Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Zarex]

The only place where I've seen actual numbers is in an old Fortune Article titled "Marvel Goes Hollywood" which was published before the release of Iron Man.

http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/05/28/100034246/index.htm

The numbers for the first two Spider man films, the original FF film and the X-Men series included DVD sales and TV revenue, which Marvel got stiffed on in the original licensing agreements (thanks Avi!).

If you calculate Marvel's reported share to the BO Mojo numbers, Marvel's % seems in line with what we have been thinking, but the X:Men looks to be a bit higher and the FF a bit lower. Perhaps the difference is due to DVD sales, which Marvel did get a very small %:

X Men films
$26M of $1.16B = 2.23% of BO gross

FF films
$13M of $330M = 3.93% of BO gross

Spider-man films
$62M of $1.61B = 3.85% of BO gross

In 2012, Disney/Marvel waived its ownership interest in the Sony Spider-man films and paid $175M to Sony in exchange for Sony's 25% interest in the Spider-Man LP, which controlled all of Spidey's merchandising.

Update

Here's another old article that provides info on Marvel's take of their licensed features. This one has it at 2 to 10% of the profit, which contradicts "Marvel Comics: The Untold Story", which stated that Avi re-negotiated Marvel's share in some of his early deals into gross participation.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/05/01/8375925/

 

[TalismanRing]

Lol true. Hell, Green Lantern was more successful than this.
Does anyone here listen to the podcast "how did this get made"? It's some of my favorite comedians talking about awful movies and trying to make sense of them. I'd love an episode where they tear this one apart.

Green Lantern lost even more money though because it's budget was $200m and it's marketing budget (usual for WB) was huge making it's total cost a reported $300m+. WB lost around $200m on it.

Regarding Jackman, there's no doubt he's the most popular and lucrative of the X-Men and yet his solo movies will make less than Ant-Man. WW his first movie also made less than Thor and about the same as TFA and the second movie took a drop domestically because of backlash to the first.

Worldwide, Ant-Man unadjusted should wind up making more than every super hero movie made by Fox that isn't DOFP. It will be interesting to see if a revitalized X-Men can give a lift to it's upcoming solo titles.

 

[TalismanRing]

Update

Here's another old article that provides info on Marvel's take of their licensed features. This one has it at 2 to 10% of the profit, which contradicts "Marvel Comics: The Untold Story", which stated that Avi re-negotiated Marvel's share in some of his early deals into gross participation.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/05/01/8375925/

The article also has the Spider-Man estimates share at $75m instead of $62

It states here also that Arad re-negotiated based on box office not profit. And yep, the DVD share was paltry especially since at that time studios were making more in profit on DVDs than in the theaters.

As the hits kept coming, Arad was able to renegotiate some old licensing deals and extract sweeter terms on new ones, but he and Marvel still chafed under the lopsided financial arrangements. It was bad enough that Arad was able to bump licensing fees up to a maximum of only about 10 percent of box office receipts. But studios really cleaned up on ever-increasing sales of DVDs, which now account for more than half of the total profit on a film.


Marvel's share of DVD sales was minuscule - less than a percentage point in most cases. "That was the real impetus" for figuring out a way to dramatically increase the company's take from its characters, says former Marvel Entertainment CEO Allen Lipson. "We were getting such a small share of the DVD revenues. How do you get more?"

 

[Tymminator]

The article also has the Spider-Man estimates share at $75m instead of $62

It states here also that Arad re-negotiated based on box office not profit. And yep, the DVD share was paltry especially since at that time studios were making more in profit on DVDs than in the theaters.

Possibly 10%???

Heh, this just keeps getting better.

 

[InCali]

FF ratchets up the box office take on Tuesday. Up over $1500.00 nationwide to a stunning $34K+!!! Those hourly hotel...I mean....theater rates are kicking in.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

FF ratchets up the box office take on Tuesday. Up over $1500.00 nationwide to a stunning $34K+!!! Those hourly hotel...I mean....theater rates are kicking in.

So if you saw it Tuesday, you were in a very exclusive club of about 150 people. I wonder if any two of those people happened to be in the same theater at the same showing? Unless they went together, it seems like the odds of running into another person at an FF screening would be slim.

 

[Quasar]

You'd have a better chance at spotting Big Foot.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

​

You'd have a better chance at spotting Big Foot.

Looks like I read that number wrong. I was thinking it only made $1500, but now I see that was an increase. Still, only about 3400 people saw it Tuesday which means roughly 68 people per state saw it.

 

[Tymminator]

​

Looks like I read that number wrong. I was thinking it only made $1500, but now I see that was an increase. Still, only about 3400 people saw it Tuesday which means roughly 68 people per state saw it.

Isn't it less than that as that number also includes Canada?

 

[Eddie]

I'd like to think the Canadians had the good sense to find anything else to do instead.

 

[Spiderine]

I miss all the FFINO defenders. Its been quite dull around here lately.

 

[Infinight888]

I miss all the FFINO defenders. Its been quite dull around here lately.

I could make a troll account if you want...

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I miss all the FFINO defenders. Its been quite dull around here lately.

I was just thinking the other day: "I wonder if those people who vowed to see it numerous times to make up for us 'haters' who wouldn't see it at all sat through this turd for several showings to make good on their pledge."

 

[Dark Raven]

I was just thinking the other day: "I wonder if those people who vowed to see it numerous times to make up for us 'haters' who wouldn't see it at all sat through this turd for several showings to make good on their pledge."

Only ten more viewings now... but it's so hard to even get through this first time round... must... keep... at... it... though.... must learn to love this movie.

 

[Lilbaz]

I miss all the FFINO defenders. Its been quite dull around here lately.

They just wanted a good film and wanted to see it before slamming it. Which you can hardly blame them for.

I wanted it to fail just so that it might go back to Marvel. Hopefully it does.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Only ten more viewings now... but it's so hard to even get through this first time round... must... keep... at... it... though.... must learn to love this movie.

 

[InCali]

I'd like to think the Canadians had the good sense to find anything else to do instead.

Keep on thinking. Anytime you get large populations of people, there are always outliers (in this case aka idiots).

Seriously, I wouldn't blame someone for going to see this movie (I haven't). From what I can gather, seeing it multiple times, however, might qualify you for public assistance.

 

[Quasar]

I hear it's a pretty decent cure for insomnia.

 

[starscream22]

I miss all the FFINO defenders. Its been quite dull around here lately.

****WasRight throws the occasional stone in other threads. But even then you can't help but feel a little bad for him.

I think he took the reality check badly.

 

[starscream22]

Keep on thinking. Anytime you get large populations of people, there are always outliers (in this case aka idiots).

Seriously, I wouldn't blame someone for going to see this movie (I haven't). From what I can gather, seeing it multiple times, however, might qualify you for public assistance.

Does ObamaCare cover Mental Health?

 

[Quasar]

You kind of have to love their logic. Don't badmouth a movie before you see it, then after you see it and it's in fact terrible, leave the forum and never talk about it again. So... you never ever talk about a movie being bad???

 

[InCali]

Does ObamaCare cover Mental Health?

Not if it's as serious as wanting to see FF multiple times. Cost overruns and all that......

 

[starscream22]

You kind of have to love their logic. Don't badmouth a movie before you see it, then after you see it and it's in fact terrible, leave the forum and never talk about it again. So... you never ever talk about a movie being bad???

They're all bunkered up in the X-men forums trying to regroup and lick they wounds...

One of them called us Piranhas from the 4stic section who smelled blood in the water for peaking in the Gambit forum.

I say the Piranhas are the ones currently making the F4 films.

 

[Erzengel]

I would think scavengers would be a more apt description of the people involved with FF.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

You kind of have to love their logic. Don't badmouth a movie before you see it, then after you see it and it's in fact terrible, leave the forum and never talk about it again. So... you never ever talk about a movie being bad???

Not Fox films. It's heretical.