Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Hobgoblin]

No, I'm English, I speak English. And that saying doesn't mean that. Me saying "No one I know is interested in it" does not mean "No one will be interested in it".

And now your saying my friends are disconnected from society? Because they don't wanna see a frickin Star Trek film? Are you serious? Do you actually think before you type? WTF?



No, that's called defending myself. I'm not gonna let someone mug me off.

Either way, its done. Katie, that goes for you, too. Disagreeing is fine but this sort of thing is beneath all of you.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

All due respect, I'm not flaming. I'm not calling anyone names, I'm sticking up for myself. And I don't appreciate it when someone who is no better than me thinks he can mug me and my mates off.

But whatever, I'm done with it now. But if people try to mug me off, then they better expect me to defend myself.

 

[Heretic]

danoyse...correct me if Im wrong...Im not one of the nerds who keeps up with the industry that closely (and i respect those who do, they contribute greatly to this site)

But isnt a huge opening weekend usually followed by a massive drop???

 

[katie_girl09]

Either way, its done. Katie, that goes for you, too. Disagreeing is fine but this sort of thing is beneath all of you.

Huh?
With all due respect, I was simply trying to get things back on topic. If someone doesn't think that the movie will do well, that's fine. What I don't like are people who start random fights that go off-topic because they don't agree with someone. No offense, but I think your reprimanding me is unnecessary.

 

[danoyse]

danoyse...correct me if Im wrong...Im not one of the nerds who keeps up with the industry that closely (and i respect those who do, they contribute greatly to this site)

But isnt a huge opening weekend usually followed by a massive drop???

Usually, because these movies are so front-loaded they usually make most of their money in the first weekend. A 75% drop is ugly, but if it had a good first weekend, which this movie did (both here and overseas), it's survivable. It's still going to make money, then you figure in DVD sales and TV rights.

Here's the full quote from Box Office Mojo regarding the Friday drop:

X-Men Origins: Wolverine bled more than 75 percent in its second Friday, in a drop that was comparable to the last movie in the franchise, X-Men: The Last Stand. The prequel made an estimated $8.5 million, lifting its total to an excellent $111.1 million in eight days. If the picture follows a similar path as its predecessors, that would lead to a weekend gross of around $27 million.

It's going to go over $200 million worldwide this weekend, and it still hasn't opened in Mexico, where the X-Men movies have all done well (the premiere was delayed a few weeks due to the swine flu). Fox is the main distributor in the major foreign markets, so they still wind up seeing money on this, even if it's not as much as the previous films.

Star Trek was going to squash it this weekend regardless (and I saw ST this morning, it was pure awesomeness), so there's no real surprises here.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

You got a infraction too Katie?!?! You was doing the mods job for them.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The numbers are in: Box Office Mojo has called the film dropping a whopping 75% this weekend.

Holy crap, I never thought it would drop that much. Ouch!

 

[danoyse]

You got a infraction too Katie?!?! You was doing the mods job for them.

You're on thin ice right now, Ace. Just drop it.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

OK I have dropped it, just don't think it's right that she got an infraction for trying to play peace maker.

But anywayzzzzzzz...so this is gonna make 20-25 million this weekend?

 

[danoyse]

Katie did not get an infraction. Now get back on topic.

BOM is projecting about $27 million for the weekend. Let's see if that holds...I can never predict these things at all.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Cool. I suppose that is a bad drop. But to be fair, some films would be lucky to get that on their opening weekend anyway. I still think this film will be considered financially successful-ish. I doubt it cost more than 150million including marketing and everything.

 

[Heretic]

Since the movie was always going to get hammered this weekend, then I suppose the blame goes to the opening weekend...it was surely impressive, but in the end, not enough.

And yes the film will turn a nice profit, but so did Batman And Robin, and that sunk a franchise..its about diminishing returns...and this film will profit far less than the others.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

True. But to be fair, this film isn't at the level Batman and Robin was in terms of quality. Well, some people might think that, but I would strongly disagree with them.

And I was wondering, I can't remember now, what sort of competition did the other X movies have when they came out?

And I know this recession will make people want that escapism of the cinema. But when the movie season is as packed as this one, I doubt people will be readily splashing the cash too much.

I think it's silly to think any of this years big films will do mega money.

 

[danoyse]

Cool. I suppose that is a bad drop. But to be fair, some films would be lucky to get that on their opening weekend anyway. I still think this film will be considered financially successful-ish. I doubt it cost more than 150million including marketing and everything.

It's definitely not a pretty drop...but even BOM called the $111 million it made in the first 8 days an excellent total, so I guess in general it could have been a whole lot worse.

Between the leak, the swine flu situation in Mexico that delayed the premiere, the horrid reviews, I was fully expecting the theaters to be invaded by locusts over opening weekend just to continue this movie's bad luck, and it still managed to pull in $85 million here and another $60+ million worldwide. That's not bad at all.

I think Star Trek is going to be strong enough to keep the #1 spot over Angels & Demons next weekend. It will be interesting to see how that turns out.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Since the movie was always going to get hammered this weekend, then I suppose the blame goes to the opening weekend...it was surely impressive, but in the end, not enough.

And yes the film will turn a nice profit, but so did Batman And Robin, and that sunk a franchise..its about diminishing returns...and this film will profit far less than the others.

Which mean more cheaply made X-Men films... WOOOOT!!! Whatever... the sooner we let the crap films become even crappier the sooner the rights shift back to Marvel.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Well don't reports say the Deadpool and Magneto movies are actually being produced by Marvel, and just under the Fox banner? So maybe Fox will be taking a back seat for the next lot of films and just lining their pockets from the distribution and all that jazz?

 

[chaseter]

I will feel safer if Fox is out of the picture completely.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Well don't reports say the Deadpool and Magneto movies are actually being produced by Marvel, and just under the Fox banner? So maybe Fox will be taking a back seat for the next lot of films and just lining their pockets from the distribution and all that jazz?

No one knows how involved Marvel currently is or will be. Unless someone can enlighten us. All these so called fanboy "experts" seem to give contradictory information every time this comes up. Regardless, I can't say I won't be shocked if Fox hands Marvel more and more control and becomes less involved. That way they can slowly trim down their own costs while still making bank. But as far as rights... these are still Fox characters... Fox films. I'll be shocked if it becomes a "Marvel makes... and we distribute" type deal any time in the near future. But that's a possibilty certainly down the road. Marvel has it's hands full right now for the next three years so not until then I'd guess.

 

[danoyse]

Since the movie was always going to get hammered this weekend, then I suppose the blame goes to the opening weekend...it was surely impressive, but in the end, not enough.

Well, it's not at the end yet at all. It will keep going down after this weekend, obviously, especially with all the other releases coming out of the next few weeks that will continue to squash it, but it's still making money. Then you've got the video sales, and the money they make off the TV rights. There's all these different revenue streams that figure into it when all is said and done.

And other people can explain this better than me - but with a franchise, the studio also makes money off the other films in the series when a new film is released. The X-trilogy was released on blu-ray just in time for the Wolverine release, promoting them together can help boost those dvd sales so they're still making money off of the other movies as well as this one.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

No one knows how involved Marvel currently is or will be. Unless someone can enlighten us. All these so called fanboy "experts" seem to give contradictory information every time this comes up. Regardless, I can't say I won't be shocked if Fox hands Marvel more and more control and becomes less involved. That way they can slowly trim down their own costs while still making bank. But as far as rights... these are still Fox characters... Fox films. I'll be shocked if it becomes a "Marvel makes... and we distribute" type deal any time in the near future. But that's a possibilty certainly down the road. Marvel has it's hands full right now for the next three years so not until then I'd guess.

Well I dunno. Every single report I've seen from Variey to here says exactly the same things. That Shuler Donner and Marvel Studio's will be producing.

And if I was Fox, I would do it like that. Get someone else do all the hard work while you can put your feet up and get money from distribution and products and all that. Makes business sense to me. Maybe not a very noble thing to do, but hey, this is Fox we are talking about right?

My fingers and toes are crossed

 

[Heretic]

True. But to be fair, this film isn't at the level Batman and Robin was in terms of quality. Well, some people might think that, but I would strongly disagree with them.

And I was wondering, I can't remember now, what sort of competition did the other X movies have when they came out?

And I know this recession will make people want that escapism of the cinema. But when the movie season is as packed as this one, I doubt people will be readily splashing the cash too much.

I think it's silly to think any of this years big films will do mega money.

I think Wolverine is terrible...but nothing will be as bad as Batman And Robin.

And I dont think that competition really matters...when you look at it from afar, there was no reason for Star Trek to be this good, or generate this much excitement...and Terminator?? After a horrible part 3, and a tv series on the air that is wheezing and coughing due to sinking ratings (if its even still on the air...I dont watch much tv), no one really thought that film would be much either.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Yea fair points. I personally think Terminator will be the biggest earner out of the four or five big movies this yea though.

I mean, Christian Bale+New Terminator movie+cameo from Ahnuld=Box office gold surely?

But like I said, I don't think ANY film will make mega money this year.

 

[danoyse]

Don't forget Harry Potter - that's going to be huge.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Oh yea, can't forget Harry Potter, no matter how much I want to!

 

[Spider-Fan]

Potter rules

I hope Star Trek out grosses T4 myself. I'm still skeptical of T4