Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[dark_b]

so is GL still an underperformer or a normal bomb?

 

[sethypants]

I don't think GL would be a bomb just underperform, box office mojo didn't factor in the 2nd week sales of many foreign countries, plus, there are many other countries which GL haven't aired yet. I'm prediting a close to $300,000 sales

 

[Gamma Burst]

It's a bomb.

 

[Silver Surfer]

It won't even get close to 300, it will top off domestically at 135 mil and around 120 mil overseas. No way it gets close to 300, no way.

 

[Mysteryman]

I think a gang of robots is getting in the way right now.

 

[merced]

I don't think GL would be a bomb just underperform, box office mojo didn't factor in the 2nd week sales of many foreign countries, plus, there are many other countries which GL haven't aired yet. I'm prediting a close to $300,000 sales

I don't se it making 300 million WW.

Box Office Guru is predicting 120 - 125 million domestic. The foreign numbers so far are so, so. Meaning it likely won't make muchmore overseas. I'm guessing then 150 million overseas.

My guess is it will end up with a total WW box of 275 million.

 

[KalMart]

It's a bomb.

Or a dud?

 

[merced]

A comic retailer friend wrote this:


Green Lantern was inaccessible to the non-comic audience and that’s why it’s not doing well. There was too much information presented too quickly on who the Corps and the enemy were, couple with the fact that the enemy was a non-human entity that had a 2 hour build up and a 7 minute tear down. Joe Average can’t relate or understand that the way we can.

Thor had empathy and romance. A father/son, passing of the torch legacy story is something men can relate to and the romance angle, big, confused beefcake shows up out of nowhere and is grounded through the compassion of a woman, is something women can relate to. Thor did well because it was a good movie told well, not because of a lack of competition. Green Lantern was an okay movie told poorly and had no competition in it’s opening weekend and fared worse than X-Men First Class did in it’s opening frame.

A lot has to do with marketing as well. GL’s marketing was unclear and lacking (esp the romance angle, that should have been played up WAY more to attract more women). Thor and X-Men’s marketing was far better and as such, brought in a wider audience.

The GL sequel is already a go and it will do better as it will be a man-against-a-man and not a cloud and will be more easily understood than the first movie.

I simply don't believe a sequel is a go.

IMO WB won't admit that a sequel is/may not happen until after the DVD release/run. That would hurt sales. It's what they did with SR - state a sequel was in the works a few weeks before the DVD release then in March the following year WB hinted there might not be a sequel. Though it was never officially announced. It's how studios oftern handle these things.

I think GL's poor performance has put all solo comic franchise efforts (Flash, WW and others) on hold for the immediate future. I think it's likely WB has no comic film in 2013.

2014? JL maybe, can they get the Batman reboot up by then or will that be 2015?

Right now all WB has looking past 2012 is the Batman film franchise. The question being how to leverage it to introduce other charactes.

 

[chiefchirpa]

I don't se it making 300 million WW.

Box Office Guru is predicting 120 - 125 million domestic. The foreign numbers so far are so, so. Meaning it likely won't make muchmore overseas. I'm guessing then 150 million overseas.

My guess is it will end up with a total WW box of 275 million.

Don't see why WW will be accepting mediocre movies readily when some developed countries have locally/regionally/culturally produced summer movies. Check on the list of movies in France, Germany, UK, South Korea, Japan, etc.

Sub 100 million overseas + 130 million domestic = 230 million max. I may be a bit generous on it.

 

[Lighthouse]

It's a bomb. Granted, it's more of a soft bomb, but it's doing just way too bad to be considered an underperformer.

 

[merced]

Wednesday's numbers 1,212,252 for a grand total so far of 94,422,253.

It should hit 100 million on Saturday.

 

[DaveMoral]

I think a gang of robots is getting in the way right now.

Manhunters?

 

[merced]

So do you think Marvel/Disney purposely announced Thor 2's release date (July 26 2013) at this time to dig it in to WB/DC?

Let's see - that means Marvel has 2 comic book films set for 2013 and will likely have a 3rd - introducing a new character. Wolverine 2 may slip to 2013 also so Marvel could have 4 releases that year.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Nah... they wouldn't be that petty.

Thor deserved a sequel, they are just rightly letting people know its happening.

Still only Raimi and Nolan that stuck it out with their superhero franchises though.

 

[Raiden]

So do you think Marvel/Disney purposely announced Thor 2's release date (July 26 2013) at this time to dig it in to WB/DC?

Let's see - that means Marvel has 2 comic book films set for 2013 and will likely have a 3rd - introducing a new character. Wolverine 2 may slip to 2013 also so Marvel could have 4 releases that year.

What is the other Marvel movie announced for 2013 besides Thor 2? Btw, I don't think it is a dig at all; Marvel just wanted to secure that opening weekend, that's why they made the announcement as early as they did.

 

[merced]

What is the other Marvel movie announced for 2013 besides Thor 2? Btw, I don't think it is a dig at all; Marvel just wanted to secure that opening weekend, that's why they made the announcement as early as they did.

Iron Man 2 and Wolverine 2.

A 4th film is rumored - supposedly launching one of their other franchise characters.

If Cap is a hit maybe it too? Marvel is waiting just 2 years on Thor.

 

[chiefchirpa]

What is the other Marvel movie announced for 2013 besides Thor 2? Btw, I don't think it is a dig at all; Marvel just wanted to secure that opening weekend, that's why they made the announcement as early as they did.

Shellhead 2

Fox probably want to launch Deadpool too if RR is available.

 

[Showtime]

The reason you might call it a bomb is because of it's budget. If it had a tighter budget it wouldn't be a bomb, however this movie is going to disappear now that Transformers is dropping.

 

[HighFivingMF]

So do you think Marvel/Disney purposely announced Thor 2's release date (July 26 2013) at this time to dig it in to WB/DC?

No.

 

[jmc]

So do you think Marvel/Disney purposely announced Thor 2's release date (July 26 2013) at this time to dig it in to WB/DC?

Let's see - that means Marvel has 2 comic book films set for 2013 and will likely have a 3rd - introducing a new character. Wolverine 2 may slip to 2013 also so Marvel could have 4 releases that year.

If the superhero genre fades away Marvel's over saturation is going to be a big reason for it.

 

[chiefchirpa]

If the superhero genre fades away Marvel's over saturation is going to be a big reason for it.

At least they would have it good for some time. Sucks for DC who might not get better part of the cake.

 

[Deaths Head II]

Marvel's over saturation is what helped get the modern super hero genre started so if they kill it they only kill what they created.

 

[Raiden]

If the superhero genre fades away Marvel's over saturation is going to be a big reason for it.

Better than WB/DC's indecision over releasing superhero movies during the height of this genre's popularity except for Batman movies. Marvel makes the right decision to strike while the iron is hot. By the time WB finally do something about it, GA would already have their fill and who knows what will happen next.

 

[jmc]

The iron's been cooling since 2008, god help them when the superhero craze wears out, they've got nothing else to fall back on.

 

[Raiden]

The iron's been cooling since 2008, god help them when the superhero craze wears out, they've got nothing else to fall back on.

With Amazing Spider-man, The Dark Knight Rises, Man of Steel, and the Avengers all coming in 2012, I think you're too quick to write off the superhero genre. I think next year will be a great year for superhero movies. And even if one day the craze has died down, Marvel is now part of Disney so they'll have something else to do, just like DC does with WB.