Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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Absorbing a $30 million or greater loss in order to cling to character rights you have absolutely no idea how to use is a truly awful business maneuver. FOX would likely have made out much better by cutting a deal with Marvel before this thing went into production. If Fant4stic flops, whatever bargaining power the studio had back in 2014 will have been greatly diminished.

You are playing the hindsight game now. I highly doubt that they knew they were going to have the kind of problems they did during production.

Besides, a roughly 4.3 million a year as an extension of the FF movie rights doesn't sound like a bad deal. Unless you don't think the FF is worth that much.
 
You are playing the hindsight game now. I highly doubt that they knew they were going to have the kind of problems they did during production.

Besides, a roughly 4.3 million a year as an extension of the FF movie rights doesn't sound like a bad deal. Unless you don't think the FF is worth that much.
Fox approached this badly, actually. In 2009, they announced the reboot, and nothing on it for the next 4 - 5 years. They literally started production towards the tail end of when the rights expire. They had it coming for their unprofessional way of approaching this film.
 
I'm getting Pacific Rim 2 because it set records in China. That, or Thomas Tull is a financial wizard. I'm leaning toward wizard, but it does seem to be betting on an increase in the Chineses market.
God bless China.

tumblr_mm1chjfRtD1r4noq0o1_500.gif
 
Totally not true, as the fast majority of major films rely on the OS market. This includes Marvel and DC.
They also rely on the domestic market. The fact that studios keep roughly 55% of domestic box office vs 30-40% of overseas BO makes a huge difference. It's better to make at least a modest revenue domestically, than to flop domestically and hope for the best overseas.

For an example, Man of Steel made $291m domestically. That translates to $160m for the studio. It made $377m overseas. That translates to $113m-150m for the studio. Technically, Man of Steel made more money OS, but WB profited because of the domestic revenue.
Sithborg said:
I'm getting Pacific Rim 2 because it set records in China. That, or Thomas Tull is a financial wizard. I'm leaning toward wizard, but it does seem to be betting on an increase in the Chineses market.
Pacific Rim is an exception. Not the rule.
 
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Fox approached this badly, actually. In 2009, they announced the reboot, and nothing on it for the next 4 - 5 years. They literally started production towards the tail end of when the rights expire. They had it coming for their unprofessional way of approaching this film.
I don't disagree that Fox handled this extremely poorly. But, the major problem here is Trank and no one expected this. No one. It got so bad, he lost his Star Wars job.
 
I don't disagree that Fox handled this extremely poorly. But, the major problem here is Trank and no one expected this. No one. It got so bad, he lost his Star Wars job.

I agree, Trank is culprit no.1 if(when) this film tanks. Thankfully, he'll be properly punish with no career in the business.
 
$30m because of Trank. The reshoots and fixes added a good $40-50m to this film.

It's been Trank's film which Fox appointed for the sole purpose of saving a buck. Using him as a scapegoat in the 9th inning is supposed to do what exactly? Its still a Fox film nobody cares who directed Elektra.
 
They also rely on the domestic market. The fact that studios keep roughly 55% of domestic revenue vs 30-40% of overseas revenue makes a huge difference. It's better to make at least a modest revenue domestically, than to flop domestically and hope for the best overseas.
You can't make any money at the domestic market for any movie that cost more then $200m, unless you make over $400m domestically.

The OS market is bigger. It is a combination of thousands of territories. Avatar and Titanic didn't get to over $2bil based on domestic money.

For an example, Man of Steel made $291m domestically. That translates to $160m for the studio. It made $377m overseas. That translates to $113m-150m for the studio. Technically, Man of Steel made more money OS, but WB profited because of the domestic revenue.
The amount available OS is far more then domestic totals. That is the entire point. Look at JW, Minions, Furious 7, and AoU just this summer.

Pacific Rim is an exception. Not the rule.
It is the rule now. Look at PotC4 and how we are getting 5. The Transformer flicks continue to go down domestically, but up overall.

Using your logic, TWS or Maleficent were bombs. They clearly weren't.
 
It's been Trank's film which Fox appointed for the sole purpose of saving a buck. Using him as a scapegoat in the 9th inning is supposed to do what exactly? Its still a Fox film nobody cares who directed Elektra.
Trank's rep coming in was great. It is the actual making of this film that revealed who he is truly is. He isn't a scapegoat, he is an actual problem.
 
After this summer's box office events, determining how much a movie will make has become unpredictable. I mean NO ONE saw what was going to happen with JP and people thought Terminator was going to be a bit successful.

Tracking has been way off.

We honestly don't know when the General Public will show up at the box office or not.
 
I don't disagree that Fox handled this extremely poorly. But, the major problem here is Trank and no one expected this. No one. It got so bad, he lost his Star Wars job.
I remember when Bleeding Cool reported that Fox were trying to bring on another director and get rid of Trank and I did not believe that report but now...yeah I do. You are correct, nobody could have guessed how much trouble he would be. Josh Trank was a hot young director coming off of a well reviewed hit and Fox probably thought that he was another sorta Bryan Singer and oh boy were they wrong. I can't imagine how much they regret the decision to allow him to direct the Fantastic Four reboot.
After this summer's box office events, determining how much a movie will make has become unpredictable. I mean NO ONE saw what was going to happen with JP and people thought Terminator was going to be a bit successful.

Tracking has been way off.

We honestly don't know when the General Public will show up at the box office or not.
If anyone still thought that Terminator was going to be a hit after that deplorable synopsis leaked and the horrendous EW photo shoot then they weren't paying attention close enough.
 
You are playing the hindsight game now. I highly doubt that they knew they were going to have the kind of problems they did during production.

Besides, a roughly 4.3 million a year as an extension of the FF movie rights doesn't sound like a bad deal. Unless you don't think the FF is worth that much.
And you're making up excuse to justify Fox's crappy handling of this franchise.

You wouldn't have to go this extreme if Fox made better decisions.
 
Trank's rep coming in was great. It is the actual making of this film that revealed who he is truly is. He isn't a scapegoat, he is an actual problem.

I agree that Trank is the major problem here. However, all the general audience sees is yet another crappy Fantastic Four movie. After the previous films already failed the franchise is basically dead with another one. The audience will be gone.
 
You can't make any money at the domestic market for any movie that cost more then $200m, unless you make over $400m domestically.
That doesn't mean domestic BO isn't more important than OS. The studio gets 55% of the domestic box office. It only gets 1/3 of the OS revenue. That means international ticket sales would have to nearly double domestic ones to be more important. They usually don't.
DarkSkywalker said:
The OS market is bigger. It is a combination of thousands of territories. Avatar and Titanic didn't get to over $2bil based on domestic money.
You're not looking at Avatar's $2.7 billion close enough. It made $700m domestically. That means the studio already got $385m with domestic box office alone. Enough to earn a profit.
DarkSkywalker said:
The amount available OS is far more then domestic totals. That is the entire point. Look at JW, Minions, Furious 7, and AoU just this summer.
Americans continue watch movies far more than the rest of the world does. Technically, there are billions of people out there. Most of them don't watch Hollywood movies.
DarkSkywalker said:
It is the rule now. Look at PotC4 and how we are getting 5. The Transformer flicks continue to go down domestically, but up overall.

Using your logic, TWS or Maleficent were bombs. They clearly weren't.
Using your logic Superman Returns, Elysium, The Seventh Son, and Jupiter Ascending were hits. They weren't.

It's true that OS box office is becoming more significant as the years go by, but domestic box office is still more important at this moment.
 
I remember when Bleeding Cool reported that Fox were trying to bring on another director and get rid of Trank and I did not believe that report but now...yeah I do. You are correct, nobody could have guessed how much trouble he would be. Josh Trank was a hot young director coming off of a well reviewed hit and Fox probably thought that he was another sorta Bryan Singer and oh boy were they wrong. I can't imagine how much they regret the decision to allow him to direct the Fantastic Four reboot.
Yep. And he kept the ruse up long enough to get the Star Wars job. Thankfully, Star Wars has way more time and options. They replaced Trank and his film, with a film from Lord and Miller.
 
I agree that Trank is the major problem here. However, all the general audience sees is yet another crappy Fantastic Four movie. After the previous films already failed the franchise is basically dead with another one. The audience will be gone.
I agree that is what the general audience sees. But the level of failure does matter here, at least when it comes to whether we will see a sequel.
 
Besides, a roughly 4.3 million a year as an extension of the FF movie rights doesn't sound like a bad deal. Unless you don't think the FF is worth that much.


I would like to see the head of Fox go before the shareholders and say that. It is totally irrational and would get him canned.

To a rational person the rights are worth what you can make off of them. for Fox that may well be a negative amount.
 
I agree that is what the general audience sees. But the level of failure does matter here, at least when it comes to whether we will see a sequel.

I think it would have to be well-liked. The sequel isn't going to be any cheaper so there has to be some sign that the gross will increase. If this movie loses money or barely breaks even AND gets trashed on top of that, the sequel wouldn't make any money either.
 
That doesn't mean domestic BO isn't more important than OS. The studio gets 55% of the domestic box office. It only gets 1/3 of the OS revenue. That means international ticket sales would have to nearly double domestic ones to be more important. They usually don't.
They make 40% off OS box office. If you are going to include expenses OS, then you do domestically as well.

Which billion dollar film over the last 5 years didn't have OS ticket sales double domestic sales? The only answers are TDKR and Toy Story.

You're not looking at Avatar's $2.7 billion close enough. It made $700m domestically. That means the studio already got $385m with domestic box office alone. Enough to earn a profit.
Where did Avatar make the bulk of its profit? Even using your numbers, it was internationally.

If the question is if they make the same amount of money both overseas and domestically, then yes you want more domestically. But the truth is, there is far more money in the OS market now, because the OS market has been expanding rapidly the last decade.

Americans continue watch movies far more than the rest of the world does. Technically, there are billions of people out there. Most of them don't watch Hollywood movies.
Then explain every single American blockbuster released this summer having a higher box office total overseas.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2015&p=.htm

Using your logic Superman Returns, Elysium, The Seventh Son, and Jupiter Ascending were hits. They weren't.
Uh, no. I don't even know how you make this argument.

It's true that OS box office is becoming more significant as the years go by, but domestic box office is still more important at this moment.
No one has cleared a billion domestically before. It is becoming a thing more and more overseas. Especially when you can sell merch to this huge market.
 
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Yep. And he kept the ruse up long enough to get the Star Wars job. Thankfully, Star Wars has way more time and options. They replaced Trank and his film, with a film from Lord and Miller.

Ugh, what a downgrade. I was really looking forward to the Star Wars film that made it grounded and more realistic.
 
I think it would have to be well-liked. The sequel isn't going to be any cheaper so there has to be some sign that the gross will increase. If this movie loses money or barely breaks even AND gets trashed on top of that, the sequel wouldn't make any money either.
A sequel could very well be cheaper. They added a good $40-50m in trying to fix this. If we see the normal upgrade for a sequel, it would still cost less then the first film.
 
Ugh, what a downgrade. I was really looking forward to the Star Wars film that made it grounded and more realistic.
Even as a joke, this is totally not funny. :csad:

I was so annoyed about Trank. I can't even explain it. When he lost the job, like I was praying he would, I threw myself a little party, ice cream cake included. :funny:
 
I would like to see the head of Fox go before the shareholders and say that. It is totally irrational and would get him canned.

To a rational person the rights are worth what you can make off of them. for Fox that may well be a negative amount.

The funny part is that supporters of this reboot are now excepting the likelihood of this film flopping and now trying to flip it as positive. "Yay, Fox can keep a useless franchise for just $4.3m a year!"

But wait! There's more!

Lets see if we can shoehorn this crappy franchise in with a successful X-men series and see what's happens then...
 
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