Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[JKKS085]

650 is an ok number for a suicide squad film lol

thats a great number if 650 million WW is a problem for the DCEU then thats a good problem to have only 9 super hero movies have a higher number that didn't hit 1 billion

The problem is the frontloading of the run. I thought I made that clear.
It has a chance at being the 14th highest grossing cbm of all times domestically while its opening is the 9th biggest opening of all times in the genre. That's your problem right there.

And although it's a Suicide Squad movie (with the presence of the Joker and Batman being heavily marketed), in a landscape where GotG and Deadpool can both gross past 770M WW, please excuse me if I can't rave like a fangirl over another huge opener from DC crawling to 650M ww.

 

[Bruce Malone]

650 is an ok number for a suicide squad film lol

thats a great number if 650 million WW is a problem for the DCEU then thats a good problem to have only 9 super hero movies have a higher number that didn't hit 1 billion

You're talking as if this was a $65 million dollar heist film.

WB spent a lot on this film, money spent on advertising alone had to have equaled what they spent on BvS.

This film will be profitable but only by a bit. WB is not in the business of only making a little profit off of big expenses no studio or business is, and that's exactly been everything they've put out so far with the DCEU.

Ok profits, terrible reviews and mediocre to bad public sentiments.

 

[Predator jp]

I don't think it's going to do gangbuster business in Japan & Germany but that should be enough to clear 650M WW.

around $10m is the realistic number in Japan.

 

[Erzengel]

$300 domestic is nothing to sneeze at. Most studios would sign up for that considering only 63 movies ever have made $300 or more.

I'm not going to argue profit at this time. Personally I think it's in the range of $550M to break even.

Losing China definitely does hurt their bottom line.

I've said this before, but I'm more upset that it's doing well tells WB, look our micromanaging of the final product is working.

I know we have WW coming up and that would be the first look at the re-imagined DCEU but I'm also worried one step forward with WW could be two steps back with JL.

 

[LoganGambit87]

The problem is the frontloading of the run. I thought I made that clear.
It has a chance at being the 14th highest grossing cbm of all times domestically while its opening is the 9th biggest opening of all times in the genre. That's your problem right there.

And although it's a Suicide Squad movie (with the presence of the Joker and Batman being heavily marketed), in a landscape where GotG and Deadpool can both gross past 770M WW, please excuse me if I can't rave like a fangirl over another huge opener from DC crawling to 650M ww.

guardians of the galaxy without china has 676WW so suicide squad will always have an asterisk next to what it could have made since he doesn't have the luxury of having the 2nd biggest market in box office that could of added 90-100 million at the box office

but make n mistake suicide squad is a success

 

[writer0327]

Does anyone know the actual break even number for SS? Some same 2x the budget, some say 4x the budget. Which is it?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Does anyone know the actual break even number for SS? Some same 2x the budget, some say 4x the budget. Which is it?

2x (Production+P&A budget).

SS has a production budget of 175 million which may or may not include the 22 million spent on re-shoots and it probably has around 125 million P&A budget so that would put the break even point for this movie at 600 million assuming that 22 million is included in the production budget.

 

[Kathemy]

Does anyone know the actual break even number for SS? Some same 2x the budget, some say 4x the budget. Which is it?

Two trillion dollars.

 

[Knight-Tale]

600-650m+ is better than GOTG without their chinese box office.
Ultimately we'll see how the movie ends up overall but WB should count this as a success unlike BvS which should have been an easy layup to 1b.

 

[Greenlite]

My highlight of the morning, article from Scott Mendelson

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...e-squad-crossing-500m-worldwide/#3d3b6af77dcb

"So yeah, if I were the Dream Factory, I wouldn’t hesitate to greenlight whatever Margot Robbie-as-Harley Quinn spin-off the actress has in mind. They are going to make a bloody fortune on Halloween costumes this year."

"I don’t know whether or not it will stall at $600 million or take a shot at $650m (it’s all about legs in the next two weeks), but I will still argue that an over/under $600m total for Suicide Squad was as good a result as one could have hoped for. Whatever issues Suicide Squad brings about for the long term health of the DC Films universe are rooted in quality and the way in which it was made. It’s still a huge hit and will be one of Will Smith’s biggest grossers ever.

But putting all that aside for a moment, Suicide Squad was never going to be an $800 million+ blockbuster, and the fact that Deadpool overperformed shouldn’t be held against this title. This actual result for the $175m-budgeted Will Smith/Margot Robbie/Viola Davis/Jared Leto picture, regardless of legs and word-of-mouth, counts as a win for Warner Bros./Time Warner Inc. and the DC Films franchise."

 

[Greenlite]

Two trillion dollars.

EXACTLY. We don't know anything about Hollywood accounting and nothing we read is reliable, therefore it must need 2 trillion dollars to break even.t:

 

[combocaz]

SS is doing fine. People are just reaching failure because it disappointed them.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

600-650m+ is better than GOTG without their chinese box office.
Ultimately we'll see how the movie ends up overall but WB should count this as a success unlike BvS which should have been an easy layup to 1b.

Exactly, even as someone who loved BvS there's no denying that it underperformed at the BO but SS is definitely a big success for WB. Anything over 650 million will make WB execs very happy and give me the sequel I'm looking forward to. t:

 

[Erzengel]

600-650m+ is better than GOTG without their chinese box office.
Ultimately we'll see how the movie ends up overall but WB should count this as a success unlike BvS which should have been an easy layup to 1b.

Not quite, without China, GOTG grossed $677M.

 

[brandeezy89]

You're talking as if this was a $65 million dollar heist film.

WB spent a lot on this film, money spent on advertising alone had to have equaled what they spent on BvS.

This film will be profitable but only by a bit. WB is not in the business of only making a little profit off of big expenses no studio or business is, and that's exactly been everything they've put out so far with the DCEU.

Ok profits, terrible reviews and mediocre to bad public sentiments.

Doesn't matter, still made money back and will probably be the 4th film this year for WB that made money back.

GOTG barely made money back according to their budget or did it? Their budget was 232M without P&A

 

[writer0327]

2x (Production+P&A budget).

SS has a production budget of 175 million which may or may not include the 22 million spent on re-shoots and it probably has around 125 million P&A budget so that would put the break even point for this movie at 600 million assuming that 22 million is included in the production budget.

So when box office numbers are given, does that number indicate 100% the studios take, or does some of that go to the theater?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Doesn't matter, still made money back and will probably be the 4th film this year for WB that made money back.

Did GOTG even make money back? I heard the budget was nearly 300M

GOTG's budget was 233 million and assuming it had a P&A budget of 100 million, that puts it's break even point at 666 million. It's final gross is at 775 million. I would say GOTG is a big hit and Disney made good profit off it.

 

[JKKS085]

guardians of the galaxy without china has 676WW so suicide squad will always have an asterisk next to what it could have made since he doesn't have the luxury of having the 2nd biggest market in box office that could of added 90-100 million at the box office

but make n mistake suicide squad is a success

Yeah I'm not really interested about what could have been. There's a thousand hypothetical scenarios we could be talking about right now, right down down to the asterisk next to what it could have made had it been decently received.

And it's still gonna fall around 30 millions under GotG even if we factor ou China so there's that.

 

[JKKS085]

GOTG's budget was 233 million

No.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Any international numbers for the week?

Movie is at $ 509 WW now I believe.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

So when box office numbers are given, does that number indicate 100% the studios take, or does some of that go to the theater?

I ain't the right person to elaborate on this BO talk but I think usually studio's take home a bigger percentage from the domestic earnings but even that stands at 55-60%. I know that whatever a movie makes in China, the studio still only gets only 25% of the whole thing there. The whole thing is just complicated.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

No.

I read a forbes article that was posted here by someone which clearly stated that one of the execs at Disney confirmed the budget for GOTG is around 233 million. Now it also stated that around 36 million of it had something to do with Tax rebates and frankly I don't know what it means but Disney still had to pay that amount to get the movie made. I could be wrong about this thing so if you know what is the actual stuff, pls do tell.

 

[TheVileOne]

Rebate is an amount of money repaid by way of reduction or refund for what has already been paid or contributed.

So if an electric toothbrush has a rebait offer, you pay the full amount at checkout at a store, and then you send in the barcode and rebate form to get back a partially refunded check of the amount. It's an incentive to buy the item, possibly at a certain store. So even though you paid full price on the item, with the rebate incentive, you get money back on the purchase.

So if the budget was closer to $233 million, then they still got a $36 million rebate on that budget probably for shooting on location in the UK. Certain countries or territories offer nice tax incentives or rebates to give big studios incentive to bring their big productions there, use local workers and talent and bring jobs to the region. It's one reason why a lot of big productions don't want to shoot in SoCal anymore. Because there's very little tax incentive to do so.

 

[TheVileOne]

So when box office numbers are given, does that number indicate 100% the studios take, or does some of that go to the theater?

That's the total number of tickets sold. Not studio take or theater take. It's the total take before any split.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Rebate is an amount of money repaid by way of reduction or refund for what has already been paid or contributed.

So if an electric toothbrush has a rebait offer, you pay the full amount at checkout at a store, and then you send in the barcode and rebate form to get back a partially refunded check of the amount. It's an incentive to buy the item, possibly at a certain store. So even though you paid full price on the item, with the rebate incentive, you get money back on the purchase.

So if the budget was closer to $233 million, then they still got a $36 million rebate on that budget probably for shooting on location in the UK. Certain countries or territories offer nice tax incentives or rebates to give big studios incentive to bring their big productions there, use local workers and talent and bring jobs to the region. It's one reason why a lot of big productions don't want to shoot in SoCal anymore. Because there's very little tax incentive to do so.

Thanks for the info.