Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Prediction Thread

[Iceman]

Hopefully Star Wars starts taking off in China as each of these new set of films comes out.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

So it'd be $225M under Civil War prior to the China release.

So China $100-125M and then another $100 global?

It's not impossible. China's going to be the deciding factor.

 

[Sithborg]

So it'd be $225M under Civil War prior to the China release.

So China $100-125M and then another $100 global?

Pretty much. Rogue One is doing better than CW in Europe, US, and Australia. South Korea and Brazil are the only two regions that CW is absolutely killing Rogue that I saw.

 

[Sith]

Cap will likely keep the worldwide crown for 2016 tho.

I can't see that happening

 

[Silver Surfer]

It needs almost 330 mil to pass CW, I think it all depends on China. If R1 does TFA numbers in China, I think CW keeps the crown.

 

[spiderman2]

While I think we will know after next week if this can make more then CW WW or not. This is the 4th weekend coming up and so next week will be the 5th weekend that the movie has been out and normaly after 5 weeks movies have made like 90% of what they are going to make and with the moving be out ever where and having done 2 weekends in China and with China not having movies out has long by the end of next weekend the movie will have very little left to make.

 

[Filmfan93]

Any suggestions on when it will hit $1 billion ?

 

[Ozbridge]

3.2M yuan (around $480k) mid-night from China according to Olive from BOT. I predict 8M opening day and 30M OW for 75M total (40% drop from TFA).

 

[JB33]

Rogue One took in about $6.27M on Tuesday on the domestic side. There's the big drop I was anticipating. I'm expecting roughly $5M for Wednesday, give or take a few hundred K.

 

[Silver Surfer]

With those Chinese numbers, I'm afraid it's a wrap for the #1 WW race

 

[Mandon Knight]

This is easily going to soar past a $1 billion.

 

[Erzengel]

Past a $1 billion yes. Past CW's total, it's not looking like it.

 

[InCali]

In any case, Disney just killed it last year. When all is said and done, Disney will have the top 5 movies of the year; 4 of them over 1B and 1 "just" under 1B.

That's one rich mouse.....

 

[Iceman]

The future is looking better for Star Wars than any time since I've been alive. This has been a huge support act to TFA's crazy numbers and shows that non Episode films will also dominate when executed well. SW will also start being associated as a franchise of quality with people growing up with these new films.

 

[Erzengel]

Technically, no.

Rogue One's 2016 "total" ended on December 31.

 

[InCali]

Technically, no.

Rogue One's 2016 "total" ended on December 31.

Well, we all know that the year a movie is released in is the year the totals are counted. (Think American Sniper).

 

[Xrated48]

In any case, Disney just killed it last year. When all is said and done, Disney will have the top 5 movies of the year; 4 of them over 1B and 1 "just" under 1B.

That's one rich mouse.....

It's crazy to think they also have a shot at doing that this year two with another Star Wars film, three MCU films and Beauty and the Beast.

 

[Erzengel]

Cars 3, Coco and I guess Pirates as well.

 

[Xrated48]

Cars 3, Coco and I guess Pirates as well.

I forgot Pirates lol

 

[Iceman]

It's crazy to think they also have a shot at doing that this year two with another Star Wars film, three MCU films and Beauty and the Beast.

They have a shot at doing that every year lol with the same formula of 1 SW film, 3 MCU and a kid's film.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

They have a shot at doing that every year lol with the same formula of 1 SW film, 3 MCU and a kid's film.

Actually two to three kids films from Pixar and Walt Disney Animation.

Then they have live action princess movies and Pirate of the Caribbean.

Disney will easily make 2 billion DOM every year with these franchises on autopilot.

 

[Iceman]

Actually two to three kids films from Pixar and Walt Disney Animation.

Then they have live action princess movies and Pirate of the Caribbean.

Disney will easily make 2 billion DOM every year with these franchises on autopilot.

Good points. They've got the box office on lockdown with all these properties that can be perpetual winners.

 

[Nick Morton]

Actually two to three kids films from Pixar and Walt Disney Animation.

Then they have live action princess movies and Pirate of the Caribbean.

Disney will easily make 2 billion DOM every year with these franchises on autopilot.

In a couple of years when Disney has enough Live Action Princesses I imagine there will be some type of Disney Princess Team Up movie. The same audience that made Titanic #1 would likely make a movie like this #1 of all time

 

[Zant]

The projections from China are looking pretty bad. Not enough Chinese actors? Or maybe a Chinese lead next time. Maybe Disney/Lucasfilms will stop sucking up to China and realize that Star Wars is not happening there.

 

[Iceman]

Maybe it's not flashy enough for China.