Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread

[Mysteryman]

Look at Batman Begins or even Star Trek. If this movie can reignite the character/franchise then we will get a sequel.

Agreed.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I agree with this. Thor made 449M WW, and while he's not as recognized as Superman, I really don't think it's going to be 300M more than that movie was. Plus if you adjust Batman Begins for inflation, it's around 450-500M.

500M-600M is a good start and will start the franchise.

Part of the problem, and I know I've beat this like a dead horse, but having a mid June release date was horrible for this film, and hopefully it will have good legs, because there's strong competition on either side of it's release.

That's why I will never go too high on the film, I think that the release date is bad for a movie with such a huge budget. I know people think that good word of mouth will overcome the release date but I doubt it. We will see who's predictions are the closest some time in July.

Name the last early or mid June release that made 300mil domestically? I think you'd have to go back pretty freakin far. Maybe JP in 1993? So 20 years ago?

Good luck breaking the June curse because the only huge hits I can recall are JP and a couple of Pixar flicks. Personally I think my prediction is pretty generous considering the recent history of movies like MOS with the same release date.

 

[Mr.M]

Name the last early or mid June release that made 300mil domestically? I think you'd have to go back pretty freakin far. Maybe JP in 1993? So 20 years ago?

Transformers 2 June 24th 2009

 

[Marvin]

Transformers 2 June 24th 2009

indeed.
The real question should has always been, when's the last time a hit movie was released in june that didn't have any baggage.

People act like if Avengers was released in june it'd be done for.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Transformers 2 June 24th 2009

The July 4th long weekend that starts in late June doesn't count, that was a sequel not a reboot to a film that made over 300mil and the 24th is not early or the mid June. Try again.

 

[Mr.M]

The July 4th long weekend that starts in late June doesn't count, that was a sequel not a reboot to a film that made over 300mil and the 24th is not early or the mid June. Try again.

Explain to me how June 24th is the July 4th weekend one more time

indeed.
The real question should have always been, when's the last time a hit movie was released in june that didn't have any baggage.

People act like if Avengers was released in june it'd be done for.

To be fair, 2009 was light because of the writers strike, so TF2 and Potter 6 or whatever part it was reaped the benefits. Still, June is fine for MoS. I would have gone mid July, but you don't want The Wolverine to uneccessarily cut into your gross. I thought they could have muscled Fox out of there and moved Pacific Rim to June if they were desperate. They decided not to be aggressive. We'll see what happens.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

I don't think the June release date will influence the box office as much as some do.

 

[KangConquers]

Roughly $700 M ww.

 

[Marvin]

I'm sticking with $850
a little more than ASM.

 

[Liam_H]

Explain to me how June 24th is the July 4th weekend one more time

It isn't but the reasoning still stands that TF2 is not in the same situation as MOS. It was the movie itself, if IM3 were to theoretically release in this date it would most likely still earn roughly the same amount of money because its IM3. MOS does not have that kind of pull.

Toy Story 3 is probably the biggest hit to release during such a date in recent memory. But that's because its Toy Story 3, another date during the summer probably would've worked just as well.

 

[Mysteryman]

Explain to me how June 24th is the July 4th weekend one more time



To be fair, 2009 was light because of the writers strike, so TF2 and Potter 6 or whatever part it was reaped the benefits. Still, June is fine for MoS. I would have gone mid July, but you don't want The Wolverine to uneccessarily cut into your gross. I thought they could have muscled Fox out of there and moved Pacific Rim to June if they were desperate. They decided not to be aggressive. We'll see what happens.

Some studios like to release their movies a week before the Fourth to give them a better chance of starting out with two weeks at Number 1 at the Box Office .
Choosing to open on that particular weekend was no accident .

 

[Mysteryman]

Anybody have an example of a nonsequel that opened in the middle of June that went on to make $300 million domestic or over .
Even better, How about a reboot that acheived that?

 

[Liam_H]

As mentioned above only thing that really fits that is Jurassic Park and E.T. but they aren't really appropriate comparisons. So I guess the answer would be no.

 

[flickchick85]

Most movies don't get 100 m spent toward marketing. That's reserved for only movies with a 200+ m production budget.

And yet, the reported marketing budget of BB was $100m and according to the LA Times, Star Trek's was $150 (yep, even more than its $140m production budget). So a $500m WW take for MoS would put its profit margins easily on par with those. I have little doubt that would be enough for a sequel as long as it was well-received.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

the reported marketing budget of BB was $100m

BB as in Batman Begins? lawl. What did they spend it on? BB had terrible marketing.

 

[echostation]

Um the last Superman movie was less than 391 million. This is not going beyond 600 million tops global.

 

[Travesty]

Um the last Superman movie was less than 391 million. This is not going beyond 600 million tops global.

I'm going with $650-$700.

 

[sup101]

700 TO 800 M WW.This movie won't be actionless AKA boring like returns and will have a superman that will fight.

 

[solidsnake86]

And yet, the reported marketing budget of BB was $100m and according to the LA Times, Star Trek's was $150 (yep, even more than its $140m production budget). So a $500m WW take for MoS would put its profit margins easily on par with those. I have little doubt that would be enough for a sequel as long as it was well-received.

Marketing budgets are often tax deductible so I don't know why people figure that money into the cost as if all of it is lost. Hollywood has creative accounting. As for this film, if it can make more than SR they are in good shape.

 

[kedrell]

$500M WW + with good WOM is enough to get this film a sequel. However, there's more riding on this film than just that. They're also hoping this will kick start an entire DCCU/JLA or whatever and it'll need more than $500M WW I think to make that happen. I think it'll need at least TASM's WW #'s to make WB confident enough to proceed with all that.

 

[solidsnake86]

$500M WW + with good WOM is enough to get this film a sequel. However, there's more riding on this film than just that. They're also hoping this will kick start an entire DCCU/JLA or whatever and it'll need more than $500M WW I think to make that happen. I think it'll need at least TASM's WW #'s to make WB confident enough to proceed with all that.

I think the level of success means different things. First, lets say MOS makes Iron Man numbers or better. That will probably put a sequel on the fast track instead of JL. If its a moderate success i.e. it breaks even, I think JL will be on the fast track and the sequel will be on the back burner. If its an utter failure, well lets hope that doesn't happen.

When the dark knight came out, if it had done only slightly better than batman begins, believe me, that JL film would have been going forward. So actually I think the bigger MOS ends up being, the less of a push it kickstarting the DC universe will be, namely a JL film. They may go back to the solo films.

 

[flickchick85]

BB as in Batman Begins? lawl. What did they spend it on? BB had terrible marketing.

They had several trailers (even a "Dominos trailer," as I recall), a Superbowl spot, a special 10-minute preview during the Smallville finale (back when Smallville was one of the highest-rated shows on The WB), the cover of EW's big Summer Movie Preview issue, plenty of other magazine covers, and loads of TV spots. Seemed like pretty heavy marketing to me. More than MoS will likely get. I mean, we already didn't get the Superbowl spot afterall, and I'll be surprised if we get a 10-minute preview with Arrow or any other show. Arrow's audience (or any CW show's audience these days) hardly seems big enough to warrant it.

 

[kedrell]

They had several trailers (even a "Dominos trailer," as I recall), a Superbowl spot, a special 10-minute preview during the Smallville finale (back when Smallville was one of the highest-rated shows on The WB), the cover of EW's big Summer Movie Preview issue, plenty of other magazine covers, and loads of TV spots. Seemed like pretty heavy marketing to me. More than MoS will likely get. I mean, we already didn't get the Superbowl spot afterall, and I'll be surprised if we get a 10-minute preview with Arrow or any other show. Arrow's audience (or any CW show's audience these days) hardly seems big enough to warrant it.

Besides, it'd be a waste since it'd pretty much be preaching to the choir.

 

[kedrell]

I think the level of success means different things. First, lets say MOS makes Iron Man numbers or better. That will probably put a sequel on the fast track instead of JL. If its a moderate success i.e. it breaks even, I think JL will be on the fast track and the sequel will be on the back burner. If its an utter failure, well lets hope that doesn't happen.

When the dark knight came out, if it had done only slightly better than batman begins, believe me, that JL film would have been going forward. So actually I think the bigger MOS ends up being, the less of a push it kickstarting the DC universe will be, namely a JL film. They may go back to the solo films.

Interesting take on it, I'd not considered that. Well, we'll just have to see how this all pans out.

 

[flickchick85]

Besides, it'd be a waste since it'd pretty much be preaching to the choir.

Yeah. Which was also the case with Smallville, too, I suppose. Might have behooved them to do it with a show that had a larger, broader audience.