The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread

[DarthSkywalker]

I think Christmas week is going to be out of control, with everyone off from work/school.

I agree. I think it has a legit shot at the second weekend record.

Aliens vs Predator Requiem opened on Christmas Eve and pulled nearly $50 million overnight . I was there even though I knew it was gonna be a **** movie.

Christmas is actually the biggest day of the year for the theater. The week leading up is different though, because people are traveling and shopping so much.

 

[Sithborg]

I think that the fact that Christmas is on a Fri this year will help this weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I understand trying to be realistic. You know the hype is real. Give into it...

BTW, my 8:50 am showing this morning was 75% full. Got my sweet Mondo glass as well.

Great to hear you got the glasses.

I don't want to give into the hype just yet. I fully believe it will do it, but I can't be sure until it is done. The numbers already are insane. But if it does happen, I might need to do a bit of gloating considering how many were underestimating Star Wars. A lot here and on other Hype! boards couldn't help but downplay Star Wars, like it isn't relevant anymore. Marvel, DC, they are insignificant next to the power of the Force. t:

 

[Sithborg]

Oh, there needs to be a bumping of threads.

 

[rashad]

I feel bad for Tina Fey and Amy Poehler.

It's counter-programming. The film is rated R.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think that the fact that Christmas is on a Fri this year will help this weekend.

Exactly. It is the perfect storm. Also, on track for $100m in one day.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Exactly. It is the perfect storm. Also, on track for $100m in one day.

Holy ****.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

They are literally going to make all their money back from the sale in tickets and merch on the first movie. The first one. $4.1 billion deal, paid off like that.

 

[InCali]

Exactly. It is the perfect storm. Also, on track for $100m in one day.

If it did 57M on Thursday, 100M seems like a walk in the park. 120M+ seems more like it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If it did 57M on Thursday, 100M seems like a walk in the park. 120M+ seems more like it.

Not sure. So many went last night, there should be a bit less traffic today. Though, maybe you are right. When I went this morning, the theater was full again.

 

[Sithborg]

I do think that the 100 million number includes the Thur shows. Obviously, a breeze. If my 9 am show is anything to go by, we are looking at another 60-80 million today. Easy.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Great to hear you got the glasses.

I don't want to give into the hype just yet. I fully believe it will do it, but I can't be sure until it is done. The numbers already are insane. But if it does happen, I might need to do a bit of gloating considering how many were underestimating Star Wars. A lot here and on other Hype! boards couldn't help but downplay Star Wars, like it isn't relevant anymore. Marvel, DC, they are insignificant next to the power of the Force. t:

Marvel brand still is number one to me overall, considering it will be churning out 3 movies a year going forward. Rogue One will tell us just how the Star Wars brand matches up to Marvel overall. As it stands right now Marvel can put out a movie about a guy who talks to ants and it will do half a billion dollars.

But if you are talking about the main Star Wars Episodes versus the Avengers? Then yeah, Star Wars wins.

 

[Horhey]

Christmas is actually the biggest day of the year for the theater. The week leading up is different though, because people are traveling and shopping so much.

Nah, I said Christmas Eve.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Marvel brand still is number one to me overall, considering it will be churning out 3 movies a year going forward. Rogue One will tell us just how the Star Wars brand matches up to Marvel overall. As it stands right now Marvel can put out a movie about a guy who talks to ants and it will do half a billion dollars.

But if you are talking about the main Star Wars Episodes versus the Avengers? Then yeah, Star Wars wins.

Star Wars is going to make as much money this weekend as Ant-Man did in its entire run. By next weekend, it will have passed all but IM3, AoU and the Avengers. Let that sink in.

 

[Sithborg]

A lot of records are on the line. I think pretty much all of Jurassic World's are about to fall. Just reading some of the Thur numbers overseas is crazy. They beat Jurassic World's international first day WITHOUT CHINA.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Star Wars is going to make as much money this weekend as Ant-Man did in its entire run. By next weekend, it will have passed all but IM3, AoU and the Avengers. Let that sink in.

No doubt, the power of the episode movies is not in question, it's the brand's ability to branch out and sustain mini-franchises like the MCU does. That's where Rogue One comes in.

 

[Horhey]

Marvel brand still is number one to me overall,

Spoiler

J/k. I like Marvel too. Not as much as Star Wars though. With all due respect to Hugh Jackman, they did Wolverine no justice imo.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

No doubt, the power of the episode movies is not in question, it's the brands ability to branch out and sustain mini-franchises like the MCU does. That's where Rogue One comes in.

Rogue One isn't going to fall off a cliff. This is wishful thinking. Also, Star Wars isn't making min-franchises, there is one franchise, Star Wars. That is what they will sell.

This is also all irrelevant if each sage episode is going to make crazy cash.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Rogue One isn't going to fall off a cliff. This is wishful thinking. Also, Star Wars isn't making min-franchises, there is one franchise, Star Wars.

There will be anthology movies and saga movies. The saga movies have no rival, the anthology movies are unknowns as to how they will perform.

 

[Sithborg]

I will be curious how Rogue One does. I do think keeping one Star Wars film a year will help avoid some of the bloat that is happening.

 

[InCali]

Star Wars is going to make as much money this weekend as Ant-Man did in its entire run. By next weekend, it will have passed all but IM3, AoU and the Avengers. Let that sink in.

It depends how you're looking at it. As a single entity, certainly SW dwarfs just about everything (at least this one looks to). People were starving for a good SW movie. Marvel has a different strategy. What they are doing is building a broad based group of characters and doing it often enough and successfully enough to just roll in the dough.

We'll get a SW movie every 2 years or something like that. We'll get 6 or even 7 very successful Marvel movies in that same time period. The 2 Avengers movies made almost 3 billion by themselves and Marvel has the highest grossing studio franchise ever. As a single entity, SW is at a bit of a competitive disadvantage, but head to head with The Avengers (for example), it stacks up quite well.

Disney ain't complaining about either approach. I think we can all agree on that.

I have a super soft spot in my heart for the Marvel superheroes. I grew up reading their comics. It's basically how I learned to read.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

There will be anthology movies and saga movies. The saga movies have no rival, the anthology movies are unknowns as to how they will perform.

I know what they are doing. I also know how they will sell it. That is why they got right of the Anthology subtitle. They aren't going to underplay it as side stories.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It depends how you're looking at it. As a single entity, certainly SW dwarfs just about everything (at least this one looks to). People were starving for a good SW movie. Marvel has a different strategy. What they are doing is building a broad based group of characters and doing it often enough and successfully enough to just roll in the dough.

We'll get a SW movie every 2 years or something like that. We'll get 6 or even 7 very successful Marvel movies in that same time period. The 2 Avengers movies made almost 3 billion by themselves and Marvel has the highest grossing studio franchise ever. As a single entity, SW is at a bit of a competitive disadvantage, but head to head with The Avengers (for example), it stacks up quite well.

Disney ain't complaining about either approach. I think we can all agree on that.

I have a super soft spot in my heart for the Marvel superheroes. I grew up reading their comics. It's basically how I learned to read.

There is going to be a Star Wars movie every year.

Also, Marvel hasn't come close to selling the amount of tickets as Star Wars has. Adjusted for inflation, the 7 Star Wars films are miles ahead.

 

[Silver Surfer]

It depends how you're looking at it. As a single entity, certainly SW dwarfs just about everything (at least this one looks to). People were starving for a good SW movie. Marvel has a different strategy. What they are doing is building a broad based group of characters and doing it often enough and successfully enough to just roll in the dough.

We'll get a SW movie every 2 years or something like that. We'll get 6 or even 7 very successful Marvel movies in that same time period. The 2 Avengers movies made almost 3 billion by themselves and Marvel has the highest grossing studio franchise ever. As a single entity, SW is at a bit of a competitive disadvantage, but head to head with The Avengers (for example), it stacks up quite well.

Disney ain't complaining about either approach. I think we can all agree on that.

I have a super soft spot in my heart for the Marvel superheroes. I grew up reading their comics. It's basically how I learned to read.

Yeah, it's the numbers game, 3 Marvel movies to 1 Star Wars movie, even though that 1 Star Wars movie will be the highest grossing film of the year.

 

[Tilapia]

There is going to be a Star Wars movie every year.

Also, Marvel hasn't come close to selling the amount of tickets as Star Wars has. Adjusted for inflation, the 7 Star Wars films are miles ahead.

Star Wars invented the modern day blockbuster and it has always been the most lucrative franchise of all time in terms of mass appeal and potential. Only Potter comes close, but sequels to that franchise won't gross much more than the originals have adjusted. It doesn't have the same type of fanbase or hype. MCU I see suffering similar problems after Infinity War.

You are looking at 5 billion minimum for this trilogy alone, and another 2 billion for all the spinoffs to come. Then the franchise needs a breather for sure. Go back to a Knights of the Old Republic trilogy, or another prequel, before doing 10-12. 10-12 needs to be another 30 plus year type of sequel.