disney must be making a fortune on not just the free advertising, but just by allowing Subway, Car Manufacturers, etc. access to the Star Wars material. Every time I turn around, there's some Star Wars reference. I don't remember anything like this.........

 

[jokesonm3]

I say that this films gonna take less than a week to cross the billion dollar mark and i'm just playing that safe, look at some of these $1B films of 2015 and how long it took em to reach that mark:

AOU: 24 days to $1B

F7: 17 days to $1B

JW: 13 days to $1B

 

[InCali]

I say that this films gonna take less than a week to cross the billion dollar mark and i'm just playing that safe, look at some of these $1B films of 2015 and how long it took em to reach that mark:

AOU: 24 days to $1B

F7: 17 days to $1B

JW: 13 days to $1B

I think there's a late opening in China? What are your predictions for first week on a country by country basis? (No need to include the independent people's republic of the southern states of the northeastern semi-dependent country of.....).

 

[jokesonm3]

I think there's a late opening in China? What are your predictions for first week on a country by country basis? (No need to include the independent people's republic of the southern states of the northeastern semi-dependent country of.....).

No idea but it'll definitely stay at number 1 in many countries for weeks and have a WW OW of at least $600m t:

 

[InCali]

No idea but it'll definitely stay at number 1 in many countries for weeks and have a WW OW of at least $600m t:

I think we need help from SomeOldGuy. Looks like a pretty wide opening sans China. Anyone out there have any interest? If not, I think I'll check it out sometime next week.

Dec. 16
France, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, Finland, Philippines, Thailand.

Dec. 17
U.K., Germany, Austria, Russia, South Korea, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand.

Dec. 18
North America (following late-night previews on Dec. 17 in select theaters), Japan, Spain, Venezuela.

 

[kickass]

How many countries did Jurassic World open up in leading up to its North American debut?

 

[InCali]

How many countries did Jurassic World open up in leading up to its North American debut?

I think it opened virtually everywhere 6/10-12. I think the only major market where it opened later was Japan so it definitely has an opening week advantage over SW. This is one of those "records" that is totally dependent on happenstance.

 

[InCali]

I think we need help from SomeOldGuy. Looks like a pretty wide opening sans China. Anyone out there have any interest? If not, I think I'll check it out sometime next week.

Dec. 16
France, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, Finland, Philippines, Thailand.

Dec. 17
U.K., Germany, Austria, Russia, South Korea, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand.

Dec. 18
North America (following late-night previews on Dec. 17 in select theaters), Japan, Spain, Venezuela.

Well, I looked around and it looks like JW took in about 525M opening weekend, but that included 100M from China. It did another 88M the rest of the week in the US so maybe figure another 120M International in the first 7 days??? That would bring the total to maybe 733M for the first 7 days??? When you pull China out of the equation, it looks a lot closer to 600M.

In other words, TFA would have to SMASH records in order to get anywhere near 1B in the first couple of weeks. The job is much harder because of the later opening in China.

 

[nightwing06]

One of the big reasons why SW:TFA will do extremely well at the box office:

 

[Greens]

Disney just revealed that TFA has beaten the pre-sales record set by Spectre in my country. That's good news.

 

[kickass]

^^ Which was what?

 

[kickass]

I'm not one to brag and I am fully aware the amount of money a movie makes doesn't mean it's any good. I think we can all agree on that. But for this, I really want TFA to destroy all records lol.

I mean, it already has destroyed 2 records so far. Most pre-sales ever and most pre-sales for IMAX ever (over $6 million. The previous IMAX pre-sale record was less than a million lol).

 

[Greens]

^^ Which was what?

Spectre set the record with 70,000 tickets (it doesn't sound too impressive because Holland is a small country). TFA has sold 115,000 tickets so far, which means they beat the record by a long shot.

 

[InCali]

I'm not one to brag and I am fully aware the amount of money a movie makes doesn't mean it's any good. I think we can all agree on that. But for this, I really want TFA to destroy all records lol.

I mean, it already has destroyed 2 records so far. Most pre-sales ever and most pre-sales for IMAX ever (over $6 million. The previous IMAX pre-sale record was less than a million lol).

If it's really, really good, I think it has a shot at Avatar. There's really no stiff competition for it on the horizon for quite some time.....until Zoolander 2 gets released.

 

[kickass]

You don't think The H8ful Eight and The Revenant won't do some damage? They come out the week after.

 

[Greens]

The Hateful Eight and The Revenant have the same limited audience. I'm looking forward to both movies, don't get me wrong, but they won't put a dent in TFA's box office.

 

[redfirebird2008]

3,900 screens? Is that official? Maybe they cut down on the number of theatres showing it because there will be so many showtimes around the clock and that makes up for the loss of locations? That would kinda push people to fill up the very early AM showtimes if their local theatre doesn't play it nearby.

I hope it opens to over 4,000 screens though. I don't see why Disney/Lucasfilm/BadRobot/etc....... wouldn't or couldn't dictate a much higher number of screens or locations when they're the biggest of the big lol.

Not screens, theaters. Each theater will have it on multiple screens except for the really small theaters that only have a few screens total. The big ones with 20+ screens will likely have it on over 10 screens. Total domestic screen count will likely be around 15,000 if I had to guess.

 

[InCali]

You don't think The H8ful Eight and The Revenant won't do some damage? They come out the week after.

Any movie will do SOME damage. The question is how much. I can't see either or them taking much business away from TFA and I'm not worried about Chipmunks either.

I can see TFA being #1 at the box office for 5 weeks (who knows, maybe more) if it's a good one.

 

[lespaul59]

My guess for the box office is:
$170 million on the low side
$224 million on the high side

On a side note I just hope there aren't a lot of fans who have unrealistic expectations. I have no problem with people who want a good moive because I'm right there with you. But it's the people who may think The Force Awakenes has to be as good as or better than the OT or people who may be upset over things such as [BLACKOUT]Snoke not being Plagueis[/BLACKOUT] or something along those lines. I've just seen so much talk over speculations that if some of those things don't happen people will more than likely be upset. By the way I'm not asking for spoilers or anything as I've made it a point to avoid them. I just hope people don't set their expectations so high that TFA can never meet them.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Will it dethrone the king or even come close is the real question?

 

[jokesonm3]

Will it dethrone the king or even come close is the real question?

I say yes.