Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - - - Part 12

[Liam_H]

You're overestimating the money pulled from 3D...It's nothing significant.

For Avatar? I wouldn't say that.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

They made money. By the very definition they are commercial successes.

So technically, TIH is a commercial success and Thor is a massive hit.

 

[kguillou]

If I may interject, I think it's astounding that we've come to the point in cinema where we are debating how many billions of dollars a film will make. Soon its going to get to a point where a film is considered a flop if it doesn't break $1B.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I doubt TA2 is going to beat Titanic.

It is going to be fascinating. Lets simply say it is considered the same kind of creative success the first film was. How much of the "first time" experience was responsible for the box office. Initial rush, followed by a steep drop off? Will it hit $1.5bil again? Will it pass $2bil?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So technically, TIH is a commercial success and Thor is a massive hit.

Thor did very well. TIH did not. Especially when you consider how the rights for that film were all over the place.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

It is going to be fascinating. Lets simply say it is considered the same kind of creative success the first film was. How much of the "First time" experience was responsible for the box office. Initial rush, followed by a steep drop off? Will it hit $1.5bil again? With it pass $2bil?

Joss Whedon, I'm sure is planning on doing something a bit different. He said in an interview it will be "smaller", whatever that means.
Either way, I don't even think it will come close to Avatar money, unless every movie starts making $1 billion in 2015.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If I may interject, I think it's astounding that we've come to the point in cinema where we are debating how many billions of dollars a film will make. Soon its going to get to a point where a film is considered a flop if it doesn't break $1B.

You have clearly missed the MoS discussion then. That is already happening.

 

[Travesty]

It is going to be fascinating. Lets simply say it is considered the same kind of creative success the first film was. How much of the "First time" experience was responsible for the box office. Initial rush, followed by a steep drop off? Will it hit $1.5bil again? With it pass $2bil?

I doubt it will go to $2bil. I think it'll land around the same as the first. It could do a little under or a little over of what it did, but I don't see it going over $2bil. Anywhere from $1.3bil-$1.8bil.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I doubt it will go to $2bil. I think it'll land around the same as the first. It could do a little under or a little over of what it did, but I don't see it going over $2bil. Anywhere from $1.3bil-$1.8bil.

That seems to be a solid appraisal really. Still, hard to tell this far out.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

You have clearly missed the MoS discussion then. That is already happening.

What's funny is that the same person who doubted this movie was going to even get $650 million, is now saying the studio may be a bit disappointed that it didn't get $800 million.

 

[InJustice]

For Avatar? I wouldn't say that.

Avatar was one of the few films where the common critique was that the 3D actually enhanced the viewing experience, so of course more people would be willing to try it out.

But post-production 3D in general is a waste of money simply because of how it doesn't enhance jack diddly-squat.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What's funny is that the same person who doubted this movie was going to even get $650 million, is now saying the studio may be a bit disappointed that it didn't get $800 million.

Box Office threads are wacky like that.

 

[ConanLives]

I think a WF movie could beat Avatars numbers. The JLA movie would be awesome but lets not kid ourselves as to who fans would be going to see. Batman/Superman are the IT factor. I would love to see Flash and WW but WF would top a JLA movie.

It's a billion dollar franchise...not sure about Avatar numbers. I think it has potential to come close to Avengers type money.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

It's a billion dollar franchise...not sure about Avatar numbers. I think it has potential to come close to Avengers type money.

I can agree with this.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Iron Man is popular because of RDJ. Take him away and lets see how popular the character is. Also Hulk is popular with fans, not the GA.

There are always reasons why character become well-known/popular. Whatever the reason is, it still counts. It's very true that RDJ is one of the big reasons IM is now a big deal. But now that IM is a big deal, you can't just erase that from people's minds. All the kids who are dressing up as IM for Halloween are going to stay IM fans long after RDJ is gone. I'm sure there will be ups and downs at the box office over the years as they recast (probably more than once like with James Bond), but you can't put IM back in the box now. He'll never be obscure again.

The Hulk is popular at the moment also because of Avengers. The problem is, no one has actually used the Hulk character onscreen yet so we don't know how the public would react to him. They keep making him a virtual mute with almost no personality. That works in Avengers...that won't work in a solo film. Bruce Banner is boring...the public is not ever going to be interested in a Bruce Banner film with special guest "Mute Hulk" who comes along every now and then to smash stuff. Some claim they can't afford to put the Hulk onscreen...fine...don't bother until you can afford it. But after seeing that Youtube video of "Hulk vs Superman"....I'm not convinced it would be as expensive as it used to be. That guy made that video at his house and it looks pretty good.

Since people wanna bash my WF prediction, lets look at this. TDK made 1B with no 3D and cheaper tickets. TDKR also made over 1B with no 3D. MoS will come up 300m short of reaching 1B when it's run ends. No Marvel until Avengers even sniffed 1B!! It took 6 Marvel characters to do it then that weak ass IM3 rode its coat tails to 1B. So sorry but the BO proves who is more popular and Batman didnt even need 3D to do it

I think the general public knows the difference between Iron Man and the Avengers. They kinda knew there would be no Thor, Cap, and Hulk. I think what Avengers did was raise the popularity of the Iron Man character because more people got to see him in Avengers.

As you said, box office proves it and IM made more than TDKR. If Avengers is the reason IM is more popular that's still a valid reason. Don't forget that TDK had a variety of reasons for its box office too. Some of those reasons did not really directly include the Batman character.

Do not bring the Aurora incident into this, all speculation that can't be proved one way or the other.

Agreed. There is nothing in the box office numbers that proves anything. TDKR was destined to make less than TDK for several reasons. And when you look at the weekend grosses for Brave and Ice Age that weekend, there is nothing unusual there....as family films, they would have been most effected if there was an effect.

The people that paid to see TDK and MOS are for the most part the same people. There's overlap. You can't just say, "This movie made $1mil and this one made $1mil so that means if they get together it'll be $2mil!!" It doesn't work that way. So many things have to align to make Avatar money it's not funny.

Let's not forget people said the same thing about Avengers and look how that turned out.

The novelty factor is worth a lot with movies. Now....will the novelty be as strong for a teamup of Supes and Bats after Avengers already broke it so big? That's a question.

And?? Ticket prices are higher plus 3D is more wide spread. Avatar beat Titanic so its not like 2.8 cant be beat. Now days we expect hit movies to make more than 1B. I bet Avengers 2 will come close or might even beat Avatar. It should beat Titanic for sure. Then WF can best A2

I say Avengers 2 will gross less for the same reasons TDKR grossed less than TDK. Once a franchise is a box office phenomenon, it does not repeat the same feat with the followup. It always takes a perfect storm of factors to create a box office event like that...usually making a movie appeal to a wide audience of different demographics. You don't do that every time out....even if people think the sequel is better. (Empire Strikes Back, Spider-Man 2)

 

[Travesty]

I say Avengers 2 will gross less for the same reasons TDKR grossed less than TDK.

TDKR grossed more.

 

[ConanLives]

Since people wanna bash my WF prediction, lets look at this. TDK made 1B with no 3D and cheaper tickets. TDKR also made over 1B with no 3D. MoS will come up 300m short of reaching 1B when it's run ends. No Marvel until Avengers even sniffed 1B!! It took 6 Marvel characters to do it then that weak ass IM3 rode its coat tails to 1B. So sorry but the BO proves who is more popular and Batman didnt even need 3D to do it

I agree completely.t:

Yeah!! YEAH!!

 

[ConanLives]

Moving swiftly on, what are the figures for Monday?

 

[Rowsdower!]

Moving swiftly on, what are the figures for Monday?

$11.4 million.

Succumbing to the fact that Pacific Rim is a massive bomb, WB agreed to attribute any more money it makes to Man of Steel's total.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Actually Batman needed 6 movies to reach one billion.

The franchise didn't start with Nolan.

 

[ModernClarkKent]

Moving swiftly on, what are the figures for Monday?

http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/movies/superman-man-of-steel-2012

Somewhat underwhelming: $592,243, but not unexpected.

 

[Alex Logan]

Tobias: Oh, it's at $281 million after 5 weekends? Max it'll do is $285.

 

[Rowsdower!]

http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/movies/superman-man-of-steel-2012

Somewhat underwhelming: $592,243, but not unexpected.

WHOA, what? They have the movie's BUDGET at $300 million.

 

[kalhawj]

WHOA, what? They have the movie's BUDGET at $300 million.

Boxofficemojo.com is the only site I trust... t:

 

[ModernClarkKent]

Yes, yes, I know, I have the same gripes with them as well, but apart from that, they are very accurate