Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[night0205]

It's nice to hear that some people like Australia, I thought it was great, I didn't follow it at all but saw it on DVD, but then when I went online everyone bashed it. I think Hugh Jackman is an amazing actor. Prestige, one of my favorite movies of all time. And I don't know who else could have played Wolverine...?

Oh but I hate Van Helsing!

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Oops. I thought I had clicked on a thread talking about the new Wolverine film's box office predictions.

 

[kedrell]

After actuals come in, I predict:

Friday: 34M
Saturday: 26M
Sunday: 17M

77M OW and less than a 2.0 multiplier for a total of 150M.

Yeah, that'd kill the franchise. Just as sure as FF2 did.

 

[night0205]

Awww Australia...
Ok, well I think 80M for first three days, and I think the legs will be average at best leading for the goal of 200M Domestically. Critics hate it, fanboys hate it, but the general audience is where all the money comes from. If I was fox, I'd be happy with 200M.

And I think this movie is a hell more attractive to people and better then FF.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

Awww Australia...
Ok, well I think 80M for first three days, and I think the legs will be average at best leading for the goal of 200M Domestically. Critics hate it, fanboys hate it, but the general audience is where all the money comes from. If I was fox, I'd be happy with 200M.

And I think this movie is a hell more attractive to people and better then FF.

Wait until Star Trek comes out. I can promise you Fox will feel the massive blow it will give Wolverine and will most likely destroy its legs.

 

[kedrell]

I think XO:W could fall all the way down nearly to a 20M 2nd weekend. Certainly no higher than a 25M 2nd weekend.

 

[night0205]

Wait until Star Trek comes out. I can promise you Fox will feel the massive blow it will give Wolverine and will most likely destroy its legs.

Yeah I think I agree with you...for the most part. But Star Trek is going to be unpredictable...it sounds like it's a good movie, but better movies don't always make more money. It will be interesting to see if Wolverine will be able to stand Star Trek.

 

[danoyse]

Wait until Star Trek comes out. I can promise you Fox will feel the massive blow it will give Wolverine and will most likely destroy its legs.

I think everyone knows that Star Trek is going to flatten Wolverine next weekend. Even Fox.

But considering the whole situation with the leak, if it winds up having as good a weekend as they're predicting (here and overseas), they've got to be plenty relieved right now.

 

[Spider-Vader]

Star Trek will go either way IMO. Either it'll be big or it'll bomb big time.

So far I've only heard people talk about who were Trek fans when they were kids.

 

[danoyse]

I think Star Trek is going to be huge. It looks terrific, and I was never a big Trek fan.

 

[Octoberist]

i think it'll be a hit as well.

 

[night0205]

I hope Star Trek does great...but I would like a Wolverine Sequal as well...sorry guys even under fox, I'm curious about Japan...and wonder if they can improve...on themselves. I would like Wolverine back at Marvel, but that will not happen. You have to admite that Wolverine is good comparibly to other fox films... Star Trekkies are the only ones I see complaining about Star Trek. "It's a star trek movie for people who don't really like star trek".

I'm a J.J. Abrams fan.

 

[FaT_tONle]

The Japan movie would basically do Watchmen numbers... it's not a story that interests the mass public. You want a Wolverine sequel to make money, get Omega Red in there, bring back Deathstryke whom general audiences like and are already familiar with wtihout getting into great lengths regarding the entire backstory. Maybe even work Fox and Marvel could collaborate together to get some cross overs going... dare I say Hulk? Never will happen in a million years... even Omega Red is a LONG shot... but the Japan story doesn't have commercial appeal IMO... if it even gets green lit that is.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

I think everyone knows that Star Trek is going to flatten Wolverine next weekend. Even Fox.

But considering the whole situation with the leak, if it winds up having as good a weekend as they're predicting (here and overseas), they've got to be plenty relieved right now.

As I said before, leaks don't really hurt a film unless it's really bad. Wolverine was going to get decent numbers regardless. I heard people walking in the theatre talking about howthey had seen the bootleg leak of the film.

Considering how it's receiving mixed word of mouth at the moment that will possibly hurt its legs, also, having Star Trek come out isn't going to help either. Although I did see another sell out for Obsessed tonight so what happens if that's number one again?

 

[Spider-Vader]

The Japan move would basically do Watchmen numbers... it's not a story that interests the mass public. You want a Wolverine sequel to make money, get Omega Red in there, bring back Deathstryke whom general audiences like and are already familiar with wtihout getting into great lengths regarding the entire backstory. Maybe even work Fox and Marvel could collaborate together to get some cross overs going... dare I say Hulk? Never will happen in a million years... even Omega Red is a LONG shot... but the Japan story doesn't have commercial appeal IMO... if it even gets green lit that is.

Who knows? Maybe Fox will open their eyes & see the huge numbers IM2 makes & say "Maybe we should start allowing cross-overs". Hulk vs Wolverine would be a huge hit, especially if Marvel had creative control & Fox just slapped their ugly name on it.

 

[icelemt38]

The Japan move would basically do Watchmen numbers... it's not a story that interests the mass public. You want a Wolverine sequel to make money, get Omega Red in there, bring back Deathstryke whom general audiences like and are already familiar with wtihout getting into great lengths regarding the entire backstory. Maybe even work Fox and Marvel could collaborate together to get some cross overs going... dare I say Hulk? Never will happen in a million years... even Omega Red is a LONG shot... but the Japan story doesn't have commercial appeal IMO... if it even gets green lit that is.

This is what I fear, but at the same time I hope that this would be the last of Wolvie we ever see because Hugh ain't getting any younger. I think the Japan story(which I don't know much about but heard from people) would make for a very fresh, new, and story wise probably good movie. But in terms of drawing in crowds, it will be Hugh all on his lonesome with no big name supporting cast, that's unless they totally change up the story, which could still happen but having a mostly foreign cast and Hugh, that would be interesting to see how well it does in the box office.

 

[FaT_tONle]

If Fox was so gaga about a sequel they'd greenlight this thing by Monday and fast track for a 2011 release. But they won't do that because Marvel already has three films in 2011. Personally I think a Japan story with a modest budget (100 millionish tops) can do decent numbers. But if you are talking 2012... what are the chances Jackman does a whopping SIXTH movie by like 2014/2015. He'll be almost 50 by then. That's why if they decide to do a sequel try to get as many characters in there as possible speaking from a studio standpoint, because I am certainly not banking on this becoming a trilogy.

 

[Downhere]

Saturday Number is estimated at around 31 million dollars. That means if you take out the midnight showings from Friday it stayed flat/slightly increased which bodes extremely well for the overall weekend. 85-90 million seems in order depending on how it holds on Sunday.

 

[icelemt38]

If Fox was so gaga about a sequel they'd greenlight this thing by Monday and fast track for a 2011 release. But they won't do that because Marvel already has three films in 2011. Personally I think a Japan story with a modest budget (100 millionish tops) can do decent numbers. But if you are talking 2012... what are the chances Jackman does a whopping SIXTH movie by like 2014/2015. He'll be almost 50 by then. That's why if they decide to do a sequel try to get as many characters in there as possible speaking from a studio standpoint, because I am certainly not banking on this becoming a trilogy.

I really agree with this, I don't know how the Japan story is really so I don't know how other characters would fit but I would think that would be the last of Wolverine because Hugh will be getting too old. From what I've heard, it seems like a very intriguing story that warrants a movie, and you're right, I don't think the budget would be all that much so whatever it makes should be decent and enough to recoup, especially if the movie is of substance.

 

[Deaths Head II]

If Hugh starts getting too old they might make Old Man Logan/Days of Future Past Logan/Something along those lines.

Oh yeah, and they can also do the next two films back-to-back.

 

[Deaths Head II]

Double.

 

[night0205]

Fox is hurting financially, because of their poorly made, less effective movies. X-men is a franchise that makes money. What else does Fox have anymore?

 

[icelemt38]

If Hugh starts getting too old they might make an Old Man Logan/Days of Future Past Logan/Something along those lines.

Oh yeah, and they can also do the next two films back-to-back.

I've read that that's a really good storyline for a movie too, so maybe they might go that direction. It'll be interesting to see how all of this shakes out, for now there will definitely be a sequel and it will probably be Japan.

 

[BMM]

Fox is hurting financially, because of their poorly made, less effective movies. X-men is a franchise that makes money. What else does Fox have anymore?

If it does well, Fox will have Avatar.

 

[craigdbfan]

Looks like X-Men Origins: Wolverine will be the true last stand when it comes to the 20th Century Fox Owned X-Men movie franchise.

I'll always remember the good times.

But I honestly hope we don't get any more X-Men related movies made under the Rothman managed Fox. Thats just me, but I rather make do without any X-Men movies in a while if they are going to be on par with Wolverine.

Here's hoping Marvel can get back the filming rights somehow. It would be nice if Fox would agree to only distribute the film while Marvel handles the film making.