Its official: W.B. waited too long

[jmc]

Haven't seen it. Probably won't. Not interested.

Try broadening your horizons, Zodiac may surprise you.

 

[Star]

one of my friends, who is IN film studies and also is an extreme movie snob, really liked it... i haven't seen it yet, but i'm definitely going to give it a chance

 

[shieldshero]

Stop thinking like fanboys; it was that thinking that "Superman can beat Pirates; Its SUPERMAN" that got it killed; thats not how it worked.

DA VINCI CODE made TWICE as much Superman Returns and Batman Begins did, putting JL against the next film in the series is SUICIDE.

Superman Returns 'got killed' because at the end of the day it wasn't a particularly good movie and word of mouth spread fast, so lots of people didn't bother going to see it. . . it's just some fanboys who blame pirates for supes poor performance, which is making excuses for a movie that essentially killed itself. . . If a movie is really good then it should generate enough audience figures regardless of what else is out at the same time, it's not like people are only aloud to go to the cinema once a month. . .

 

[mclay18]

As much as I tend to disagree with buggs on some issues, I'm going to side with him on this issue. A&D hasn't completed casting or had the script polished yet, while JL has a complete script (and casting as far as anyone's guess is still going on or complete).

And I think the July 3, 2009 release will benefit Justice League because by then the majority of the people will have already seen Transformers 2. Case in point: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix was released a week after Transformers came out this summer and it did incredibly well for itself -- it's the second-highest grossing Potter movie domestically. It didn't make near the amount of $319 million that Transformers made, but it was a definite success regardless ($291.8 million). If JL can do that kind of business on the second weekend of TF-2, then the July 3 date is PERFECT.

 

[Excel]

You're assuming that Angels and Demons is guarunteed to make $40 mil and seemingly forgetting that movies are in theatres for more than one weekend. Honestly, I just don't buy that A&D will this huge blockbuster just because it's somewhat related to the Da Vinci Code.

And you act like $75 mil isn't a good opening, for god's sake. Really, I think it's the A&D camp that should be worried here, not us.

Jl is a comic book movie; it wont have good legs unless its Batman Begins good-which it wont be as we know it is being transformer-ized.

If it opened to 75 million it will top out around 200 million; for 75 million i what Superman Returns would have gotten opening weekend had it oene don a Friday; and how is that films box office percieved?

Superman Returns 'got killed' because at the end of the day it wasn't a particularly good movie and word of mouth spread fast, so lots of people didn't bother going to see it. . . it's just some fanboys who blame pirates for supes poor performance, which is making excuses for a movie that essentially killed itself. . . If a movie is really good then it should generate enough audience figures regardless of what else is out at the same time, it's not like people are only aloud to go to the cinema once a month. . .

No it didn't; Pirates detroyed it. Use your head; if Pirates isnt in supermans 2nd weekend making 135 million bucks againstthe exact same demo, it's drop is a lot less then 58%; it would have been below 50%; close to Batman Begins at 45%. Wor dof mouth among the film was good; not great; but good. Theres a group of fans living in fantasy world who for some reaosn think the film was poorly recieved. Being good instead of great doesnt make it bad. Fantastic Four, Ghost Rider, Daredevil-those had bad word of mouth. Do not try and put Superman Returns in the same league as those films. At the same, Batman begins, Spiderman 1 and 2; those films had great word of mouth. Dont try and out Superman Returns with em either.

But that aint the subject; JL is a comic book movie; its gonna drop 45% minimum its 2nd weekend NO MATTER WHAT; it dont matter how entertaining it is, how great its word of mouth, or if the weekend is empty; th lack of huge fanboy rush in its 2nd weekend makes it drop significantly. Now that 45% is more than likely gonna be 50% as only 3 films (Begins, Spidey and Spidey 2) have dropped less. Spidey 1 was in 2002-7 years ago and the box office more frontloaded/opening weekend emphasized these days; and Begins and Spidey 2 opened on a Wednesday. That said; we can already tell with its appearently dumbed-down script and youth casting; Justice League isnt being made to be a critical darling like those were; its being made as a popcorn film; easy to advertise. Those films always drop big-ALWAYS.

Now think-that 45-50%+ drop can be from 75 million; or it can be from 100 million. Thats how it works; I know about the box office a lot and want this movie to be a huge hit; but if W.B. ;puts in a position to fail from the get go like they did with superman and Batman Begins...Ill say something. TDK is being handled excellently though.

And I think the July 3, 2009 release will benefit Justice League because by then the majority of the people will have already seen Transformers 2. Case in point: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix was released a week after Transformers came out this summer and it did incredibly well for itself -- it's the second-highest grossing Potter movie domestically. It didn't make near the amount of $319 million that Transformers made, but it was a definite success regardless ($291.8 million). If JL can do that kind of business on the second weekend of TF-2, then the July 3 date is PERFECT.

Dont compare Superheros to Harry Potter. JL wouldnt get close to that kind of business; July 3rd is beyond horrible. You'd have the following problems

-lack of buzz; as it would split with Trasformers 2
-challenging marketing-youd have to fight for airtime and attention from Transformers 2
-general lack of event film film due to competition-something Batman Begins and Superman Returns suffered from; though the Dark Knight will not.

The weekend on June 26th will have Transfoemrs opening weekend around 120 million. Word of mouth or not, it will drop about 55-60%. A 55% drop would give it 54 million in its 2nd weekend.

You think opening Justice League against a film-with the exact same audiences mind you-thats making 50 million or more that weekend is "perfect"...

No, thats ******ed. Thats worst casse scenario; JL would barely top 70 million against such competition and would then drop.

 

[mclay18]

Excel, A&D and TF-2 haven't even started shooting (and neither has JL). With the strike still going on (but about to re-enter negotiations), it could still affect the futures of TF-2 and A&D and push their release dates back further, which will give JL the gap it needs.

And JL can get a head-start on marketing, just do a quick teaser trailer and release it towards the end of shooting on JL (or after it's complete) and start the promotion a year early and then release lengtheir trailers with completed visual effects shots. It worked for Spider-Man 3.

And the box office is very unpredictable, so you could be right on the money or way off. Anything's possible.

 

[shieldshero]

Theres a group of fans living in fantasy world who for some reaosn think the film was poorly recieved. Being good instead of great doesnt make it bad.

A group of fans?. . . try the majority of non-superman fans! well received? good? Is this why Warner Bros are in such a hurry to deliver a JLA movie instead of a Returns sequel? I think certain fans are in denial about how well the movie did, as opposed to the major flop it was financially and creatively. . . but anyway, back to Justice league. . .

 

[phoenixflight]

Does the movie have to come out in the Summer only? What about Thanksgiving weekend 2009...that would be a great time besides the summer! The summers have become to over saturated with 'blockbuster' films.

 

[Excel]

A group of fans?. . . try the majority of non-superman fans! well received? good? Is this why Warner Bros are in such a hurry to deliver a JLA movie instead of a Returns sequel? I think certain fans are in denial about how well the movie did, as opposed to the major flop it was financially and creatively. . . but anyway, back to Justice league. . .

Haha; nobodys in denial of how it did; their in denial of why it dissappointed.

"The Majority of non superman fans"...geez, rotten tomtoes, imdb; really supprt........do you have evidence to suport that other than a few fans *****ing about it on this site? Its box office legs were good; so dont try that card.

"Is this why Warner Bros are in such a hurry to deliver a JLA movie instead of a Returns sequel?"

There is no "instead"; they are working on developing both but Superman director is budy so it aint happening right now

so many fans dont live in reality; its pathetic.

 

[mclay18]

It would be pretty bold on Warner Brothers' part to move Justice League's release date to November 2009. For the most part, superhero films are a summer staple and only a few films (like The Incredibles and Superman: The Movie) were released during the fall/winter season -- but those few were very successful.

On the other hand, November 2009 doesn't have much in the way of competition... yet. The competition is the likes of the stop-motion The Fantastic Mr. Fox (Fox) and A Christmas Carol (Disney) on November 6 and the Dreamworks's CGI How to Train Your Dragon on November 20. Since HP 7 won't be released until 2010, a JL film would be perfect to fill the spot for November 13, 2009. Plus, it would give the studio more post-production time for editing, perfecting the CGI sequences and finishing the score.

 

[Excel]

I'd like a holiday release date at this point; though not November.

December 15th would make it the event film of the holiday for sure; virtually gaurenteeing 250 million.

 

[OobeDoobBenubi]

Something like Justice League which will be pure pop corn is definitely a holiday thing.

 

[shieldshero]

Haha; nobodys in denial of how it did; their in denial of why it dissappointed.

"The Majority of non superman fans"...geez, rotten tomtoes, imdb; really supprt........do you have evidence to suport that other than a few fans *****ing about it on this site? Its box office legs were good; so dont try that card.

"Is this why Warner Bros are in such a hurry to deliver a JLA movie instead of a Returns sequel?"

There is no "instead"; they are working on developing both but Superman director is budy so it aint happening right now

so many fans dont live in reality; its pathetic.

All I know is, if a movie delivers at the box office then the studios are instantly talking sequels regardless of what us comic fans thought about plot holes and casting errors. . . The fact is the majority of the cinema going audience failed to connect with superman returns and whether there was better/more popular movies released at the same time, it had the chance to be good/bad based on it's own merits. . . unfortunately for us, bar a few Singer worshipers, we thought it was bad. . . or at least a fraction of the film it could have/should have been. . .

And if you don’t believe the sequel has been ‘shelved’ then you are the one in denial

 

[mclay18]

I'd like a holiday release date at this point; though not November.

December 15th would make it the event film of the holiday for sure; virtually gaurenteeing 250 million.

Why December 15th? I would think that Justice League could really benefit from a November release -- it worked for The Incredibles. *looks at Box Office Mojo* Oh, I see what you mean. Superman: The Movie did incredibly well when it was released December 1978.

 

[Jake Cassidy]

Try broadening your horizons, Zodiac may surprise you.

I see a lot of different films. This one just doesn't interest me at all.

 

[Sun_Down]

Excel, you do truly believe that anything that comes out of your mouth is fact, don't you? You talk about your box office predictions like they're indisputable facts and then say that WE are not living in reality? Are you really that drunk on your own self-importance and arrogance?

 

[jmc]

SR didn't deliver. Perhaps the character has lost its appeal or maybe WB overestimated the characters selling ability and thought 'Oh, it's Superman, everybody loves Superman'. I'm sure they were expecting Spider Man type numbers hence the massive budget for the film, but it didn't deliver. You can go around pointing fingers all you want blaming the director or other films or what not for its lack of success, in spite of how good some of the reviews were the general public didn't care.

As for JL, I think it's way too early to predict what numbers it will make, hell it still might not get off the ground in the first place, nothing is guaranteed, it could make a truck load of cash, or it could crash and burn, we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[daywalker2007]

there is more chance of adam west putting on a batman costume with bondage and rubber nipples, than there is of Justice league making any money at the box office.

WB are a laughing stock when it comes to comic book movies.
Can't wait for this campy piece of crap when it comes out.

 

[Jake Cassidy]

^ That's the dumbest thing I've heard all day.

And the funniest.

 

[buggs0268]

Excel, you do truly believe that anything that comes out of your mouth is fact, don't you? You talk about your box office predictions like they're indisputable facts and then say that WE are not living in reality? Are you really that drunk on your own self-importance and arrogance?

Dude this guy is full of it. I have seen him predict a movies opening weekend box office, then when it opened, do way above and beyond or less than what he said, and then go back to the original preidction post (links and entire text saved on the hard drive0 and miraculously his predictions now matched what it really did. He is a hack. Have you seen some of the threads he has created titled "the Excel theorum" and "Excel directs the next Superman" Only the SR fans take this guy seriously anymore as he spouts what they want to hear, but not what is happening in reality. I mean, take a look at this thread as an example.

 

[Excel]

Excel, you do truly believe that anything that comes out of your mouth is fact, don't you? You talk about your box office predictions like they're indisputable facts and then say that WE are not living in reality? Are you really that drunk on your own self-importance and arrogance?

Dude lighten up; I may post drunk on occas but it aint on arrogance. I follow, discuss, and analyse the box office evry day at forums just like this; only instead of superheros; its box office; and have done it for years. And I mena every film; not just super hero films; every film starting in 2005 when I was horrible, tthrough 2006 where I got better, through 2007 where I got every good. I told all yall Transformers would clean house; told all yall Spidey 3 would shatter the opening weekend record. Told all yall Simpsons was going to big. I was off on Fantastic Four 2. I have a pretty good idea of what sells and what doesnt sell, what steps are to make a film work.

I dont think it's fact; but I do consider my opinion slightly more educated that a common superhero fan who nothing about the box office aside from how well the latest comic book adaptions have done.

Dude this guy is full of it. I have seen him predict a movies opening weekend box office, then when it opened, do way above and beyond or less than what he said, and then go back to the original preidction post (links and entire text saved on the hard drive0 and miraculously his predictions now matched what it really did. He is a hack. Have you seen some of the threads he has created titled "the Excel theorum" and "Excel directs the next Superman" Only the SR fans take this guy seriously anymore as he spouts what they want to hear, but not what is happening in reality. I mean, take a look at this thread as an example.

Poor Buggs; how quickly we forget how I got roasted by superman returns fans all June 2006 for telling themit would be lucky to top out at 250 million due to Pirates 2. They all believed they were looking at 300 million+ and I would say "no, pirates 2 i slooking at 50 million opning DAY" to which people like yourself and others said that was impossible; that Superman would crush pirates because "Its SUPERMAN!". They forgot Pirates were more popular in todays world.

Now people are saying Justice League could take Transformer sbecause, "Its justice League!" while forgetting Transformers are more popular n todays world. You dont see how history is repeating itself?

Look buggs; i support JL just as muchas the next guy; I dont care that Mos is canned. I wanted all batman and superman films to clean house; I have no motive for being biased against Justice League

As for my box office predicting skills; ight you can judge.

This weekend; the totals will look like this...

1. Beowulf - 27.3
2. Bee Movie - 13.6
3. Fred Claus - 12.7
4. American Gangster - 12.6
5. Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium - 9.1
6. Dan in Real Life - 4.2
7. Lions for Lambs - 2.8
8. Saw IV - 2.3
9. Love in the Time of Cholera - 1.9
10. The Game Plan - 1.3

I said it here Friday; despite all the hype and promos money could buy; Beowulf wouldnt break 30 million; and it aint.

Next week?

Enchanted will do over 40 million for the 5 day, and look for stellar legs carrying to a total over 100 million. Hitman will be a big dissappointment; it isnt topping 20 million for the 5 day. Mist will do ok for its budget; maybe 16-18 million.

In the coming weeks....look for Golden Compass to roughly 45 million; but its a fanbase so it could top 50 million by a bit. I am Legend is gonna open over 40 million; hell I could see 50. But the film to beta is National Treasure 2; thats going to top 250 million.

You heard it here; any time you discuss my skillz remember this post

 

[UltimateJustin]

Dude lighten up; I may post drunk on occas but it aint on arrogance. I follow, discuss, and analyse the box office evry day at forums just like this; only instead of superheros; its box office; and have done it for years. And I mena every film; not just super hero films; every film starting in 2005 when I was horrible, tthrough 2006 where I got better, through 2007 where I got every good. I told all yall Transformers would clean house; told all yall Spidey 3 would shatter the opening weekend record. Told all yall Simpsons was going to big. I was off on Fantastic Four 2. I have a pretty good idea of what sells and what doesnt sell, what steps are to make a film work.

I dont think it's fact; but I do consider my opinion slightly more educated that a common superhero fan who nothing about the box office aside from how well the latest comic book adaptions have done.





Poor Buggs; how quickly we forget how I got roasted by superman returns fans all June 2006 for telling themit would be lucky to top out at 250 million due to Pirates 2. They all believed they were looking at 300 million+ and I would say "no, pirates 2 i slooking at 50 million opning DAY" to which people like yourself and others said that was impossible; that Superman would crush pirates because "Its SUPERMAN!". They forgot Pirates were more popular in todays world.

Now people are saying Justice League could take Transformer sbecause, "Its justice League!" while forgetting Transformers are more popular n todays world. You dont see how history is repeating itself?

Look buggs; i support JL just as muchas the next guy; I dont care that Mos is canned. I wanted all batman and superman films to clean house; I have no motive for being biased against Justice League

As for my box office predicting skills; ight you can judge.

This weekend; the totals will look like this...

1. Beowulf - 27.3
2. Bee Movie - 13.6
3. Fred Claus - 12.7
4. American Gangster - 12.6
5. Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium - 9.1
6. Dan in Real Life - 4.2
7. Lions for Lambs - 2.8
8. Saw IV - 2.3
9. Love in the Time of Cholera - 1.9
10. The Game Plan - 1.3

I said it here Friday; despite all the hype and promos money could buy; Beowulf wouldnt break 30 million; and it aint.

Next week?

Enchanted will do over 40 million for the 5 day, and look for stellar legs carrying to a total over 100 million. Hitman will be a big dissappointment; it isnt topping 20 million for the 5 day. Mist will do ok for its budget; maybe 16-18 million.

In the coming weeks....look for Golden Compass to roughly 45 million; but its a fanbase so it could top 50 million by a bit. I am Legend is gonna open over 40 million; hell I could see 50. But the film to beta is National Treasure 2; thats going to top 250 million.

You heard it here; any time you discuss my skillz remember this post

I've had 100% accuracy at predicting the B.O. results every week and Justice Leauge will take the summer domestic gold as sure as Love in the Time of Cholera will top this weekend.

 

[Wally West]

I wish people would quit acting like Justice League is just another comic book movie. It's not. It's the SUPER BOWL of comic book movies. It's Batman and Superman together on the big screen for the first time ever. Not to mention Wonder Woman, the Flash, and Aquaman.

Yes there was X-men, which is a super team. But they are nothing in comparison to the general public. Everyone's Grandmother knows Superman and Batman, and while each has had numerous theatrical apearances over the years, they've never been on screen together.

Many things could affect the box office. But the potential is there for this to be huge whether you want to see it or not.

 

[Matt]

Angels & Demons isn't a sequel to Da Vinci Code, FYI. It's just written by the same author.

Isn't it technically a prequel?

 

[Matt]

Dude lighten up; I may post drunk on occas but it aint on arrogance.

In all fairness Excel, you are pretty damn arrogant (But thats why we love you ).