Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[def28]

Because of the leak, the economy and the summer competition, I don't see this movie doing the box office office that it should.

I think most people who are affected by the economy want to go out and see a huge summer movie to escape from reality. I think bars and theatres's do good during these times. Box office has been up I believe. Someone correct me if I am wrong.

If Fast and Furious can make 75 mil. Than so can Wolverine easily. Come on this movie has more hype than that. Most people who saw the leak are fans who are gonna see it in theatres anyways. It just got the film more attention imo.

 

[Jick]

Following some news, the leak actually helped the movie.
It was like free advertising. I think it got 75.000 plus downloads, and the majority liked and are aware that it is not finished, and will see the movie in theaters. It was like a free advertising.

 

[Figs]

I think most people who are affected by the economy want to go out and see a huge summer movie to escape from reality. I think bars and theatres's do good during these times. Box office has been up I believe. Someone correct me if I am wrong.

If Fast and Furious can make 75 mil. Than so can Wolverine easily. Come on this movie has more hype than that. Most people who saw the leak are fans who are gonna see it in theatres anyways. It just got the film more attention imo.

That's usually true.It's a lot cheaper to go to the movies and or bars in your area then take road trips somewhere or go to expensive amusement parks. That's why overall, movies have still been doing well even though people are hurting.

 

[night0205]

Or disney land...think about all the people who will be taking their family to movies instead of more expensive ways to build family relationships.

 

[def28]

That's usually true.It's a lot cheaper to go to the movies and or bars in your area then take road trips somewhere or go to expensive amusement parks. That's why overall, movies have still been doing well even though people are hurting.

Yeah, thats what I think. Even though its about $11 now for a flick its still one of the cheapest form of entertainment.

 

[icelemt38]

The movie industry has been WAY up this year compared to last year, so that economy is helping a lot like Def28 says.

 

[magus]

The economy will help movie sales if anything. Escapism is always up during times of crisis. Movie ticket sales were the highest ever during the Great Depression. Right now videogame sales are evidence of this.

 

[chaseter]

I really don't understand how the rant could hurt the film. Bale's a prick, old story. I still like his work. Not as much as I used to, but that has nothing to do with his personal life, but the fact that he's been pulling the same act in so many movies recently, that I've started to think can this guy do anything differently anymore.

I don't either...I wasn't the one who said it. It got him free publicity.

 

[BMM]

I think I'm going to have to reduce my $250+ million estimate to $200 million. The movie had better do well this weekend ($100 million) because, to be honest, I don't think it will have very good legs.

 

[Krimasen]

I think it will have good numbers this weekend in spite of the leak. It's no masterpiece, but it's good popcorn fun and that's what people want to see in the summer (too much thinking Dark Knight! lol).

 

[Downhere]

I think I'm going to have to reduce my $250+ million estimate to $200 million. The movie had better do well this weekend ($100 million) because, to be honest, I don't think it will have very good legs.

Yeah, it's legs are going to be horrible, mostly for the fact that each film has had worse legs than the previous one. I'd say a multiplier from 2-2.2 is in store. So, if it wants to secure $200 million domestically it needs to open at $100 million.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Its opening will be solid as Hell, no doubt about that. Fox, Jackman & Co. have been pushing this harder than any previous X-Men film to my knowledge. But I just can't see this hit $100+ million personally - my feelings lie more towards $70-$80 million; possibly as high as $90 million.

 

[GreenKToo]

I say a 120 mill dom take when all is said and done.

 

[Nivek]

I think Paranoia about the Flu may dampen the box office, but who knows...

 

[Crook]

Didn't you also say piracy would affect TDK's box office funny? I think you're wrong here too...

 

[Bim]

I'll be conservative and say 120-150 Million.

 

[terry78]

The flu ain't stopping nobody except hypochondriacs. A lot of schools are closed for a full week, yet they still are going out to the mall and ****.

 

[gap5ewl]

I really do wonder how well Star Trek will do, I for one will never see it but trekkies think its going to be huge. 2nd weekend is so important and Star Trek comes across as a movie with a very similar audience group so it might affect Wolverine quite a bit, I certainly hope not. I personally don't see Star Trek opening to more than 50M.

And I agree completely BMM, I think Wolverine has potential to eventually out gross X3 but won't open bigger than X3. I'm guessing around 80-90M opening but yea this year's competition seems very very tough compared to others.

Umm..it's been getting a lot of good reviews and many non-trekkie fans are looking forward to it. I bet it will do better than Wolverine do to word of mouth.

 

[CristiMAN]

The economy, the leak, the flu... Everything it's an excuse for the predictable bad BO. What about the main reason? It's a stinker of a film (37 at Rotten Tomatos now). It's really bad. I've seen it. And had low expectations. And still was worse than I expected. So much potential wasted. Such an amazing character in a sub quality film.

 

[hatebox]

Massive opening followed by massive drop-offs.

 

[Nivek]

Didn't you also say piracy would affect TDK's box office funny? I think you're wrong here too...

Well, obviously it did, if Mama Mia beat it's Box Office in places like england? And it didn't beat Titanic either, right?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I can see Fox using the flu and pirating as an excuse if this movie opens up less than expected and I'll call bulls**t on it.

I'm still sticking to a 90 mil opening and terrible legs that don't allow it to hit 200mil. Make no mistake though, I could easily see this movie opening with Fast and Furious numbers and then ending with less than X1 numbers. I'm hoping that it does the latter because it even isn't as good as the fun but mindless FF movies, X3 or TIH from last year.

 

[Deaths Head II]

I'm going to take a stab at it and say 80 million with a massive drop off in the second week.

 

[Figs]

Well, obviously it did, if Mama Mia beat it's Box Office in places like england? And it didn't beat Titanic either, right?

Look at the past films, Batman has never done all that well overseas. If this movie doesn't do well at the BO it will be due to bad word of mouth(even from the leaked version), not because people saw the leaked version and figured they didn't need to pay for it now. If a movie leaks but is good, good word of mouth will spread and the leak shouldn't effect it's BO that much. I think if this does poorly it will be simply because of bad word of mouth for being a subpar film.I'm guessing the Titanic part of your post was meant as a joke.

 

[sniktsnakt]

How much $$ did Fox pour into this mess?

In other words, what's the chances of them not breaking even?