Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - - - - - Part 14

[FilmNerdJamie]

Rumor is it might be a week long return to IMAX.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

Rumor is it might be a week long return to IMAX.

That's what I'm hoping for, as I didn't get to see it in IMAX.

 

[sf2]

I still show it in theaters but its in very few. WB might pull it soon and release it again near Labor Day

1st May?

 

[Man-of-Tomorrow]

September 2nd is Labor Day this year. I certainly hope there is a rerelease. I didn't get to see it in IMAX.

 

[Marvin]

MOS should have been a July release.

 

[JOE]

Should have, would have, could have... Didn't. The BO suffered because of it. Unfortunate.

 

[JKKS085]

so hows does a movie that cost 300mil to make
have to make a billion to break even
explain please???????
cause imo if it takes 300 mil to make
650-725 will make the movie break even or even 800mil
and even Disney said they needed to makea billion to break even

I've never seen anyone saying the movie needed a billion to break even but maybe that's true.
And it's not surprising either. If you take the thumb rule of studios taking in 55% of the domestic grosses and 15% of the overseas grosses after expenses (if don't know why those numbers and want to know, read Epstein), that should give you an accurate idea as to how much a movie needs to make to break even. And just to spare you the pain to make some useless calculations, what studios take in from theater runs usually accounts for less than 20% of the entire revenue a movie generates. So they just don't think in those terms (or not anymore).

And Avengers reported pb is 220 millions, not 300. I know it may be a bit hard to grasp but Man Of Steel didn't cost a lot less all in all (and if you rule by Variety's number Warner spent even more on MoS than Disney did on TA).

On the other hand maybe you should take a look at this piece about MoS numbers:

http://variety.com/2013/film/news/w...-priciest-incarnation-of-superman-1200493334/

Warner Bros. motion pictures group president Jeff Robinov went so far as to predict it (Man Of Steel) will be the studio’s highest performer ever. That would mean the 3D movie, which cost about $225 million to produce and another $150 million to market and release around the globe, would have to top the $1.3 billion cume for “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2″

 

[dalonewolf]

I've never seen anyone saying the movie needed a billion to break even but maybe that's true.
And it's not surprising either. If you take the thumb rule of studios taking in 55% of the domestic grosses and 15% of the overseas grosses after expenses (if don't know why those numbers and want to know, read Epstein), that should give you an accurate idea as to how much a movie needs to make to break even. And just to spare you the pain to make some useless calculations, what studios take in from theater runs usually accounts for less than 20% of the entire revenue a movie generates. So they just don't think in those terms (or not anymore).

And Avengers reported pb is 220 millions, not 300. I know it may be a bit hard to grasp but Man Of Steel didn't cost a lot less all in all (and if you rule by Variety's number Warner spent even more on MoS than Disney did on TA).

On the other hand maybe you should take a look at this piece about MoS numbers:

http://variety.com/2013/film/news/w...-priciest-incarnation-of-superman-1200493334/

so your trying to say mos cost 375 to make and the avengers only cost 300 to make
mos was 300 225 production budget
and 75 promo budget

 

[JKKS085]

I'm no trying to say anything.

What I'm saying though, and you may have noticed that I'm not just throwing ridiculous numbers like you did but instead I'm quoting articles from reputable sources, is that both films cost around the same to make and promote. Unlike what you said a few messages ago.

Now a 75M budget for advertising, would just be ridiculous by today's standards and I don't know where you get that number from. What I suggest is that you do some basic research about how these things work instead of coming up with random numbers that don't make any sense.

 

[manofsteel4life]

Rumor is it might be a week long return to IMAX.

Woohoo!!... So I can see it 2more times now!

 

[ModernClarkKent]

Apparently MOS only made 2.5 million this entire week in the foreign market - YIKES.

Domestic: $287,681,397 44.5% + Foreign: $359,500,000 55.5% = Worldwide: $647,181,397

 

[!Superman!]

dont forget the almost $200 million in product placements MOS got before selling one ticket

 

[113]

Rumor is it might be a week long return to IMAX.

IT WILL???!!!?? Yes!!!!!!!!!


I will be seeing it in IMAX again! Woot woot. I've been pretty bummed out by the movie selection recently. Like Pacific Rim was good but I won't be seeing that again in theaters. I still need to see Wolverine but I'm barely excited for that.

But I'm getting giddy just thinking about watching MoS in IMAX glory all over again! I also want to see Elysium and Fruitvale Station still.

 

[sf2]

Warner Bros. motion pictures group president Jeff Robinov went so far as to predict it (Man Of Steel) will be the studio’s highest performer ever.*That would mean the 3D movie, which cost about $225 million to produce and another $150 million to market and release around the globe, would have to top the $1.3 billion cume for “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2″

Wow. 1.3B!!!??? They really have a super high hope on MOS.
Why didn't they give the PR slot to MOS???
Why didn't they make 2 movies in a row like STM or trilogy like LOTR???

 

[JKKS085]

Why didn't they give the PR slot to MOS???

I think this is precisely where Warner failed big time when eveything else on their end (especially the domestic marketing campaign) was top notch.

I can see why they decided to favor Pacif Rim over Man Of Steel but their lack of faith in character clearly dragged MoS' performance down while PR failed to meet their expectations too.

They put themselves in a situation in wich they can only be dissapointed.

 

[JOE]

MOS making 650M WW is not a disappointment. The movie may have been, but it's BO success is not.

 

[JKKS085]

Strictly speaking of course it's not. But the only question that actually matters is wether or not the movie's number met with the studio's expectations.

And given the more recent developpement with Man of Steel not getting an actual sequel, Robinov going public with 1B+ numbers (while the movie will make around half of his initial prediction at the end of its run) and then being fired three weeks after this interview, there's no denying that WB expected more from it.

That doesn't make it a failure by any means but the situation is clearly not as bright as these raw numbers might suggest.

 

[GreenKToo]

still, its the 2nd highest grossing reboot ever, 1st in dom for a reboot.
I have to think that with WB being so he11 bent on making a JL film, that a batman/superman film was always the plan for the next film. Heck, I wouldnt be surprised if WF can make as much, or more, than a JL film.

I mean MoS has made more than x-men, the hulk, blade, thor, cap america, the first IM, wolverine, etc, and they all got, or are getting, sequels.
a reboot in the hulks case, but still, mos made more than TIH also.

No, I think WF is and was WB's plan all along to counter Avengers 2.
I think most studios would love to be disappointed with a ( so far) 650 million take
Also, wb got something like 150 mill from the marketing partners before mos was even released. so they arent hurting a bit.

Robinov was excited, but he should have kept that to himself..i'll give you that.

 

[STARMAN]

It's not how much a movie makes. It's how much a studio makes. I have no idea what WB's profit margin was for this film.

 

[ModernClarkKent]

still, its the 2nd highest grossing reboot ever, 1st in dom for a reboot.
I have to think that with WB being so he11 bent on making a JL film, that a batman/superman film was always the plan for the next film. Heck, I wouldnt be surprised if WF can make as much, or more, than a JL film.

I mean MoS has made more than x-men, the hulk, blade, thor, cap america, the first IM, wolverine, etc, and they all got, or are getting, sequels.
a reboot in the hulks case, but still, mos made more than TIH also.

No, I think WF is and was WB's plan all along to counter Avengers 2.
I think most studios would love to be disappointed with a ( so far) 650 million take
Also, wb got something like 150 mill from the marketing partners before mos was even released. so they arent hurting a bit.

Robinov was excited, but he should have kept that to himself..i'll give you that.

It's made more than the second iron man too

 

[JKKS085]

I mean MoS has made more than x-men, the hulk, blade, thor, cap america, the first IM, wolverine, etc, and they all got, or are getting, sequels.
a reboot in the hulks case, but still, mos made more than TIH also.

Yes, but you also have to factor in that MoS has by far the highest production and promotionnal budget of that list. When you spend around 375M to make and promote a movie it's only logical to expect a bigger return on investement. That doesn't mean WB won't make a good chunk on money on this movie or that MoS won't turn out profitable but all evidences so far point to them expecting much more than what they got.

No, I think WF is and was WB's plan all along to counter Avengers 2.

It may have been, and I think it's a very smart move all in all, but MoS being a bit bigger (in the billion range for instance), I think they wouldn't have been afraid to counter Avengers Age Of Ultron with a direct sequel (wich was what Snyder wanted, so that doesn't exactly point towards a plan defined well in advance).

Anyhow expecting 1B+ from a reboot, the first movie of a new franchise with a june release wasn't exactly what I would call realistic. It's just greed speaking not a well thought strategy. I think WB displays a worrying pattern of incompetence when it comes to controlling their budgets on big productions such as MoS, and with a pb around 175 millions (like it was reported at first), they could have been perfectly happy with a lower income. For instance Marvel never spent more than 200 millions to produce their solo movies. MoS' main issue is that it has a budget on par with the 1,5B The Avengers.

Also, wb got something like 150 mill from the marketing partners before mos was even released. so they arent hurting a bit.

Yeah but that's hardly news (despite the fact that studios usually don't communicate on that front, makes you wonder what they were REALLY trying to say/cover up for). WB or MoS for that instance don't have some kind of monopole over incomes from product placements. It happens with every single blockbuster movie.

 

[GreenKToo]

I never thought it would make more than 650/700 million. For a brief moment I thought it was possible that it might hit 750 mill ( the hype right before opening) but I lowered it back to 650/700 mill.
Reboots just dnt make a billion. not Superman, not spider-man, or Batman.

Anywho, I'm not a bit surprised at the WF announcement. The end game is JL. They want that, and they want it now. A WF film is the next piece of the puzzle. It will be full of references to other heroes. Maybe even a cameo or two.

 

[JKKS085]

MoS is actually performing right on par with my personnal expectations. Back in september 2012 I predicted a ww total of 660M wich will be close to the movie's final numbers. So I can't say that I'm not completely happy of how it performed.

And you're completely right reboots just don't make a billion (or none ever did). The Amazing Spider-Man didn't (and it had a previous outing far more successful than Superman Returns and overall a bigger fanbase, especially worldwide), Casino Royale didn't, Star Trek '09 didn't. That's why WB should have been more controlling of their money.

 

[John-An]

MOS making 650M WW is not a disappointment. The movie may have been, but it's BO success is not.

Well the movie is great not feeling disappointment.. but if you do respected.... THE MOVIE WAS AWESOME AND MADE A GREAT B.O.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Rumor is it might be a week long return to IMAX.

Awesome. I saw it 3 times in IMAX 3D, and never the 2D version. I guess I'll keep checking here for some news/updates.