The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Tymminator]

Makes all of the people who said "Star Wars is not relevant anymore and won't do as well as you think" look straight up silly.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Normally I'd agree with this statement, however it's clear there are circumstances at play here that are unprecedented. There are 9AM sessions at my local theatre that are close to sold out, even for massive films like Avengers or Harry Potter you'd be lucky to see the cinema half full that early in the day. Basically we're in uncharted waters here and what happens this weekend could completely rewrite the rulebook.

Hey, if it happens, I would more then love to be proven wrong. I like to preach caution in these situations, but I would love for it to get that high. But what I even care more about is week to week drops. If it can sustain through the rest of December, Avatar's domestic total is definitely in reach.

 

[Sithborg]

Yeah, the third weekend is going to be key. The second weekend is going to be boosted by Christmas business.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah, the third weekend is going to be key. The second weekend is going to be boosted by Christmas business.

If Star Wars is sitting at $450m-500m after the second weekend, Christmas or not, it is getting to Avatar. It won't even be that hard at that point. Say it does get to $275m, and considering all the estimates have been under so far, say it gets there. Then during the first 4 weekdays it makes $70m-80m. It is easily going to make $100m next weekend, probably a lot more. After all, they already sold $50m in pre-sales for next weekend already. There may be a legit threat of TFA being at $500m domestically after its second weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

And everyone I know who's seen is already planning multiple trips back. It's insane.

No, it is Star Wars. t:

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

A $130M-$145M Friday & $250M-$275M Weekend!!!!!!!!!



http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

Holy ****. I have the tendency to over-hype things, and that can sometimes come back to bite me in the ass, but this movie has absolutely exceeded, surpassed, and annihilated all expectations. Critically, financially, you name it. This is the perfect storm.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Just got back. Late afternoon, boring old regular cinema, was about 60-70% full. Big line for the next 3D show when we were leaving. Based on snatches of conversations I heard walking past at least a few were already on their second run through. Theater has bumped up showings from 18 to 22 a day.

Oh, the movie? BEST EARLY XMAS PRESENT EVER!

 

[danoyse]

No, it is Star Wars. t:

Was it ever.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

After seeing the numbers from today, the movie would have to tank real hard over the weekend (which it won't) for it not to beat Jurassic World's OW total. I questioned if the movie could do so well in December but it just shows how much people were really wanting another good SW movie.

 

[jmc]

I've long said that the date when a movie is release is completely irrelevant and that more is made about certain dates than really there should be. A good film that's properly marketed can open any week and be successful.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Was it ever.

t:

 

[Iceman]

I've long said that the date when a movie is release is completely irrelevant and that more is made about certain dates than really there should be. A good film that's properly marketed can open any week and be successful.

Same here. And every time they release a massive film in a month were they haven't yet done that it totally destroys the previous records for the month.

 

[mclay18]

I think a $300 million o.w. number is in reach. It just depends on the Saturday and Sunday holds.

This movie is an absolute monster. You could open this flick in January or February and it'd do amazing business.

 

[Jonwo]

I imagine Episode VIII will have a huge drop off from TFA and TBH it happened with Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones so it wouldn't that much of a surprise especially if they keep on Memorial Day 2017.

 

[Marvolo]

The Force Awakens made $130 million worldwide on Thursday night screenings!!!

Back in 2011, HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS - PART 2 broke the record for the most money made in "evening previews" with $43.5 million. This probably comes as no surprise, but STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS demolished that domestic record, bringing in $57 million last night! As Box Office Mojo also points out, FORCE AWAKENS broke the previous Thursday record set by REVENGE OF THE SITH, which was $50 million.
If you want to jump into international numbers, AWAKENS has brought in $72.7 million elsewhere. That's a combined total of $130 million!

http://www.joblo.com/movie-news/the-force-awakens-brings-in-57-million-from-thursday-screenings-314

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4132&p=.htm

The people that said Captain America Civil War could beat TFA at the box office... yeah good luck with that.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Jurassic World will fall, Avatar will fall and

 

[Tilapia]

Anyone have numbers in China and SK? If it's not breaking records there, it has no shot at Avatar. Actually doesn't China get this a lot later? That might help boost it if the anticipation is high.

 

[Sithborg]

It hasn't opened in China.

 

[InCali]

The reduction in domestic ticket sales is negated by the explosion of the international market and 3D. Avatar and Titanic didn't happen in the 70s and 80s, and adjusted, they are still top 10 films. If TFA makes over $2 bil WW, it will be in that ball park as well.

And it really isn't close. Star Wars made as much money as the Avengers did worldwide, domestically. Three others are in the top 15. Adjusted for inflation, all but AotC made a billion. In Star Wars case, it is over $2.5bil. That without premium formats, which change the ticket price significantly.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

It might or might not be negated. I don't know if anyone has looked at this closely. My old job was as a statistician and funny things happen when you change variables. Doing a good job of comparing these movies to each other is very, very tricky business and it might not really be possible. All we can do is make educated guesses.

The bottom line is that we just don't know. Avengers/AoU/JW did great. Titanic/Avatar did great with a different time slot. TFA seems to have caught the best of both worlds and looks to just shred.

I'm mesmerized by outliers like TFA and am rooting for it, but I generally take the simple approach and just compare BO numbers. It's biased, but so is # of tickets sold. All I'm saying is that it's apples and oranges and both are really good apples and really good oranges.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Anyone have numbers in China and SK? If it's not breaking records there, it has no shot at Avatar. Actually doesn't China get this a lot later? That might help boost it if the anticipation is high.

If TFA makes enough in North America, Europe and Latin America it could make up for shortages in Asia.

 

[InCali]

I've long said that the date when a movie is release is completely irrelevant and that more is made about certain dates than really there should be. A good film that's properly marketed can open any week and be successful.

There are some smart people who know more about this than we do. All things being equal, which they never are, I personally think that a movie released in May is less likely to have the legs of one released in December. Someone has decided that summer is the time to release their blockbusters. That can change. I"m sure they've got people rethinking this all the time.

 

[InCali]

I imagine Episode VIII will have a huge drop off from TFA and TBH it happened with Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones so it wouldn't that much of a surprise especially if they keep on Memorial Day 2017.

And my personal opinion is that ESB was the best SW movie yet. I hope my opinion of that changes tomorrow.

 

[Marvolo]

Its not completely irrelevent. Never has been. For instance in January and February in North America a chunk of the country is experiencing sub freezing temps and ****** weather and less people want to leave the house. And people are usually broke right after christmas. Some months are alwayd going to be better than others.

 

[Mysteryman]

Yeah, the third weekend is going to be key. The second weekend is going to be boosted by Christmas business.

The third weekend has the New Years Holiday.

 

[Tilapia]

If you had weather like last weekend, this thing would have easily eclipsed 300 million. It was like an April day in the northern parts of the country. Mid December is probably the top release date. Look at the top three grossing films when all is said and done. Memorial Day and July 4th just don't pack the same punch being sandwiched as they are these days.