Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[dnno1]

It seems that before the movie came out, you argued that GL had plenty of "brand awareness", saying things like...

"He was also part of the Super Friends, which is still the longest continuous running animated TV superhero franchise in history (about 10 seasons). Episodes from that franchise still air from time to time on Boomerang, so there should be a good number of folks who know about the character. He his also mentioned in the song "Sunshine Superman" by Donovan ("Superman or Green Lantern ain't got nothing one me..."). Green Lantern should be know by a folks of all ages. I think that when people say that he is not it is a farce."

So now, after the fact, you feel differently?

Although I did say that there was a known market for Green Lantern, I argued way back when that there was not enough comic book fans to help pay for the movie and that they needed to make and sell it like a Star Wars or Star Trek to lure in fans from those markets (that's the known market). They didn't do enough of that and wound up making a great film for the fanboys.

 

[chiefchirpa]

To say that Green Lantern should be known by folks of all ages is just naive.

Green Lantern, believe it or not, outside comic book fanboys is an unknown.

Try the girlfriend test.

Just ask your girlfriend if she knows the following:

- Superman? Yes.
- Batman? Yes.
- Wonder Woman? Yes.
- Spider-Man? Yes.
- Hulk? Yes.
- Captain America? Yes.
- Iron Man? Yes (albeit recently only).
- Flash? Yes (surprisingly).
- Wolverine? No, but she knows the X-Men.
- Thor? No, but she knows of the greek character.
- Green Lantern? Huh, a green what!?

Even some of my friends / co-workers who don't read comic books actually think the name alone of Green Lantern sounds lame. "Why the hell would a super hero be called Green Lantern?" - I've read people on twitter say that.

Sure, but Iron Man was in the same boat called almost anonymous before the 1st movie. So does Thor.

 

[dnno1]

Sure, but Iron Man was in the same boat called almost anonymous before the 1st movie. So does Thor.

Iron Man still had the awareness. There is even a familiar Heavy Metal song that bares his name that people recognize. Thor, is a god from Norse mythology, that a lot of people know something of.

 

[chiefchirpa]

Iron Man still had the awareness. There is even a familiar Heavy Metal song that bares his name that people recognize. Thor, is a god from Norse mythology, that a lot of people know something of.

- The song had nothing to do with the character, and not many people knows that metal song because well it's not pop.
- Thor the myth and characters are different. Except for the nerds, not many people are even familiar with Thor the myth.

Face it Green Lantern, Iron Man, and Thor are all in the same boat. Iron Man has the more mainstream ready concept because it's about tech just like people clamoring on the next IPhone. Green Lantern is really about space aliens with imaginary power, and Thor is about alien viking. They're harder concept to digest, but with a good script they're doable.

 

[Stikmann]

Although I did say that there was a known market for Green Lantern, I argued way back when that there was not enough comic book fans to help pay for the movie and that they needed to make and sell it like a Star Wars or Star Trek to lure in fans from those markets (that's the known market). They didn't do enough of that and wound up making a great film for the fanboys.

You appeared to be saying that GL had plenty of awareness out there in general. To deny this was a farce. Now you seem to be denying it yourself.

 

[Jordanstine]

Sure, but Iron Man was in the same boat called almost anonymous before the 1st movie. So does Thor.

I agree.

But Marvel sure struck a big home run with Iron Man since he's now grown into one of the top mainstream superheroes of the decade.

Green Lantern right now is almost stuck on the Ghost Rider, Daredevil level (probably just a tad bit higher), where mainstream audiences who have heard of him because of the movie now, will likely forget about him 2-3 years down the road.

The funny thing is, most mainstream audiences "know of" or heard of Flash, and to an extent, even Aquaman, more so than they've even heard of Green Lantern.

 

[Dark Knight]

To be fair though GL's reviews probably lessened the opening box office. I can not for the life of me imagine the reviews for CA (or the film for that matter) being as bad as GL so it's hard to see that being a factor in it's opening box office, Potter is the biggest factor for CA. I can seriously see Potter coming out ahead of CA in it's opening week, even if Potter drops like 60% the second week it'll still be making $50-60 million which is a big chunk of coin.

It'll be ineteresting to see if GL can make it to the $200 million mark when it is released everywhere internationally in August.

 

[chiefchirpa]

I agree.

But Marvel sure struck a big home run with Iron Man since he's now grown into one of the top mainstream superheroes of the decade.

Green Lantern right now is almost stuck on the Ghost Rider, Daredevil level (probably just a tad bit higher), where mainstream audiences who have heard of him because of the movie now, will likely forget about him 2-3 years down the road.

Still below:
Fantastic Four (thanks to 2 films and Jessica Alba)
Blade

The funny thing is, most mainstream audiences "know of" or heard of Flash, and to an extent, even Aquaman, more so than they've even heard of Green Lantern.

Flash has the speed power, Aquaman is the undersea guy. Green Lantern is so distant as the space guy.

 

[merced]

Iron Man wasn't known by anyone until that movie came out and now look it, everybody and their mom knows Iron Man. Why? because the movie was good and entertaining. Green Lantern eh not so much.

Look at Thor. Basically unknown.

Yet not only did it way, way outperform GL at the BO, it way outperformed SR and right now is a stronger film franchise than Superman - let alone GL.

Something bigger is going on that just name identity.

Superman supposedly is far better known than is Thor - maybe not anymore.

How does a 2nd string Marvel character pull in almost 450 million WW on a film budget of 150 mllion plus and Superman pulled in just 397 WW on a budget of 225 million?

Again, it's not just GL. Aside from Batman, DC characters don't seem to translate well to film in a way that appeals to the GA.

 

[Dark Knight]

You appeared to be saying that GL had plenty of awareness out there in general. To deny this was a farce. Now you seem to be denying it yourself.

What happened to GL is what happens when you have TV guys like Berlanti and his TV writers working on a big time superhero film on the big screen and they let the budget go overboard. Campbell and the cast could only do so much.

WB's should have took their time on it and I knew they should have just released the film in November or December 2011, instead of pushing it out against HEAVY competition this summer. It may have helped a little when it came to editing, pacing and improving effects and it may have helped a bit with domestic box office.

It doesn't matter really to WB's, they made a crap load of money off of Hangover 2 (it is considered a franchise to them now) and of course they will make a killing off of the final Potter film and they will most likely make a profit on Horrible Bosses. They will also make a killing off of Sherlock Holmes 2 (another franchise) and the final Nolan Bat film TDKRises.

Losing some money or breaking even on GL is small peanuts when it comes to the big picture for them. The only ones that will wind up being hurt by GL is the fans and whether or not WB's decides to push forward with a sequel, which needs better writers and a director with vision and passion for telling an EPIC Sci Fi/Fantasy story with drama, emotion and good action. Budget discipline needs to be practiced as well of course.

If there is no sequel, then we probably won't be seeing Green Lantern onscreen again until the inevitable Justice League film.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Jordanstein makes a good comment that I have been trying to explain (unsuccessfully) to DC fans for quite some time now.

'Green...Lantern' just sounds ridiculously silly. It sounds silly. He looks silly with the mask. And the mythos is silly. The whole colour coded emotion powers with magic space rings and blue big-headed midget protectors of the universe is UNBELIEVABLY silly to non-comicbook people, and even to people into comicbooks but not into DC/GL.

Sorry to GL fans and I am truly not trying to troll here but this movie NEVER had a chance. It was destined to fail. It had great potential to be an epic movie for GL fans. But it never had a chance of being anything but silly, cheesy, nonsense to the majority of the GA. No amount of marketing could have helped. Should they have spent more than $175 million dollars???

 

[dnno1]

You appeared to be saying that GL had plenty of awareness out there in general. To deny this was a farce. Now you seem to be denying it yourself.

I did not deny that. I never said that he had the awareness of a Superman or a Batman, though, and even then, there still aren't enough of those folks to pay for a $200 million budgeted film. There are a good number of people who are aware of the name and the logo, but certainly there is not enough nor ever was to bring in the types of dollars that a Batman could bring in. If you look back at the history of my posts you will see that I have always said that if they had sold it like a Star Wars (and that meant adapting the property to suit space based SciFy fans) the would have has a larger audience to draw from.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Iron Man still had the awareness. There is even a familiar Heavy Metal song that bares his name that people recognize. Thor, is a god from Norse mythology, that a lot of people know something of.

The song "Iron Man" is about steel mill workers. Not superheroes. There is no resemblance to Iron Man in it whatsoever.

 

[Dark Knight]

Jordanstein makes a good comment that I have been trying to explain (unsuccessfully) to DC fans for quite some time now.

'Green...Lantern' just sounds ridiculously silly. It sounds silly. He looks silly with the mask. And the mythos is silly. The whole colour coded emotion powers with magic space rings and blue big-headed midget protectors of the universe is UNBELIEVABLY silly to non-comicbook people, and even to people into comicbooks but not into DC/GL.

Sorry to GL fans and I am truly not trying to troll here but this movie NEVER had a chance. It was destined to fail. It had great potential to be an epic movie for GL fans. But it never had a chance of being anything but silly, cheesy, nonsense to the majority of the GA. No amount of marketing could have helped. Should they have spent more than $175 million dollars???

Yeah, like Thor, Iron Man and XMen are not silly cheesy concepts huh?

GL's problem was the execution. More time was needed to execute it properly for the big screen with a better writers.

 

[Chewy]

I did not deny that. I never said that he had the awareness of a Superman or a Batman, though, and even then, there still aren't enough of those folks to pay for a $200 million budgeted film. There are a good number of people who are aware of the name and the logo, but certainly there is not enough nor ever was to bring in the types of dollars that a Batman could bring in. If you look back at the history of my posts you will see that I have always said that if they had sold it like a Star Wars (and that meant adapting the property to suit space based SciFy fans) the would have has a larger audience to draw from.

Oh you

BTW: this is looking like it might make Alice in Wonderland Numbers.

TDK wasn't released in 3D, which AIW and GL are. You will have to figure in the BO boost from that as well.

 

[dnno1]

- The song had nothing to do with the character, and not many people knows that metal song because well it's not pop.
- Thor the myth and characters are different. Except for the nerds, not many people are even familiar with Thor the myth.

Face it Green Lantern, Iron Man, and Thor are all in the same boat. Iron Man has the more mainstream ready concept because it's about tech just like people clamoring on the next IPhone. Green Lantern is really about space aliens with imaginary power, and Thor is about alien viking. They're harder concept to digest, but with a good script they're doable.

Oh, please. Out of the thousands of songs that were written and released over the decades, Ozzy Osbourne's is one of Rolling Stone's 500 Greatest Songs of all time. "Iron Man" won a Grammy for best Performance in 2000, 30 years after the song was released. The song was even featured in the 2005 version of "Guitar Hero".

 

[Spider-Fan]

Oh, please. Out of the thousands of songs that were written and released over the decades, Ozzy Osbourne's is one of Rolling Stone's 500 Greatest Songs of all time. "Iron Man" won a Grammy for best Performance in 2000, 30 years after the song was released. The song was even featured in the 2005 version of "Guitar Hero".

And...HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH IRON MAN!!!

The song doesn't make Iron Man a more popular character going into his movie. If the song was about him, maybe it would. But, it doesn't. Not at all. This is a weak argument in trying to argue why Iron Man made money and GL didn't. Having the same name as a song about steel mill workers does NOT equal correlation.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Se what I mean. You DC guys will never be able to accept it. It's beyond amazing that you cannot see that.

All superheroes have degree of sillines in them which is why the majority of people aren't gobling up comicbooks, but all those other are much, much, much, less silly than GL.

IRON MAN: Advanced tech in what is a compact mech-suit than grants flight, protection, enhanced strength, etc.

X-MEN: genetic mutations that provide enhanced physical abilities.

THOR: a (normal looking) powerful extra-dimensionl/terrestrial race with a basis in actual mythology.



GL: colour coded emotion powers.....


Anyway I've realised that pointless to get many DC people to see reason. Good luck with the reboot in 5+ years when it will completely fail again.

 

[dnno1]

Oh you

Yes, I said that it look like the film was going to make a Alice in Wonderland number, but that was under the presumption that this was actually like "Star Wars" (a film that never really had brand awareness, but turned out to be a hit). The fact of the matter is that they didn't do that, but instead made a film that was similar to Iron Man (and Superman and Sider-Man), which was a turn off. That doesn't change the fact that I said in the past that there were never enough Green Lantern fans to support this film.

 

[dnno1]

And...HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH IRON MAN!!!

The song doesn't make Iron Man a more popular character going into his movie. If the song was about him, maybe it would. But, it doesn't. Not at all. This is a weak argument in trying to argue why Iron Man made money and GL didn't. Having the same name as a song about steel mill workers does NOT equal correlation.

Outside of the name itself. And people easily associated the name with the character. Why else did they feature the song in the film?

 

[Spider-Fan]

Se what I mean. You DC guys will never be able to accept it. It's beyond amazing that you cannot see that.

All superheroes have degree of sillines in them which is why the majority of people aren't gobling up comicbooks, but all those other are much, much, much, less silly than GL.

IRON MAN: Advanced tech in what is a compact mech-suit than grants flight, protection, enhanced strength, etc.

X-MEN: genetic mutations that provide enhanced physical abilities.

THOR: a (normal looking) powerful extra-dimensionl/terrestrial race with a basis in actual mythology.



GL: colour coded emotion powers.....


Anyway I've realised that pointless to get many DC people to see reason. Good luck with the reboot in 5+ years when it will completely fail again.

Let's please not make this a DC vs Marvel whine fest, shall we? Argue actual points, but please don't call out "DC guys" and such. That is not respectful in the least.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Outside of the name itself. And people easily associated the name with the character. Why else did they feature the song in the film?

That means nothing. The song got used in the credits for the movie. They didn't sell the movie on the song. What you're trying to say is people associate it with Iron Man, and they don't. Outside of the name of the song, they bare no similarity. Heck, the Iron Man movie didn't even use any of the lyrics IN the movie. Just the intrumental portions. That's not an association with the character. By this logic, Sound of Silence makes people think of Watchmen, when it dsoesn't. Despite Watchmen used it.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Se what I mean. You DC guys will never be able to accept it. It's beyond amazing that you cannot see that.

Ah DC guy here... and I KNOW this movie failed in just about every way.

Don't tar us all with the same brush...

 

[Stikmann]

Yes, I said that it look like the film was going to make a Alice in Wonderland number, but that was under the presumption that this was actually like "Star Wars" (a film that never really had brand awareness, but turned out to be a hit). The fact of the matter is that they didn't do that, but instead made a film that was similar to Iron Man (and Superman and Sider-Man), which was a turn off. That doesn't change the fact that I said in the past that there were never enough Green Lantern fans to support this film.

Actually, you said things like...

My prediction is $270 million domestic. I honestly believe that 34 million people here in America would want to see Green Lantern.

Nothing about GL fans there.

 

[dnno1]

That means nothing. The song got used in the credits for the movie. They didn't sell the movie on the song. What you're trying to say is people associate it with Iron Man, and they don't. Outside of the name of the song, they bare no similarity. Heck, the Iron Man movie didn't even use any of the lyrics IN the movie. Just the intrumental portions. That's not an association with the character. By this logic, Sound of Silence makes people think of Watchmen, when it dsoesn't. Despite Watchmen used it.

And was in trailers before the release of the film. Face it. That song helped sell the movie.