Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[topdog1]

Star Trek will drop 65% next week as well and no one is debating its word of mouth. That's the nature of the beast. Wolverine did great for a film that's been on the Internet for the past month as well.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

No way was this movies budget much more than 150 million, including marketing and all that jazz.

 

[chaseter]

Just comparable with the over 50% drops of the other films in the series, especially/specifically The Last Stand.

What does that tell you about the quality of those two films

Most big summer tent poles are front loaded so they experience big drops the second week, especially when another big movie opens the second weekend. X3 lost the second weekend to the Break Up...that is just sad.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Star Trek will drop 65% next week as well and no one is debating its word of mouth. That's the nature of the beast. Wolverine did great for a film that's been on the Internet for the past month as well.

Star Trek will drop 65% next weekend because Wolverine did? Thats what it sounds like you are saying. I'm going to wait for the weekday numbers to pass judgement.

Every movie isn't going to drop 65% because a movie you liked did.

 

[Angamb]

I suppose I'll accept a Wolverine 2 being made... but I really really hope Fox doesn't do Wolverine 3.

Two solo Wolverine movies are more than enough.

The x-men are a group of characters, three Logan movies would be an insult, for me.

It's time for team movies.

 

[topdog1]

No way was this movies budget much more than 150 million, including marketing and all that jazz.

Fox is on record at $130 million budget and tie-ins helped cut advertising cost. Like I posted before, it's all gravy from this point forward and that includes DVD sales and cable right revenue. I know haters wanted this movie to fail but it's already a pretty big hit. I, for one, am glad. Bring on Wolverine 2 or Magneto.

 

[chaseter]

No way was this movies budget much more than 150 million, including marketing and all that jazz.

They haven't made it public for a reason. It was filled with some big set pieces, a lot of cgi, and some big action sequences so I wouldn't doubt it. Hugh also got I think $20 mil for this as well as producer earnings.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

A lot of cheap looking CGI yea. Who was the special effects company working on it? Not a big one.

 

[topdog1]

Star Trek will drop 65% next weekend because Wolverine did? Thats what it sounds like you are saying. I'm going to wait for the weekday numbers to pass judgement.

Has nothing to do with Wolverine. Fan frontloaded films like Star Trek will most always tumble to that degree from here on out. The game has changed so much lately. We'll all see a week from now. (I liked Star Trek and have given it good word of mouth myself)

 

[Project862006]

star trek is 96% on RT while wolverine is 37% stare trek getting rave review while wolverine getting sub par review star trek is great wolverine isn't

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Has nothing to do with Wolverine. Fan frontloaded films like Star Trek will most always tumble to that degree from here on out. The game has changed so much lately. We'll all see a week from now. (I liked Star Trek and have given it good word of mouth myself)

Your 65% prediction makes no sense what-so-ever. If the movie's weekdays point that way I will agree with you but I'm not going predict a 65% drop for this movie because most blockbusters are frontloaded.

I could easily see a 55% drop because of Frontloadedness but 65% would mean bad word of mouth along with it being fronloaded. Now maybe it does have bad word of mouth but I'm going to take a wait and see attitude.

You are making excuses for Wolverine.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Why would he be making excuses for Wolverine? I doubt the box office success of this film really effects his life

He is presenting an opinion. You disagree with it, no biggy. Neither of you can prove anything about Trek at this moment in time.

 

[dark_b]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Wolverine's drop is disasterous...as we all knew it would be. I wonder how the studio is going to spin this? If that estimate holds it's a worst drop than X3. Clearly the competition and bad word of mouth killed it.

i hope they are smart enough to not say that the leaked workprint is the reason.
a drop like this after 1 week has nothing to do with a leaked workprint 1 month ago.

 

[Man of Tomorrow]

The fact is Star Trek has GOOD Word of Mouth.

Wolverine has BAD Word of Mouth.


And it will show...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Why would he be making excuses for Wolverine? I doubt the box office success of this film really effects his life

He is presenting an opinion. You disagree with it, no biggy. Neither of you can prove anything about Trek at this moment in time.

I never said that I could prove anything as I said I was taking a wait and see attitude towards the films second weekend.

Movies aren't a big deal in general but we agrue about them on messageboards.

His opinion is wham bam one, he hasn't taken the time to explain exactly why he feels Star Trek will drop 65% other than saying "fan based movies are frontloaded!" I simply want a better explaination on why he thinks that. He might be right but I still wan't a better explaination.

I like talking about boxoffice so you guys should have known better than to egage me. lol

 

[dark_b]

Has nothing to do with Wolverine. Fan frontloaded films like Star Trek will most always tumble to that degree from here on out. The game has changed so much lately. We'll all see a week from now. (I liked Star Trek and have given it good word of mouth myself)

the movie is for the masses. almost everyone said this. no way will and is ST doing this money because of those start trek fans.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Fair enough.

But I kinda agree with him. I think all the big movies this year are gonna be hit and run, big opening movies. But I don't think any of them will have brilliant legs.

I know people say the bad economy might make people want to go to the cinema more for escapism, and I would agree, to an extent.

But this isn't just a bad economy, this is a major recession. And I think with this summer season packed out, people ain't gonna be splashing too much cash on repeat viewings and what not.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So there is no chance that Wolverine had bad word of mouth?..sigh. It's because the economy and movies being frontloaded in general.

Again...sigh.

I think i'm done. You are dead set in your outlook of things. Personally I don't think that every movie this summer is dropping 68% in it's second weekend but you are free to think that.

For the record I never thought that this summer was going to be as big as last years.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

What the **** are you talking about? I never said it wasn't because bad word of mouth. It's pretty obvious it has bad word of mouth, no one can deny that.

I'm making a separate point that I don't think ANY movie will do mega money this year. And I explained my reasons why.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

What the **** are you talking about? I never said it wasn't because bad word of mouth. It's pretty obvious it has bad word of mouth, no one can deny that.

I'm making a separate point that I don't think ANY movie will do mega money this year. And I explained my reasons why.

Transformers 2 will easily make over 300mil and maybe 400mil and Harry Potter is a lock for over 275mil. That is mega money.

Now if you mean that we won't have a 500 million dollar movie I agree with you.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Well yea, I personally don't think we'll see any films hitting the 400 million mark this year in the US.

Not using that as an excuse for Wolverine or any of those other movies. I'm just saying I don't think this year can be considered the same playing field as previous years you know? So basically, comparing the drops of the movies this year to other years is moot, IMO.

 

[chaseter]

I don't think any film will pass 400 million domestic this year either.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Glad we agree

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm not predicting that but Transformers is a lock to make over 300mil. I actually want T2 to fail but thats not happening.

No hard feelings Knaves. I like a good boxoffice arguement.

 

[Superhero 101]

Well i think that the film has potential reaching 300 million maybe another 40 million domestic and another 10-20 million Foreign.
My Grades
X-men B+
X2 A
X3 B-
XO: Wolverine B