Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Hugh'sMrs]

That's not correct. It's been seven years since a Trek movie, the Trekkie fanbase is massive, levels of anticipation were massive, and on top of that the reviews were favourable. A strong opening weekend was guaranteed whether the film was good or not, purely based on anticipation for this revival of the franchise.

Opening weekends do not necessarily mean the film is unanimously considered fabulous. Need I remind you of X3's huge debut weekend?

Someone told me that the Trekkies (or Trekkers) had vowed not to see the film for two weeks and one day as some sort of protest. If even a small percentage of them hold to that pact, it means the fanbase isn't included in that opening weekend box office.

 

[X-Maniac]

Someone told me that the Trekkies (or Trekkers) had vowed not to see the film for two weeks and one day as some sort of protest. If even a small percentage of them hold to that pact, it means the fanbase isn't included in that opening weekend box office.

Really? Trekkies have been all over the net talking about the film, loads of them were even interviewed as soon as the film opened. But, if you say so...

 

[Hugh'sMrs]

Don't try and by argumentative for the sake of it.

I said someone told me that. I don't follow the ST franchise so I don't personally know anything about this supposed pact. The person who told me is a fan and he went to a Thursday night screening.


I'm just saying it would be interesting if the zealous fans are holding off.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

They are holding off for two weeks to protest what? The "unfairness" of box office results? If so...

 

[kedrell]

It is interesting to note that this year will be the first year since 2001 that a comic-book/superhero movie does not earn at least 200M domestic.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Yea I was talking about a possible comic book movie "burnout" a little while back. Can't really prove it yet, but I was thinking about it.

 

[kedrell]

I think the writer's strike had more to do with it than burnout.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

HAHA good point

 

[Wiseman]

It is interesting to note that this year will be the first year since 2001 that a comic-book/superhero movie does not earn at least 200M domestic.

Transformers counts as a comic-book movie and it'll make over 200 million domestic.

 

[FaT_tONle]

That's why there is shaping up to be a massive log jam in 2011-2012 for comic book/SH films. If not for the writers strike they could have evened it out more.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

"Not too bad"?

What are you talking about? I'm all for loving the film if that's your opinion. Fine. But let's not sugarcoat the truth here. A 69% drop is TERRIBLE--especially when you consider all the advantages that this film had. No matter how you slice or dice this, the film has bombed critically--and it will finish around Fantastic Four numbers by time all of these upcoming blockbusters have arrived in the next few weeks.

And I'm willing to bet good money that Star Trek won't suffer a similar fall this weekend--and that's in the face of Angels & Demons.

Dead on.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I don't see what "advantages" this film had though. It had DISadvantages more like.

 

[Hugh'sMrs]

They are holding off for two weeks to protest what? The "unfairness" of box office results? If so...

No, they're upset about the reboot and change to some of the canon.

Personally, I thought the concept worked fine. There were enough nods to the original but with some fresh ideas as well. I came out of the theater excited for the next installment. Some people are even saying they'd like to see it turned into a weekly TV series.

 

[I Am The Knight]

I thought it wasn't a reboot per se, but rather a different continuity?

 

[LastSunrise1981]

I don't see what "advantages" this film had though. It had DISadvantages more like.

What disadvantages? Are you making excuses for the film? If Wolverine was a good film it would've held its own against Star Trek and probably would've been number one again.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I saw Wolverine again today and was the only person in the showing, when last week it was packed, I dont think that bodes well for Wolverine in the UK but we'll see I suppose.

 

[kedrell]

Transformers counts as a comic-book movie and it'll make over 200 million domestic.

Not as far as I am concerned and I think A LOT of people would agree with me on that. It's based on a toy line. At best it's based on a cartoon that itself was based on a toy line. That they eventually made TF comic books after that really doesn't mean it qualifies. If so then Star Wars, Star Trek, Indiana Jones and G.I. Joe are all comic book films as well since they've all been in comic book form at some point. Hell, all of Anne Rice's horror novels have pretty much been in comic book form as well. And even if I granted that TF is a comic book film, it's still in no way a superhero film for sure.

 

[danoyse]

Someone told me that the Trekkies (or Trekkers) had vowed not to see the film for two weeks and one day as some sort of protest. If even a small percentage of them hold to that pact, it means the fanbase isn't included in that opening weekend box office.

There were Harry Potter fans threatening the same thing after WB pushed the new movie's release from November to July - they were going to skip opening weekend so it hurt the box office.

People really do find the most meaningless things to protest.

 

[kedrell]

That's why there is shaping up to be a massive log jam in 2011-2012 for comic book/SH films. If not for the writers strike they could have evened it out more.

Possible, very possible. On a brighter note, this means that there will be even more comic book/superhero movie withdrawl at the cinemas when IM2 comes out and that can only aid it's box office take. The last mega-superhero film prior to it will have been TDK. Lest we not forget that IM1 benefited mightily from having almost no big movies that came out prior to it in 2008. Horton Hears a Who was the lone film to cross 100M between Christmas'07 and May'08. Sometimes timing is everything. Just look at HB2.

 

[Illuminata]

There were Harry Potter fans threatening the same thing after WB pushed the new movie's release from November to July - they were going to skip opening weekend so it hurt the box office.

People really do find the most meaningless things to protest.

I don't find this meaningless at all. I wished more people actually did this more often and stick to their guns. If had more people protesting the box office it would send a loud, clear message to the studios to stop delivering such mindless stupid storyline that has been pumped out lately. Putting aside canon, I want to be entertained. I don't mind if you bend canon as long as it's entertaining, intelligent and the plot is plausible.

Factor in the price of a movie ticket and the recession I think we should be more active in this country as a whole on many things. I think it's rather unfair that the studios feel that we are ignorant enough to accept anything.

Yet, in all fairness we are pretty stupid, look at the stampede of people at KFC over Oprah's free chicken meal.

 

[dark_b]

What disadvantages? Are you making excuses for the film? If Wolverine was a good film it would've held its own against Star Trek and probably would've been number one again.

no matter how good wolverine could be it would not be number 1 for the second week.

its not the problem that its no number one anymore. the problem is the drop.

 

[danoyse]

I don't find this meaningless at all. I wished more people actually did this more often and stick to their guns. If had more people protesting the box office it would send a loud, clear message to the studios to stop delivering such mindless stupid storyline that has been pumped out lately. Putting aside canon, I want to be entertained. I don't mind if you bend canon as long as it's entertaining, intelligent and the plot is plausible.

Factor in the price of a movie ticket and the recession I think we should be more active in this country as a whole on many things. I think it's rather unfair that the studios feel that we are ignorant enough to accept anything.

Yet, in all fairness we are pretty stupid, look at the stampede of people at KFC over Oprah's free chicken meal.

It is meaningless. With all the real injustice in the world, how many people outside of some hardcore fanbase are really going to care that Harry Potter got delayed 6 months? Or are going to wait 2 weeks and a day because the writers changed the Star Trek canon? Hell, if anything more people will show up for opening weekend if they hear there might be less of a crowd to deal with. And it's not going to make a dent in the overall box office because in those cases they're all going to show up to see the movie anyway.

Explain these reasons to people on their way to the theater who are just coming there to be entertained...and do you really think they're going to care? See how many of you get as they pass you by.

And just because people are just coming to be entertained doesn't mean they don't have a clue. I have friends who saw Wolverine - one just got laid off, another is in chemo. If this or any other movie keeps their minds off that other crap for 2 hours, then it's done its job.

You don't want to see the movie? Don't go. There's your protest. But this whole organizational movement to skip the movie on certain days or whatever is just silly in the eyes of everyone else.

 

[04nbod]

What do you think about this from box office mojo?

Meanwhile, the summer's kick-off, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, eroded 69 percent to $26.4 million. That's a steeper decline than the previous picture, X-Men: The Last Stand, and it's also the least attended second weekend of the franchise. In ten days, Wolverine has collected a muscular $129 million. While it trails the first X-Men adjusted for ticket price inflation as well as X2: X-Men United and The Last Stand by wide margins, it would have been unrealistic to expect Wolverine to match the heights of its predecessors, given that it's a prequel that effectively limited its audience to the fan base, unlike Star Trek.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I disagree with Brandon, it's not the first time I have and it won't be the last.

 

[Celestial]

I thought the demographic data suggested that Wolverine has broader appeal than Star Trek.

Here's a different take on why Wolverine had a better opening that Star Trek:
http://blog.newsarama.com/2009/05/12/box-office-battle-wolverine-vs-star-trek/