Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Hound89]

Sweet Deadpool is getting his Movie For sure!

 

[BMM]

I'm surprised people are, well, surprised by the opening weekend performance. I expected the movie to open big, but I also expect it to be flattened by Star Trek and the rest of the May line-up. I think it will be done by Terminator Salvation and could even have trouble surpassing $200 million. We'll see.

 

[Sentinel X]

I was hoping this movie would bomb terribly so Fox could either give the rights away or at least TRY to make a decent movie the next time around. As long as they keep making money they will keep doing crappy blockbusters. I was hoping they learned a good lesson with dragonball but wolverine just probably encouraged them to continue butchering films

 

[Hound89]

Wolverine wasn't that bad dammit

 

[Angamb]

but it's a bit stupid from them accepting a boxoffice lower than Ironman, Dark Knight, etc, when the X-men films could have the same numbers if done better than X3 and Wolverine.

 

[dark_b]

I was hoping this movie would bomb terribly so Fox could either give the rights away or at least TRY to make a decent movie the next time around. As long as they keep making money they will keep doing crappy blockbusters. I was hoping they learned a good lesson with dragonball but wolverine just probably encouraged them to continue butchering films

FOX already had bombs. and they didnt change.

they wont change.

 

[Downhere]

but it's a bit stupid from them accepting a boxoffice lower than Ironman, Dark Knight, etc, when the X-men films could have the same numbers if done better than X3 and Wolverine.

Well, considering not even the awesome X2 could break 250 million plus domestically shows that the X-Men Franchise has a limit to it's box office potential. So, these films will never reach the heights of the movies you mentioned.

 

[superion]

Iron Man may be a some what realistic goal for a X movie. No comics movie will ever touch the Dark Knight not even the Dark Knight sequel for obvious reasons. It is unrealistic to expect any comic movie to make Dark Knight money.

 

[JP]

Well, I'm not surprised by the numbers. Bring on First Class!

 

[Doctor Jones]

No to First Class. It's just to cash off of X-Men. "Let's do younger versions!"

Put attention on a GOOD Wolverine sequel. I really don't care about Magneto. And that wouldn't do as well.

 

[Hound89]

No to First Class. It's just to cash off of X-Men. "Let's do younger versions!"

Put attention on a GOOD Wolverine sequel. I really don't care about Magneto. And that wouldn't do as well.

First class is gonna be about Rouge and Iceman and the like

 

[Spider-Vader]

Iron Man may be a some what realistic goal for a X movie. No comics movie will ever touch the Dark Knight not even the Dark Knight sequel for obvious reasons. It is unrealistic to expect any comic movie to make Dark Knight money.

Two words- The Avengers.

 

[DACrowe]

Eh. Those are solid numbers but nothing special, if anyone wants to see Magneto, Deadpool or whatever else, it needs to make $200 million at least.

I thought it was okay. I still haven't seen it in theaters but I saw the workprint. I find it odd it has all this hate. It was better than X3 which fans defended, so watching it in that mindset made it seem relatively enjoyable, if mediocre.

Oh well. I hope Hugh's career does well, now that it looks like Wolverine is behind him at this point.

 

[terry78]

For every bomb Fox has, some rom-com or random anomly hits big, so they are pretty much always in the black. No need to change their corporate objectives.

 

[SP1D3RxV3N0M]

First class is gonna be about Rouge and Iceman and the like

Not true, that was an ideia they had before First Class and it was going to be called New or Young X-men.

 

[Angamb]

Well, considering not even the awesome X2 could break 250 million plus domestically shows that the X-Men Franchise has a limit to it's box office potential. So, these films will never reach the heights of the movies you mentioned.

X3 opening weekend was the sign that it could have reached a really big boxoffice.

The problem was the quality of the movie. If it was better, be sure it would have passed 300 million domestically.

 

[gap5ewl]

Well, considering not even the awesome X2 could break 250 million plus domestically shows that the X-Men Franchise has a limit to it's box office potential. So, these films will never reach the heights of the movies you mentioned.

X3 made 235 mill domestically and 460 mill in worldwide total. That's pretty damn impressive, especially for a mediocre movie. It's only behind Batman and Spider-Man in terms of box office sucess for a comic book franchise.

 

[Downhere]

X3 opening weekend was the sign that it could have reached a really big boxoffice.

The problem was the quality of the movie. If it was better, be sure it would have passed 300 million domestically.

Considering X-Men 2, which was universally praised, and opened up at an impressive 86 million in 2003 couldn't muster a multiplier over 2.5, I don't think a "great" X3 would have done that much better than what the current X3 did at the box office. The X-Men franchise, while doing well for itself, just doesn't have the pull to go beyond a certain range. I honestly don't know why that is but the multiplier's for each movie show this to be true.

Now, I'm not saying the X-Men Franchise box office hasn't been impressive but it hasn't been at the level of the usual suspects such as Spidey, Batman, and Iron Man.

 

[dark_b]

X3 opening weekend was the sign that it could have reached a really big boxoffice.

The problem was the quality of the movie. If it was better, be sure it would have passed 300 million domestically.

this is so true. the opening was hgue. now imagine a quality movie that has good legs and good word of mouth. this would be over IM numbers.

so if you think about it FOX could have a big moneymaker. but hey why should they? right? its not like they do movie for money

 

[gap5ewl]

I think if X3 was good, it probably would've done over $250. I think the reason X2 didn't go past 250 was because of the following: The summer blockbuster thing really began picking up speed until after X2's release. Movies that were usually more fun with less serious plots at the time, such as Pirates and Spider-Man ended up making a lot of money. Up to X2, the film series usually had a more cerebral, thinking tone and not a lot of CGI stuff so people probably weren't planning on seeing it too many times. I think now that the Dark Knight was massive though, we might now see a bigger audience acceptance for summer blockbusters that make you think. If X2 was released today, it might have a chance of being bigger than it was in 2003. Still it made a really good box office performance and the franchise combined has made well over a billion.

 

[Downhere]

I think if X3 was good, it probably would've done over $250. I think the reason X2 didn't go past 250 was because of the following: The summer blockbuster thing really began picking up speed until after X2's release. Movies that were usually more fun with less serious plots at the time, such as Pirates and Spider-Man ended up making a lot of money. Up to X2, the film series usually had a more cerebral, thinking tone and not a lot of CGI stuff so people probably weren't planning on seeing it too many times. I think now that the Dark Knight was massive though, we might now see a bigger audience acceptance for summer blockbusters that make you think. If X2 was released today, it might have a chance of being bigger than it was in 2003. Still it made a really good box office performance and the franchise combined has made well over a billion.

That is totally not true. The summer blockbuster thing has been big since the 80's. It picked up speed long before X2 came around.

 

[Celestial]

From what I remember, X2 got hit by Matrix Returns (sorry, I can't remember its name). That had a huge build up, strong reviews and a bigger box office. It's funny how everyone's forgotten it.

 

[danoyse]

That is totally not true. The summer blockbuster thing has been big since the 80's. It picked up speed long before X2 came around.

The 70s, actually. First summer blockbuster was Jaws, followed by Star Wars in 1977. By the 80s, summer blockbusters were in full swing.

I remember, I was seeing them all back then too.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

From what I remember, X2 got hit by Matrix Returns (sorry, I can't remember its name). That had a huge build up, strong reviews and a bigger box office. It's funny how everyone's forgotten it.

The Matrix Reloaded got mixed/negative reviews and toxic word-of-mouth.

 

[danoyse]

It is rare that ANY movie studio releases it's budget to the public. They won't be doing anything illegal in term of taxes etc but it is rare for a studio to publicly say what the overall budget came to. Sony weren't too keen on admitting they spent $200+ on Spider-Man 3.

Fox should have a better year this year, with Taken being a hit, Wolverine, Ice Age 3, Night at he Museum, Alvin and the Chipmunks, Avatar, plus the smaller films.

They don't release those kinds of budget numbers. What you see on places like BoxOfficeMojo are estimates at best, and they don't break out what their projections were or how the profit percentages are broken out. I read another forum with a few industry connected folks (and industry connected for decades, I might add) who post all the time and they are always jumping on anyone who uses BOM as a definitive reference. They're fairly obnoxious about it too.

Overseas it looks like it's doing well, and then when you figure in the DVD/video sales in the next few months, I think after all the drama the movie will be OK after all.