MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Stark Bauer]

The streaming bubble has burst. They are throwing out the money for "prestige" films like they used to. The loss of episodes is just as much a factor of them trying to save budget as much as it is with going for big names whose schedules cannot handle a traditional television show. Even one of 13 episodes.

God, I miss 13 episode seasons.

Fallout and Alien Earth beg to differ

 

[mace1]

THE FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS Passes $450M Worldwide; Will Finish Closer To SUPERMAN Than Expected​

As of now, The Fantastic Four: First Steps is eyeing a $500 million - $510 million global cume, a solid, albeit unspectacular, result, and one that means the movie should, at the very least, break even.
It's hard to say whether Disney and Marvel Studios will be happy with this. However, the latter has succeeded in delivering the first critically acclaimed movie starring these characters ahead of their return in next December's Avengers: Doomsday. With that and Avengers: Secret Wars guaranteed to further increase interest in the Fantastic Four franchise, there's a good chance we will eventually get a sequel revolving around Reed, Sue, Ben, and Johnny.

https://**************.com/fantasti...nish-closer-to-superman-than-expected-a223371

 

[Sithborg]

Fallout and Alien Earth beg to differ

FX is kind of Disney's HBO. And the reason they had confidence to give him that budget, is because Hawley had already proven himself. As for Fallout, how many things has Amazon cancelled so far? The have been on a cancelling spree. Prestige television is not going to be bigger than movies.

 

[Sithborg]

THE FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS Passes $450M Worldwide; Will Finish Closer To SUPERMAN Than Expected​

https://**************.com/fantasti...nish-closer-to-superman-than-expected-a223371

They are still going to be $100 million less than Superman. What were their expectations???

 

[donuts]

For a movie franchise that never went near $400m, settled into mediocrity and on top of that had a disastrous reboot not too long ago, I feel like you're being overly dramatic and pessimistic about this new endeavour.

China (and Russia) aren't Hollywood's magic box office wands, so there's that.

The MCU doesn't quite have the same gratuitous goodwill as it had a few years ago.

And in addition, the movie's a very solid franchise starter, but also not a knockout.

So, all in all, I'd say it's doing pretty good. And it's likely created some new Fantastic Four fans that will follow the team through future movies.

$500m is not a bad result at all. I'm sure Disney is glad it's doing better than Cap and Thunderbolts (which was the better movie).

And next year has Avengers Doomsday, which is gonna be a total nostalgia fest in the vein of Spider-Man No Way Home and Deadpool & Wolverine, and in addition will propel the new teams, so you can all breathe a sigh of relief.

 

[mace1]

The MCU has churned out 37 films in the last 18 years - Only 3 movies failed to be profitable. Marvels and Quantummania and Thunderbolts. That’s still a staggeringly high 92% success rate.

MCU MOVIES that flopped so far theatrical.

Phase 1
The incredibles hulk

Phase 4
Black widow
Eternals

Phase 5
Ant -man and wasp quantumania
The marvels
Captain america brave new world
Thunderbolts.

Note-
Comicbookcast said thor and captain america the first avenger in phase 1 flop too but he is incorrect on those two.

 

[mace1]

More details about those flops.
Most of those mcu marvel movies made thier money back in other ways and while most were flops none of them were bombs like the marvels, most of the dceu movies and joker 2 for example.
The only two mcu movies we are not sure made thier money back so far or have not made thier money back yet is captain america brave new world and thunderbolts and they just came out this year but they will make thier money back varied ways.

The flops the mcu had is incredible hulk box office in phase 1,eternals in phase 4 and ant-man 3 and the marvels in phase 5.
Eternals came out during covid and not playing in china.
Black widow flopped on the big screen and it came out when covid was happening and not shown in china as well but made up for it on disney plus so the movie overall not really a flop.
Ant-man 3 made it's money back and the marvels and eternals was watch alot on disney plus.
The mcu made it's money back for the marvels last year.
The marvels came out doing a strike by the way so they could not do more marketing before the movie came out.


Some info on black widow to make it clear what happen.

Answering Once and For All If ‘Black Widow’ Was a Hit or a Flop
Was Marvel's 'Black Widow' was a home run or a strike out? We dug through the numbers.

Answering Once and For All If ‘Black Widow’ Was a Hit or a Flop

Scarlett Johansson’s ‘Black Widow’ is at the center of Hollywood’s biggest business debate. But was the Marvel blockbuster a success?

observer.com

Is black widow really a flop?

No, Black Widow was not a definitive flop, but rather an underperforming film due to its dual release strategy on Disney+ and in theaters, which impacted its box office performance and led to different perspectives on its success. While its opening box office was a pandemic-era record, the combined revenue was below Marvel's high expectations, and the simultaneous streaming release was seen as a failure by some, particularly theater owners.

Did black widow make a profit streaming, merchandising and vod?

Yes, Marvel's "Black Widow" was profitable, generating over $60 million in revenue from Disney+ Premier Access alone in its opening weekend. Combined with its box office performance of $158.8 million, the movie's total opening weekend revenue was $218.8 million. While specific numbers for merchandising and other ancillary revenue streams are not publicly disclosed, the film's overall financial success is clear.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
Disney+ Premier Access:
"Black Widow" generated over $60 million in revenue from Disney+ Premier Access, a significant portion of its total opening weekend earnings.
Box Office:
The film grossed $158.8 million globally in its opening weekend, including $80 million domestically and $78.8 million internationally.
Merchandising and Ancillary Revenue:
While specific figures are not publicly available, it's likely that merchandising and other ancillary revenue streams contributed to the overall profitability of the film.
Profitability:
While the exact profit margin isn't disclosed, the film's high opening weekend revenue and strong performance in other revenue streams suggest it was financially successful.

$125 million... that’s how much Walt Disney claims that Black Widow has earned as of August 15 via streaming and VOD-specific transactions since its global release on the week of July 9, As revealed via a court filing on Friday in a motion requesting a confidential arbitration in New York (versus a public trial) for the Scarlett Johansson lawsuit, the MCU prequel didn’t quite drop dead after is newsworthy $60 million in global Disney+ “Premier Access” transactions.

‘Black Widow’ Disney+ Grosses Add New Wrinkles To Theaters Vs. Streaming Debates

It would seem that 'Black Widow' earned almost as much via theaters and PVOD as it might have been expected to earn just in theaters.

www.forbes.com

bepositive99 quote-

The Marvels faced challenges such as the SAG-AFTRA strike and a lack of star promotion, contributing to its low box office performance.

​

Ant-Man And The Wasp: Quantumania Made A Profit Despite Box Office Failures According To New Report​

Ant-Man And The Wasp: Quantumania Made A Profit Despite Box Office Failures According To New Report

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is divisive.

screenrant.com

 

[psylockolussus]

The streaming bubble has burst. They are throwing out the money for "prestige" films like they used to. The loss of episodes is just as much a factor of them trying to save budget as much as it is with going for big names whose schedules cannot handle a traditional television show. Even one of 13 episodes.

God, I miss 13 episode seasons.

I miss 22-24 episode seasons.

There's still shows that I watch that get over 10 episodes like The Rookie and Grey's Anatomy. But its mostly reality tv shows.

 

[lenz]

Given the choice I'll take 8-12 episodes of a great series over 22 episodes with a bunch of filler.

I don't think 20+ episodes will ever be the norm again.

 

[donuts]

Given the choice I'll take 8-12 episodes of a great series over 22 episodes with a bunch of filler.

I don't think 20+ episodes will ever be the norm again.

20+ episodes was simply the network television standard to fill the schedule from September to May.

That's simply not the reality we live in anymore.

I don't dislike the shorter seasons, but I'd welcome quicker turnarounds for new episodes.

 

[OrbOfConfusion]

Given the choice I'll take 8-12 episodes of a great series over 22 episodes with a bunch of filler.

I don't think 20+ episodes will ever be the norm again.

Unless you're talking about dramas or procedural shows like Law & Order, where I think even that show still has 20-episode seasons.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I am okay with 10 episodes, but I think 6 or less feels like a waste of time to me. They're almost always simultaneously too padded and feel short. That's when you get that this was an overly long movie thing. Or you get like Eyes of Wakanda where it is 4 episodes and it feels like you watched nothing. To me there is no point in things that short.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

954k Wednesday, 250.49m domestic now. Just for the record.

 

[Sithborg]

More details about those flops.
Most of those mcu marvel movies made thier money back in other ways and while most were flops none of them were bombs like the marvels, most of the dceu movies and joker 2 for example.
The only two mcu movies we are not sure made thier money back so far or have not made thier money back yet is captain america brave new world and thunderbolts and they just came out this year but they will make thier money back varied ways.

The flops the mcu had is incredible hulk box office in phase 1,eternals in phase 4 and ant-man 3 and the marvels in phase 5.
Eternals came out during covid and not playing in china.
Black widow flopped on the big screen and it came out when covid was happening and not shown in china as well but made up for it on disney plus so the movie overall not really a flop.
Ant-man 3 made it's money back and the marvels and eternals was watch alot on disney plus.
The mcu made it's money back for the marvels last year.
The marvels came out doing a strike by the way so they could not do more marketing before the movie came out.


Some info on black widow to make it clear what happen.

Answering Once and For All If ‘Black Widow’ Was a Hit or a Flop
Was Marvel's 'Black Widow' was a home run or a strike out? We dug through the numbers.

Answering Once and For All If ‘Black Widow’ Was a Hit or a Flop

Scarlett Johansson’s ‘Black Widow’ is at the center of Hollywood’s biggest business debate. But was the Marvel blockbuster a success?

observer.com

Is black widow really a flop?


Did black widow make a profit streaming, merchandising and vod?

‘Black Widow’ Disney+ Grosses Add New Wrinkles To Theaters Vs. Streaming Debates

It would seem that 'Black Widow' earned almost as much via theaters and PVOD as it might have been expected to earn just in theaters.

www.forbes.com

bepositive99 quote-

​

Ant-Man And The Wasp: Quantumania Made A Profit Despite Box Office Failures According To New Report​

Ant-Man And The Wasp: Quantumania Made A Profit Despite Box Office Failures According To New Report

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is divisive.

screenrant.com

No offense, but unless these article writers have stolen the actual financial books that no one gets to see, this is just speculation.

 

[Stark Bauer]

FX is kind of Disney's HBO. And the reason they had confidence to give him that budget, is because Hawley had already proven himself. As for Fallout, how many things has Amazon cancelled so far? The have been on a cancelling spree. Prestige television is not going to be bigger than movies.

It depends how you mean. Financially perhaps no. I dont know the ins and outs of streaming business model. But clearly Netflix has become as big if not bigger than the major studios.

Storywise, I think streaming has one up on movies. You arent going to get a movie with a more engaging story than Breaking Bad for instance. Audiences can’t camp out in the theatre to binge watch hundreds of hours

 

[Stark Bauer]

I am okay with 10 episodes, but I think 6 or less feels like a waste of time to me. They're almost always simultaneously too padded and feel short. That's when you get that this was an overly long movie thing. Or you get like Eyes of Wakanda where it is 4 episodes and it feels like you watched nothing. To me there is no point in things that short.

Thats what she said.

Also I watched Secret Invasion and i want my time back

 

[donuts]

Thats what she said.

Also I watched Secret Invasion and i want my time back

Secret Invasion might be the single worst media that Marvel Studios has put out!?

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Well, the film is at $250M Stateside and just over $25M away from $500M global. Any thoughts on how far it will climb past half a billion?

 

[psylockolussus]

Well, the film is at $250M Stateside and just over $25M away from $500M global. Any thoughts on how far it will climb past half a billion?

It should get a Labor Day weekend boost, in North America. Internationally, not sure how? The film is likely hitting digital stores in more or less 4 weeks.

Domestic (53.1%)
$251,351,951

International (46.9%)
$222,212,182

Worldwide
$473,564,133

 

[psylockolussus]

I've mentioned before how international numbers are lagging, and its North America which are pulling the bigger numbers, but its even more evident with Superman.

International box-office
$256,000,000 - Superman
$222,212,182 - The Fantastic 4: First Steps

Their international box office (34 million difference) are much closer compare to North America, in which there's a 92 million difference.

North America box-office
$343,545,181 - Superman
$251,351,951 - The Fantastic 4: First Steps

It would be interesting to see how Spider-Man and Avengers will perform internationally next year. Supergirl, is probably going to do much less than Superman's 256 million internationally.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Well, the film is at $250M Stateside and just over $25M away from $500M global. Any thoughts on how far it will climb past half a billion?

Has to get there first. It’s a slow crawl to half a billion.

 

[mace1]

No offense, but unless these article writers have stolen the actual financial books that no one gets to see, this is just speculation.

Incorrect.
For example-
So black widow making money from disney plus and making a profit and making a more profits from streaming,merchandising and vod is just speculation?
Antman 3 making a profit after it flop at the box office is just speculation?
Pasts mcu movies like incredible hulk from 2008 that had large video sales,merchandise etc.. after it flop did not make profits after all this time after the hulk film in phase 1 and after marvel had movies making over a 1 billion dollars and other movies in phase 1,2 and 3 that had hit after hit after hit is just speculation?
Eternals and the marvels did not make thier money back after most disney movies had hits in 2022,2024 etc.. and other means mention above is just speculation?
So i guess boxoffice websites like the numbers and box office mojo etc.. that give you info on how much movies makes everyday and everyweek is just speculation too?
Nope not speculation at all.

 

[lenz]

Incorrect.
For example-
So black widow making money from disney plus and making a profit and making a more profits from streaming,merchandising and vod is just speculation?
Antman 3 making a profit after it flop at the box office is just speculation?
Pasts mcu movies like incredible hulk from 2008 that had large video sales,merchandise etc.. after it flop did not make profits after all this time after the hulk film in phase 1 and after marvel had movies making over a 1 billion dollars and other movies in phase 1,2 and 3 that had hit after hit after hit is just speculation?
Eternals and the marvels did not make thier money back after most disney movies had hits in 2022,2024 etc.. and other means mention above is just speculation?
So i guess boxoffice websites like the numbers and box office mojo etc.. that give you info on how much movies makes everyday and everyweek is just speculation too?
Nope not speculation at all.

They've lost a lot of their fanbase regardless. A huge issue is they are failing to attract younger audiences, particularly young men. Men have always been the core demo for comics. They didn't buy Marvel and Star Wars for nearly 10 billion to struggle for this demo's attention, it's the reason they bought them.

With a basic understanding of who the audience is and with better management & execution, this stuff should be undeniable. A no-brainer. Alas.

 

[mace1]

They've lost a lot of their fanbase regardless. A huge issue is they are failing to attract younger audiences, particularly young men. Men have always been the core demo for comics. They didn't buy Marvel and Star Wars for nearly 10 billion to struggle for this demo's attention, it's the reason they bought them.

With a basic understanding of who the audience is and with better management & execution, this stuff should be undeniable. A no-brainer. Alas.

​

Disney’s Boy Trouble: Studio Seeks Original IP to Win Back Gen-Z Men Amid Marvel, Lucasfilm Struggles​

Disney’s Boy Trouble: Studio Seeks Original IP to Win Back Gen-Z Men Amid Marvel, Lucasfilm Struggles

As Marvel and Lucasfilm stumble, Disney hopes originals will lure Gen Z audiences.

variety.com

That info about the men was posted here.

The Box Office (2024)

DS released in more countries--and broke records in them! DS has passed bad guy 2's box office in just a few countries!

community.cbr.com

 

[mace1]

The domestic numbers for most these phase 5 mcu movies,phase 6 ff4 and for dcu superman is fine.It's the international numbers that is the problem.Asia more so china and parts of europe. North and south america are showing up.

More talk about this as well here.

Do You Believe Comic Book Movie Fatigue Is Setting In?

I think they need to do just one cbm a year 1 wb 1 marvel 1 other and cap them at 100 million. That raises an interesting point. Back in the 1990s, when the going rate of an big action movie was allegedly 100 million dollars, I was at a sci fi convention and attended a lecture and Q&A with...

community.cbr.com