Fant4stic Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[AndrewGilkison]

This movie is already at the dollar theater in my area.

 

[Eddie]

It's in my nearest discount theater as well. Mind you, that's about forty miles or so from my home.

 

[Krystal]

This movie is already at the dollar theater in my area.

I'D BUY THAT FOR A DOLLAR!!--- not really.
But for folks who want to see that awesome trank first act, which was exciting and had all that FF camaraderie we know and love...

.....it wasn't and it wasn't and it didn't.

 

[Krystal]

Any word on Friday?
Once again they only show the top 12 at Box Office Mojo.
But in the past other sites had solid numbers before mojo.

 

[Krystal]

Proboxoffice only lists the top 15 ! Lol.
I need to find a site that gives the top 25.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Looks like FF will be the second-biggest flop of the summer.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/summer-box-office-flops-tomorrowland-820498

Expected loss now put at $80-100 million. Way to go, Fox, you have to put in a lot of effort to screw up this spectacularly.

 

[Eddie]

Fox is set to lose more money on Fantastic Four than they made on X-Men: Days of Future Past.

 

[starscream22]

Fox is set to lose more money on Fantastic Four than they made on X-Men: Days of Future Past.

Ah....the fresh smell of Karma in the afternoon.

 

[Jason Kane]

Looks like FF will be the second-biggest flop of the summer.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/summer-box-office-flops-tomorrowland-820498

Expected loss now put at $80-100 million. Way to go, Fox, you have to put in a lot of effort to screw up this spectacularly.

"The shareholders aren't gonna like this, Yogi

 

[Zarex]

If you add up the results from the two Story films and FFINO, I don't think FOX has earned a dime on the franchise.

 

[Eddie]

If you add up the results from the two Story films and FFINO, I don't think FOX has earned a dime on the franchise.

It's likely they've actually lost money. Again, even DoFP pulled in less profits than most would think. The Story films, especially Silver Surfer, were likely not very profitable. RotSS may have lost money.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

If you add up the results from the two Story films and FFINO, I don't think FOX has earned a dime on the franchise.

Ha! Good point. And since Marvel is getting a cut and also reportedly getting 'maintenance fees', Fox is losing even more... While Marvel collects checks from them.t:

 

[starscream22]

Ha! Good point. And since Marvel is getting a cut and also reportedly getting 'maintenance fees', Fox is losing even more... While Marvel collects checks from them.t:

Wow how epic would it be if Marvel ends up making more from these crappy F4 flicks overall despite Fox gypping them originally at the negotiation table?

That's Karma times Irony squared!

Time for some scripture! Fantastic Four #48 (March 1966): "Galactus Does Not Like Ugly!"

 

[starscream22]

It's likely they've actually lost money. Again, even DoFP pulled in less profits than most would think. The Story films, especially Silver Surfer, were likely not very profitable. RotSS may have lost money.

Well Fox did have movie merch back then to cushion the blow. Which makes Disney taking over Marvel and putting a stop to it after FC that much more beautiful.

 

[Zarex]

It's likely they've actually lost money. Again, even DoFP pulled in less profits than most would think. The Story films, especially Silver Surfer, were likely not very profitable. RotSS may have lost money.

I think you're right. I did a quick and dirty financial breakdown of the three film. Caution - numbers and % estimates not in BO Mojo are estimated:

All #s in millions FF ROTSS FFINO

Revenue

Total BO. $331.0 $289.0 $150
Total FOX BO (50%) 165.5 144.5. 75.0
Total Merchandise 5.0. 5.0 0.0

Total Revenue. 170.5. 149.5. 75.0

Expenses.

Total Production Costs $100.0 $130.0. $122.0
Total Marketing. 50.0 50.0 50.0
Total Marvel BO (5%). 8.3. 7.2 3.8

Total Expenses. 158.3. 187.2. 175.8

Total Income/(Loss). $. 12.2. ($ 37.7). ($ 100.8)


Now TV and streaming fees improve these numbers a bit, but this series has been a disaster for FOX, with losses well over $100M for the decade. The studio may prefer to continue playing "Keep Away From Marvel", but I don't see it happening.

(Apologies, I can't get the damn #s to line up)

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Hey guys,

I went to see Ant-Man tonight because...well, I had nothing to do and hadn't seen it in several weeks. So by now, it's playing in the smaller screens here and only 3 or 4 times a day. Well, I caught the 7:15 show, expecting it to be a mostly empty theater--if anybody at all. In fact, I was so confident that it'd be a light crowd that I took my time: I came in late around 7:30 (I hate sitting through previews) thinking I'd have my pick of seating anywhere. Well, man I was surprised. The theater was packed. And I do mean, PACKED. Only the very front row had a few seats open. It was the damnedest thing. And I couldn't help but smile to myself throughout the film because it was clear that so many of the audience was made up of first-timers.

That's what you call powerful word of mouth. This film has manifested truly fantastic legs.

Speaking of "Fantastic"...um, that movie is not playing anywhere here right now. All the marketing posters and cut-outs are gone from the theaters too. It's as if it never happened. Interestingly enough, the other films that came out the same week it did i.e. Ricki are still playing though. So the theaters made a definite decision to remove Fant4stic from their midst.

 

[First Avenger]

Ant-Man really got Amazing legs.

 

[TalismanRing]

I think you're right. I did a quick and dirty financial breakdown of the three film. Caution - numbers and % estimates not in BO Mojo are estimated:

All #s in millions FF ROTSS FFINO

Revenue

Total BO. $331.0 $289.0 $150
Total FOX BO (50%) 165.5 144.5. 75.0
Total Merchandise 5.0. 5.0 0.0

Total Revenue. 170.5. 149.5. 75.0

Expenses.

Total Production Costs $100.0 $130.0. $122.0
Total Marketing. 50.0 50.0 50.0
Total Marvel BO (5%). 8.3. 7.2 3.8

Total Expenses. 158.3. 187.2. 175.8

Total Income/(Loss). $. 12.2. ($ 37.7). ($ 100.8)


Now TV and streaming fees improve these numbers a bit, but this series has been a disaster for FOX, with losses well over $100M for the decade. The studio may prefer to continue playing "Keep Away From Marvel", but I don't see it happening.

(Apologies, I can't get the damn #s to line up)

Even though streaming has taken up some of the slack DVD sales were so much bigger back in the mid 2000s and it helped the movies were kid friendly so they sold well in that regard. They both also would have made much more in TV deals.


F4 (2015)'s expenses would be much bigger than the estimate. They spent over $30m in TV ads just in the US. No way the rest of US marketing+ WW marketing amounted to another than $20m. That $80-100m loss they're calculating will most likely include projections for TV and Media revenue. And it doesn't even include the 5% of the gross to Marvel (which looks to be about $8m)

 

[Zarex]

Even though streaming has taken up some of the slack DVD sales were so much bigger back in the mid 2000s and it helped the movies were kid friendly so they sold well in that regard. They both also would have made much more in TV deals.


F4 (2015)'s expenses would be much bigger than the estimate. They spent over $30m in TV ads just in the US. No way the rest of US marketing+ WW marketing amounted to another than $20m. That $80-100m loss they're calculating will most likely include projections for TV and Media revenue. And it doesn't even include the 5% of the gross to Marvel (which looks to be about $8m)

I just plugged in $50M for marketing for all three films, as I didn't have much in the way of real #s to go on. And I was told overseas marketing expenses are taken out of the studio's BO take, which is why the % is much lower than on domestic grosses.

Marvel's BO take is another mystery. I've heard its anywhere from 5% to 10% on FF films (I used the lowest %), and calculated it on FOX's 50% rather than the total gross. Obviously it's a very rough estimate.

 

[TalismanRing]

Marvel gets a % of the total gross.

As far as I know marketing O/S doesn't cost the studio only if they use another distributor and that comes with another set of calculations etc. In China for example, the cut is only 25% but most of the marketing is done by local distributors. O/S has issues like tarrifs and taxes that cut into the % back to the studio

 

[Krystal]

This weekend, FFINO hung onto 20th place, like a blind booster hangs onto a delusion.
Just over 1 mil.
Ant-Man made 2 and a half times as much despite being out for 3 weeks longer.

Numbers don't include the last holiday of the summer movie season labor Day ---tomorrow.
Ant-man may pass $174 million dollar in DOM earnings with a good Monday.

 

[RAE072]

Looks like FF will be the second-biggest flop of the summer.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/summer-box-office-flops-tomorrowland-820498

Expected loss now put at $80-100 million. Way to go, Fox, you have to put in a lot of effort to screw up this spectacularly.

Ohhhhh that's good stuff. Gooooood stuff.

 

[Docker2.0]

There's no justification for keeping the property at all now. Fox would have to be run by complete idiots in order to justify keeping this thing, especially after losing money after three tries and no sign of life in the near future.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

There's no justification for keeping the property at all now. Fox would have to be run by complete idiots in order to justify keeping this thing, especially after losing money after three tries and no sign of life in the near future.

Well, that's not entirely too far-fetched Docker. They did make this film didn't they? Lol

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Wouldn't surprise me if they kept the rights.