The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread

[SomeOldGuy]

Yup. Blowing up WW, at least as much as it cam blow up w/o China.

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice 5m5 minutes ago
All 12 int'l markets where THE FORCE AWAKENS debuted were the biggest STAR WARS opening days in the history of the franchise.

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice 12m12 minutes ago
THE FORCE AWAKENS had the largest single industry day of all-time in Norway ($1.1M) and Sweden ($1.7M).

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice 9m9 minutes ago
The only int'l markets that THE FORCE AWAKENS won't open this weekend are China, India and Greece. Time to move.

 

[rashad]

The Force Awakens Internationally with $14.1 Million on Wednesday

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS BOX OFFICE MOVIE NEWS STAR WARS
BY CS ON DECEMBER 17, 2015

The Force Awakens with $14.1 million internationally on Wednesday

The Force Awakens opened yesterday in 12 material international markets, placing #1 in each, with an estimated $14.1 million overall. Here’s the breakdown:

France $5.2M
Italy $2.0M
Sweden $1.7M
Norway $1.1M
Denmark $1.0M
Belgium $0.8M
Netherlands $0.8M
Finland $0.6M
Other markets $0.9M
Total $14.1M

Pictures released the following highlights for the Lucasfilm release:

– Biggest single industry day of all-time in Norway and Sweden.
– Biggest industry opening day of all-time in Belgium, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland (French-speaking).
– Biggest Disney opening day of all-time in France, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, South Africa and Switzerland (French-speaking).
– Biggest opening day of 2015 in Belgium, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland (French-speaking).
– All markets are the biggest Star Wars opening days ever.
– France – #1 opening with biggest ever December, Disney and Star Wars opening day. More than double the opening day of Avengers and almost double the opening day of Jurassic World.
– Italy – #1 opening with biggest ever December and Star Wars opening day. Almost double the opening day of The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies.
– Several markets posted the biggest IMAX opening day of all-time.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens continues rolling out internationally with another 32 material international markets opening up today, including Germany, UK, Russia, Australia, Korea, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Japan and Spain then also open up tomorrow so that by the weekend the movie will be open in all international markets around the world with the exception of China, India and Greece.

http://www.comingsoon.net/movies/ne...14-1-million-on-wednesday#OglVzb6Cf7i49h8y.99

 

[Tim_Riggins]

With replay value and the holidays coming up, this will blow up the roof. Needless to say it'll have infinitely better legs than Jurassic World, and just plain great legs. I can't imagine the China number, 300 M minimum?

It blew up the presales and midnight records in Australia, and insiders believe it could make as much as 100 M just there alone.

 

[Lily Adler]

Could this topple Avatar?

 

[Greens]

‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ Sells Most Movie Tickets in History

“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” hasn’t even opened yet and the science-fiction fantasy has already sold more tickets than any other film in history, Fandango said Thursday.

The seventh film in the hit franchise previously shattered pre-sales records, but now the online ticketer reports that it has sold more tickets than any film has moved during its entire theatrical run.

To earn the record, “The Force Awakens” moved past “Jurassic World.” The rest of the top five biggest sellers are “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire,” “Avengers: Age of Ultron,” and “The Hunger Games.”

Fandango did not release the total number of tickets sold, but sources tell Variety that “The Force Awakens” has already generated more than $100 million in pre-sales and that seats have been purchased into 2016. Industry analysts believe that “The Force Awakens” will break “Jurassic World’s” record $208.4 million opening to become the biggest debut in history.

Worried that talk of packed houses might dissuade people from hitting theaters, Disney stressed that there are still seats available when “The Force Awakens” opens on Thursday.

“We are obviously very encouraged by the record-breaking presales for ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens,'” Dave Hollis, Disney’s distribution chief said in a statement. “But there are literally millions of tickets available for this weekend, and exhibitors have a lot of flexibility in terms of capacity and increasing the number of shows based on demand.”

http://variety.com/2015/film/box-office/star-wars-force-awakens-tickets-fandango-1201664109/

 

[Leenie]

Could this topple Avatar?

I certainly hope so.

(I can't stand Avatar ...)

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Avatar is probably a once in a lifetime thing. I can see TFA go to 2.2, 2.3 billion WW though.

 

[Spitfire]

When I saw the movie this morning the cinema was nearly full and the audience ranged from teenagers to OAPs. This movie appeals to such a broad range of people I wouldn't be surprised if it hits $2bn minimum.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

2 billion is an absolute minimum. Like you say, widest appeal ever, the young, the old who have witnessed ANH in 77.

 

[Lily Adler]

Plus you have the generation that watched the prequel trilogy... And want something better.

 

[ares834]

2 billion is an absolute minimum. Like you say, widest appeal ever, the young, the old who have witnessed ANH in 77.

Best to keep your exceptions in check. Star Wars isn't nearly as large in a lot of foreign markets as it is in America.

Yes, I think it will make over 2 Billion but to say that that's the floor is just silly and a good way to potentially set yourself up for disappointment.

 

[Spitfire]

2 billion is an absolute minimum. Like you say, widest appeal ever, the young, the old who have witnessed ANH in 77.

Couldn't agree more. I think the people who saw ANH in 77 may be the most excited fans I know!

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Best to keep your exceptions in check. Star Wars isn't nearly as large in a lot of foreign markets as it is in America.

Yes, I think it will make over 2 Billion but to say that that's the floor is just silly and a good way to potentially set yourself up for disappointment.

This is Star Wars. I don't think anything more needs to be said, presales are also breaking records in Brazil, Russia, etc, etc

 

[InCali]

This is Star Wars. I don't think anything more needs to be said, presales are also breaking records in Brazil, Russia, etc, etc

All the Friday TCL Chinese IMAX seats (seats almost 1,000 per showing) are basically sold out. That includes the 5:15AM and 2AM showings. There are a few seats in the first few rows and that's basically it. The line to pick up my ticket (5:15AM) is going to be a nightmare......

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Could this topple Avatar?

Domestic gross? It has a good chance providing TFA gets over 225 m opening weekend. Winter blockbusters have better legs than summer ones. Especially with all the repeat viewing TFA will get.

Worldwide? This will be much harder. Star Wars has never been as popular overseas as it is in North America. And Avatar made way more money than any other blockbuster overseas. Movies that make one billion overseas are rare. Avatar made around 2 billion.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

BOM is predicting $231 million OW when all the dust clears.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4131&p=.htm

The piece has a look at all the records that could be broken for quick 'n' easy reference:

Largest Thursday Preshow: $43.5 million (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2*)
Largest Friday, Opening Day, Single Day: $91 million (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2)
Largest Saturday: $69.6 million (Jurassic World)
Largest Sunday: $57.2 million (Jurassic World)
December Single Day: $37.13 million (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
December Opening Weekend: $84.62 million (The Hobbit An Unexpected Journey)
Domestic Opening Weekend: $208.8 million (Jurassic World)
International Opening Weekend: $316.1 million (Jurassic World)
Global Opening Weekend: $524.9 million (Jurassic World)
Highest Per Theater Average (Wide Opening): $48,855 / 4,274 theaters (Jurassic World)
Top Opening Weekend for PG-13 Rated Film: $208.8 million (Jurassic World)
Top Holiday Opening Weekend**: $158 million (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)
#1 Movie Weekend Market Share: 84.5% of Top 12 (Avengers: Age of Ultron)
Biggest Weekend Overall (Top 12 Gross): $266 million (June 12-14, 2015)
Biggest December Weekend (Top 12 Gross): $259.9 million (Dec 25-27, 2009)
Fastest to $100 Million: 2 Days (Jurassic World)

* Midnight only
** Holiday is defined as the first Friday in November through New Year's week or weekend.

 

[InCali]

I just want opening day to have 100 million+ i don't think any movie has opened with a 100 million

You just might get your wish. They (whoever "they" are) are predicting 50M on Thursday showings....beats Potter by about 6.5M. That was a very, very front loaded movie. We'll see about TFA.....

It's getting really good reviews. If people like it a lot, it's going to be nuts for a few weeks.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

Damn. Buy some Disney stock.

 

[Spitfire]

Vue cinemas in the UK sold 60,000 tickets last night for TFA. An impressive $1bn in pre-ticket sales worldwide has also been estimated.

TFA is definitely a contender to knock Avatar from the top box office spot.

 

[PacificBoy]

Domestic gross? It has a good chance providing TFA gets over 225 m opening weekend. Winter blockbusters have better legs than summer ones. Especially with all the repeat viewing TFA will get.

Worldwide? This will be much harder. Star Wars has never been as popular overseas as it is in North America. And Avatar made way more money than any other blockbuster overseas. Movies that make one billion overseas are rare. Avatar made around 2 billion.

Yeah, it's gonna make huge bank in China but expectations need to be tempered by two factors: One, SW isn't big here (we just don't hold as much affection for the characters/universe) so the real payoff could be in the next SW movie once audiences get familiar with this incarnation. Two, it's opening close to Chinese New Year where it'll compete with big CNY movies.

 

[jmc]

Apparently it's on course to beat the opening weekend record set by Harry Potter 7 Part 2 down here in Australia. It's sold $15m in advanced tickets already. The Record is about $29m.

 

[Deserana]

Nothing of note to add but where I live (a city in the UK) it's insane. Last night all 13 screens were showing TFA at midnight and the place was so full. I think every screen bar 2 were sold out. And now I've seen that almost all showing up till next Wednesday are sold out. I don't live in London or Manchester or any big city and I can safely safely say as a common moviegoer that I have never seen such big crowds for a single film where I live. I just did not expect it.

Add to that I heard a LOT of people say they want to see again.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yeah, at my local Cinemark three of the eight shows tonight are sold out, the earliest 3D show and the two earliest regular cinema shows.

 

[InCali]

I getting totally psyched. I'm going to have to get up at 3:30am tomorrow morning in order to get there maybe an hour early to pick up my ticket. 94 on RT is way, way up there. If that's any indication of how much people are going to like it, there going to be a ton of repeat viewers. I think people are starved for a good SW movie. That sucking sound you hear is money leaving people's wallets and going into Disney's bank account. That 4B they paid is starting to look like a steal. I can't believe I'm saying that, but that's how it looks. We're not even talking merchandise. Do you have any idea how much SW stuff is going to get sold over the holidays? You can't even turn on TV without hearing something about TFA. It's completely crazy.....

 

[InCali]

Yeah, at my local Cinemark three of the eight shows tonight are sold out, the earliest 3D show and the two earliest regular cinema shows.

There are no decent seats available at premium theaters in my neck of the woods.