Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Prediction Thread

[Erzengel]

Gamestop wrote an article about the smog condition possibly effecting Rogue One.

 

[Nick Morton]

Clearly Kevin Tsujihara is getting tired of seeing his DCEU movies failing while watching Disney crap out $1 Billion Dollar hits in their sleep all year round. So now Kevin Tsujihara can control the weather & hes gonna hit Disney where he supposedly thinks it will hurt with fog what a diabolical bastard

 

[Ozbridge]

The projections from China are looking pretty bad. Not enough Chinese actors? Or maybe a Chinese lead next time. Maybe Disney/Lucasfilms will stop sucking up to China and realize that Star Wars is not happening there.

The strategy preceding 2016’s release of The Force Awakens — the first Star Wars episode distributed by Disney — was an all-out marketing blitz. There’s nothing that says “We come in peace” more than 500 Stormtroopers lined up in battle array on the Great Wall of China.

On the practical side of things, Fox and Disney formed a partnership with internet giant Tencent to stream all six prequel films and opened a dedicated portal for viewers to learn about the Star Wars universe…and to sell merchandise.

And maybe Disney’s most interesting move to bring in Chinese youth: hiring “it” boy Lu Han as official Star Wars ambassador. Tasked with posting Star Wars-related Weibos to his millions of followers and gyrating in The Inner Force, a music video directed by Monster Hunt-helmer Raman Hui, Lu Han’s impact on The Force Awakens’ box office is still up for debate.

The film scored a robust two-day opening weekend of $52.6 million fueled largely in part by Disney’s marketing hype and groups of older, dedicated Star Wars fans.

Those new to the universe, however, were bored stiff by The Force’s by-the-numbers plot, outright confused by its character relationships, and unimpressed with a level of swordplay that they were more used to seeing in low-budget television series. Negative word of mouth hobbled the film in subsequent weeks and it ended with RMB 826 million ($124 million).

It’s this bad taste in the mouths of younger Chinese moviegoers that Disney must overcome with Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (星球大战外传：侠盗一&#21495, opening Friday, January 6.

http://chinafilminsider.com/screen-china-force-not-strong-rogue-one/

I'm not sure about other parts but I can confirm that the lightsaber duels in SW in general are nothing impressive in the eyes of Chinese audience (disclaimer: I'm not Chinese). Other stuff that attract US audience (space opera and fantasy elements, space ship, etc) might not be the taste of Chinese audience.

Btw OD is $10.3M.

 

[Nick Morton]

http://chinafilminsider.com/screen-china-force-not-strong-rogue-one/

I'm not sure about other parts but I can confirm that the lightsaber duels in SW in general are nothing impressive in the eyes of Chinese audience (disclaimer: I'm not Chinese). Other stuff that attract US audience (space opera and fantasy elements, space ship, etc) might not be the taste of Chinese audience.

Btw OD is $10.3M.

Box Office wise they saved movies like Terminator: Genisys & Warcraft but hate Star Wars ? Maybe now Disney will stop sucking up to the International Audience

 

[Iceman]

http://chinafilminsider.com/screen-china-force-not-strong-rogue-one/

I'm not sure about other parts but I can confirm that the lightsaber duels in SW in general are nothing impressive in the eyes of Chinese audience (disclaimer: I'm not Chinese). Other stuff that attract US audience (space opera and fantasy elements, space ship, etc) might not be the taste of Chinese audience.

Btw OD is $10.3M.

Yeah this is along the lines of what I thought. SW isn't necessarily the right type of big action that goes down well there. Needs more giant robots and supercars lol.

 

[Ozbridge]

Box Office wise they saved movies like Terminator: Genisys & Warcraft but hate Star Wars ? Maybe now Disney will stop sucking up to the International Audience

Chinese audience do like high quality films though, Furious 7 made 390M, Zootopia 240M, Jungle Book 150M, Hacksaw Ridge 52M (with good chance reaching 60M), Your Name also did very well, and there's nothing flashy about Hacksaw Ridge and Your Name. Too bad we apparently don't have a Chinese poster in SW sub forum to ask about Chinese audience's taste in movies.

Anyway I do agree that Disney should prioritize their marketing campaigns smartly. MCU movies should be promoted in China heavily, Disney animation (especially musical) in Japan and South Korea, SW mostly domestic, Pixar domestic and Japan.

Btw doesn't Kelly Marie Tran's character lead the B plot with Finn in Episode VIII? That might help a bit (even though she isn't Chinese).

 

[Nick Morton]

Im actually happy that some big movies are hard to crack overseas. Maybe Disney should stop relying on them so much & all it does is allow bootlegs & the movie being spoiled for everyone else when they release their movies internationally early. Im hoping the international audiences simply starts turning on Disneys bigger stuff in general but they definitely needed the International market for the magical $1 Billion which it now might not get or it will very slowly crawl to there

 

[JB33]

Let China eat up Transformers and fast cars. Don't pander do them when it comes to OUR #1 cinematic property.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Chinese audience do like high quality films though, Furious 7 made 390M, Zootopia 240M, Jungle Book 150M, Hacksaw Ridge 52M (with good chance reaching 60M), Your Name also did very well, and there's nothing flashy about Hacksaw Ridge and Your Name. Too bad we apparently don't have a Chinese poster in SW sub forum to ask about Chinese audience's taste in movies.

Anyway I do agree that Disney should prioritize their marketing campaigns smartly. MCU movies should be promoted in China heavily, Disney animation (especially musical) in Japan and South Korea, SW mostly domestic, Pixar domestic and Japan.

Btw doesn't Kelly Marie Tran's character lead the B plot with Finn in Episode VIII? That might help a bit (even though she isn't Chinese).

MCU is massive in China, heck Ant-Man made more money that BvS over there.

 

[Sithborg]

MCU is massive in China, heck Ant-Man made more money that BvS over there.

Apocalypse made more money than BvS in China. One of the few bright spots in its box office.

 

[Zant]

Yeah China loves their Xmen and MCU movies too. I wonder how much Deadpool would have made there. I think Star War just feels a bit too weird and bizarre to them. The original trilogy never caught on there and Disney's obsession with callbacks and rehashing stuff is not helping.

 

[Ozbridge]

MCU is massive in China, heck Ant-Man made more money that BvS over there.

I think MCU box office run in China seems massive because China is now a huge market, but relatively MCU films aren't really big compared to other US blockbusters. Like last year CW made less than Zootopia and Warcraft (thankfully Warcraft still lost to Zootopia), DS made less than Jungle Book, Kungfu Panda 3, XMA and SW:TFA. In 2015 AoU made less than Furious 7, Ant-Man made less than MI: Rogue Nation, Battle of Five Armies, Jurassic World and Terminator Genisys. In 2014 CA:TWS made less than Transformers, Interstellar, DoFP, GotG made less than Dawn of Planet of the Apes. Only in 2013 IM3 is highest grossing foreign movie.

Like, I get it that a 100M+ box office run in a single foreign market seems very impressive, but in fact the Chinese market also grows exponentially in recent years and actually there're several other movies/franchises already making much more than that.

Anyway back to Rogue One Passengers drops next week in China and if its run in South Korea is any indication then it'll outperform in China and Rogue One will drop hard to #2. After that it's the Chinese New Year and all local films will kill foreign films. I honestly think my initial prediction of 75M is too optimistic.

1B WW is apparently locked now but I wonder whether its domestic gross can dip lower than 50% worldwide.

Yeah China loves their Xmen and MCU movies too. I wonder how much Deadpool would have made there. I think Star War just feels a bit too weird and bizarre to them. The original trilogy never caught on there and Disney's obsession with callbacks and rehashing stuff is not helping.

If Rogue One was released before TFA then it would make much more, in fact TFA killed Rogue One's potential there. Not only is the space opera elements too bizarre, people don't understand the relationship between the OT characters and the First Order vs Resistance situation, and the lightsaber duels are just bad (I said this as a new fan who absolutely adore TFA but I grew up watch Chinese period dramas so I know bad swordfight when I see it). If people just watch Rogue One as a war movie it'll be much better received as opposed to the current mediocre reception.

 

[Nick Morton]

Passengers is kind of a Space Opera itself with a terrible third act so if that makes more money than Rogue One Internationally

LMAO

 

[Blitzkrieg]

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/817754916110397440

Gitesh Pandya
@GiteshPandya

#RogueOne drops from #1 spot FRI w/ $6.1M & may be headed for about $21M wknd. Big post-holiday slowdown, cume shd rise to around $476M.

 

[Iceman]

Bound to slow down now but looking forward to seeing the $500m up at some point soon.

 

[Mysteryman]

Let China eat up Transformers and fast cars. Don't pander do them when it comes to OUR #1 cinematic property.

Star Wars belongs to the world.

 

[JB33]

Star Wars belongs to the world.

Of course it does, but it isn't embraced like it is in North America and Britain, I'd say.

 

[Nick Morton]

I wonder if perhaps even overseas they dont want the PC / SJW stuff ruining entertainment ? They have always ate up our Blockbusters but Rogue One & Homecoming went out of their way for the SJW / PC crowd & maybe the International Audience is noticing it ? Look at Ghost In The Shell the only people whining about ScarJo are stupid ass Americans. The Homecoming Box Office is gonna be interesting Internationally based on Rogue One flopping

 

[Iceman]

I wonder if perhaps even overseas they dont want the PC / SJW stuff ruining entertainment ? They have always ate up our Blockbusters but Rogue One & Homecoming went out of their way for the SJW / PC crowd & maybe the International Audience is noticing it ? Look at Ghost In The Shell the only people whining about ScarJo are stupid ass Americans. The Homecoming Box Office is gonna be interesting Internationally based on Rogue One flopping

The Fast and the Furious cast is very diverse.

 

[Nick Morton]

The Fast and the Furious cast is very diverse.

That it is but no Mary Sues & no crazy Behind The Scenes problems etc perhaps they also love their Lightsabers & 10 seconds or so of a Lightsaber is not enough. Guess we will have a better idea based on how Homecoming does

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I still think it can hit that billion dollar global mark by the end of January. I mean this wasn't expected to be huge in China, anyway. Still, since Rogue One is at least moving at more than half the pace of what The Force Awakens moved at, I still think it can slowly but surely, by end of January or Super Bowl Weekend, hit that billion dollar mark.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

TFA and Avatar are the ideal movies for SJWs.

They're also among the three biggest movies of all time.

I don't think female and multiracial heroes negatively impact box office.

 

[Nick Morton]

TFA and Avatar are the ideal movies for SJWs.

They're also among the three biggest movies of all time.

I don't think female and multiracial heroes negatively impact box office.

Having the head of Lucas Films screaming at the top of her lungs

"We dont need male fans anymore"

Also probably did not help Star Wars & Star Trek are properties that lends itself very well to diversity but when the person in charge starts saying stuff like that fans will take notice. She essentially pulled a Sony with that non sense instead of letting stuff be

 

[Nick Morton]

Could be any reason why Rogue One is flopping Internationally lol

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

How it flopping overseas?

Star Wars has never been a monster overseas (outside of TFA) and Rogue One is a spin off with no jedi.