Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[alexlachiusa]

I'm happy about the box office results, means there is more of a chance that we'll see a Deadpool movie.

 

[night0205]

lol the most rediculous thing about this thread is the 5 people who voted that wolverine would only make 0-50M total.

 

[icelemt38]

If this means anything, I'm female, and went to Wolverine with 4 other female friends, and all of us are right in the demographic for this type of movie. All my friends loved Wolverine and after wards I asked if any of them were going to go see Star Trek and all of them said no and don't have any interest in watching it what so ever. And early polls have showed that women are not interested in seeing Star Trek at all and that might hurt it, while the audience split in Wolverine is almost exactly down the middle. I still think it will make a big impact on Wolvie's 2nd weekend BO but as far as how much Star Trek will make, I think it's really hard to call at this point.

 

[night0205]

This is a strange thing to think about...because Star Trek is probably going to be big with people who post on a superhero forum...but you gotta think about everyone else. I think Star Trek is going to be very unpredictable...does anyone know what the guess of 3-day opening has been?

I'm going to have to say, if wolverine makes it to 200M, then Fox will be happy cows.

 

[Celestial]

I think there was a prediction of around $50m based on tracking data. That's in line with Superman Returns and Batman Begins both of which ended up at around $200m.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Less than 30 miilion next week is what I am banking on... finishing around 150-160 millionish. WW will push it to 300 ish... probably good enough for more films but not quite good enough for long term potential.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

What part of I'm not going by Rotten Tomatoes don't some fans understand? None of the X-films have had good legs, not one of them.

The Incredible Hulk fans said (I liked the flick BTW) that it would have great legs and guess what? It didn't! A 2.4 multiplier is not good legs, it's not as s**tty as the first Hulk movie's legs but the legs weren't good at all.

Hancock proved last year that the critics didn't matter when it scored 39% on RT and actually had legs.

Based on the reviews the X2 fans thought that it would have a better multiplier than it did but it didn't. It's not about what you or I like it's about the average moviegoer and although none of us can tell the future I think that it's a safe bet that X-Men Orgins will not be having these Spider-Man, BB, TDK or Iron Man style legs.

If this movie drops under 60% I will be surprised, if it drops under 55% I will be astonished, if it drops under 50% I will shut my big fat mouth up about it's boxoffice numbers...because I will be dead from shock.

Hell I think the bestcase opening for StarTrek is 65mil but right now I'm predicting 50-55mil for it. StarTrek isn't going to kill Wolverine or anything else most likely, Wolverine will kill itself.

 

[Dark Victory]

A lot of women saw Wolverine to see Hugh Jackman's body and wanted to see him kick butt. The GA probably thinks Star Trek is nerdy.

 

[Dev]

I know I'm just a noob but I don't think women like to see ppl get their butts kicked in movies they like those boring romantic type movies.

 

[icelemt38]

A lot of women saw Wolverine to see Hugh Jackman's body and wanted to see him kick butt. The GA probably thinks Star Trek is nerdy.

Yep my point exactly, I don't know about wanting to see him kick butt but definitely Hugh was a factor in drawing in the girls, and having Ryan Reynolds and Taylor Kitsch there doesn't hurt either. My friends also loved the fact that Wolvie did everything because of love (gag all you want boys) so yea, they don't want to see Star Trek at all and for the reasons stated above by Dark Victory.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Hancock had legs because it was Will SMith and it was a different take on a superheroe film... something like Watchmen, where half the critics panned it... had terrible legs. Reception matters some times.

And I would not be at all shocked if Angels and Demons opens at number 2 in 2 weeks.

 

[Kurosawa]

It's unfortunate that it did this well, as it's a terrible movie. Also this means the series is that much farther away from being rebooted and therefore possibly done right. Great for Jackman fangirls and Wolverine fanboys, bad for fans of the other X-Men.

Well, people are idiots.

 

[Dev]

Do you guys think that Fox will:
A. Listen to the fans and reboot the X - Men franchise and do it justice?
B. Continue the current series with more spinoffs like Wolverine 2, magneto etc..?
C. Let the rights expire and Marvel gets back their X Men property?
D. None of the above.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's unfortunate that it did this well, as it's a terrible movie. Also this means the series is that much farther away from being rebooted and therefore possibly done right. Great for Jackman fangirls and Wolverine fanboys, bad for fans of the other X-Men.

Well, people are idiots.

Not idiots. Do I get ever-so slightly annoyed when a fantastic movie like Watchmen hardly makes over 100mil while a s **tty movie like Wolverine opens with an estimated 87mil? Yeah but it's the way things are. *shrugs*

Dev, I think that no matter how hard this movie drops Fox will make a sequel.

It's going to make money for the studio...it was always going to make money for the studio, I was just wishing that it wasn't.

 

[Nivek]

remember people, this is a general audience that watches those movies like Scary Movie, Meet the Spartans, White Chicks, Are We There Yet?, and makes the Fast and Furious franchise a continued hit. But they balk at a time tested story and some CGI blue nudity...

 

[night0205]

Yeah but...those movies didn't make hundreds of millions...

 

[FaT_tONle]

Now Watchmen is a time tested movie? Couple of months must be an eternity...

 

[chaseter]

So what are the weekend numbers for this thing?

 

[night0205]

As far as I know still...87

 

[Spider-Vader]

I don't think Wolverine will make a huge drop next weekend, unless 'Star Trek' does pretty good.

 

[Nivek]

Yeah but...those movies didn't make hundreds of millions...

Um, yes they did, that was my point. Hell, Fast & Furious was making decent money weeks after release, and we are talking about a film that ended with a wacky race through mine shafts for crying out loud...

 

[chaseter]

I hope this doesn't break 150 million but I highly doubt it breaks 200 million.

 

[narrows101]

Interesting statistics.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118003126.html?categoryid=13&cs=1&nid=2564

'Wolverine' claws to top of box office
Prequel nabs record bow for Fox with $87 mil
By PAMELA MCCLINTOCK

Scoring an important win for the franchise, 20th Century Fox's prequel "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" grossed an estimated $87 million from 4,099 runs to mark the studio's best-ever non-holiday bow at the domestic box office.

Kicking off the summer tentpole season, "Wolverine" also displayed sharp claws overseas as it grossed $73 million from more than 9,100 runs in 101 markets for a worldwide opening of $160 million. In many individual markets, "Wolverine" saw the best numbers of any film in the franchise.

Domestically, "Wolverine" scored the second-best domestic bow after "X Men: The Last Stand," which opened to $102.8 million over Memorial Day weekend in 2006. "Last Stand" and "Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith," which grossed $108.4 million over Memorial Day weekend in 2005, are Fox's two highest openers.

In other domestic B.O. action, enough females showed up to give Warner Bros. and New Line's romantic comedy "Ghosts of Girlfriends Past" a solid opening gross of $15.3 million from 3,175 screens, mirroring the $14.8 million bow of Sony's "Made of Honor" on the same weekend a year ago.
Roadside Attraction's 3-D toon "The Battle for Terra," however, wasn't able to make the cut. Family film grossed an estimated $1.1 million from 1,159 runs to come in No. 12.

Domestic B.O. revenues were essentially flat with the same frame a year ago, when Paramount's "Iron Man" opened to $102.1 million. The ability to keep pace with last year is attributed to the new entries and a steely crop of holdovers.

Sony's "Obsessed" fell 57% in its second frame, but still pulled in $12.2 million for a cume of $47 million in its first 10 days. Warner Bros./New Line's "17 Again" followed "Obsessed" with a gross of $6.4 million in its third weekend for a cume of $48.5 million. DreamWorks Animation/Paramount's "Monsters vs. Aliens" fell just 32% in its sixth sesh to $5.8 million for a domestic cume of $182.4 million.

"Wolverine's" bow is a key victory for Fox, Marvel Entertainment and star Hugh Jackman, since it likely keeps the franchise alive.

Fox senior VP of distribution Chris Aronson called Jackman the "X-factor."

"Audiences have a huge appetite for Hugh Jackman, for the character Wolverine, and the Wolverine that Hugh has created," Aronson said.

"Almost half of the moviegoers polled said the film was better than expected."

Film, directed by Gavin Hood, also played more broadly than some box office observers had expected. Women made up 47% of the audience, and generally gave the film a higher score than men. Film drew a slightly older audience, with 52% over the age of 25.

"Wolverine" declined 15% from Friday to Saturday, a relatively small decline compared to other fanboy-driven films.

"Wolverine" wasn't able to match the opening gross of "Iron Man" because the latter drew a younger audience.

Fox co-financed "Wolverine" with Dune Entertainment. Pic cost $130 million to produce after Australian tax credits, meaning the film's worldwide bow has exceeded the budget. That doesn't include a hefty marketing spend for the worldwide launch.

"Wolverine" all but matched the $76.3 million international launch of "X-Men: The Last Stand" when accounting for fluctuating currency exchange rates.

Pic had plenty to overcome, beginning with piracy. A month ago, a working copy of the pic was posted on the Internet. Studio says the piracy could have cost the film as much as $20 million in its debut.

There seemed to be minimal damage in those countries where piracy is rampant. Film still finished No. 1 in many of those territories, including China, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore. In Germany, "Wolverine" grossed $4 million, the lowest of the four "X-Men" films. It also came in second in South Korea at $3 million.

But in Singapore and Malaysia, "Wolverine" marked the biggest Fox opening of all time, earning $1.6 million and $1.2 million, respectively. Pic grossed $990,000 in the Philippines, the top opening of the year.

Germany and Singapore in particular are known as hotbeds of illegal movie downloads.

"Wolverine's" international appeal was impressive, and virtually matched the opening of the "X-Men: The Last Stand."

The U.K led the way with $9.8 million -- the best Brit launch of the year. That was followed by France ($7.4), Australia ($5.7 million), Spain ($5.5 million), Brazil ($4.8 million), Russia ($3.7 million) and Italy ($3.5 million).

In addition to piracy, Fox also had to contend with the flu epidemic, which closed down cinemas in Mexico City and other Mexican cities.

Fox postponed the launch of "Wolverine" in Mexico until May 14, situation permitting. Mexico is an important territory for the "X-Men" franchise.

As with any franchise that sees multiple installments, "Wolverine" had to pass the muster with fanboys. Movie got so-so reviews, but it was still able to win over its core demo -- at least on opening weekend.
On Friday, "Wolverine" will have to contend with Paramount's "Star Trek," which opens day and date. (Par has postponed the Mexican launch until June 5.)

 

[chaseter]

Women made up 47% of the audience, and generally gave the film a higher score than men. Film drew a slightly older audience, with 52% over the age of 25.

Whoever said to me that women were not a target audience for this film I want to laugh in their face and say HA! You know who you are.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't think Wolverine will make a huge drop next weekend, unless 'Star Trek' does pretty good.

Why do you think that the X-Men series will suddenly have good legs?