Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[Greenlite]

Would be interesting to see how the movie fares in Japan. Could be a surprise package there I feel with its aesthetics and style. Only seeming competition is a live action movie adaptation of a popular anime/manga the following week.

I know Japanese love their 2D animations, so hopefully it doesn't hurt SS too much.

Only 10 m in Japan ? BvS made 16.5 m in Japan.

I've seen figures from 8-16M, so I'm just low balling it, predator jap says 15M, so I believe him, 732M then t:

Bro, you totally butchered my name there.

Lol you've got a tough name

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Weekend numbers from now 11+5.5+3.85+2.1+1.27+4=28M
Weekdays is too hard I'll just go with 4M+2+1.5+1+0.5+2=11M
So that's another 39M to go on top of 283=322M DOM

OS 353M+20+10+5+3+2+1+1=353+42=395M
Japan ~ 10M
Total 405M+

So WW total 727M, I might overdo the DOM numbers but WTH

The OS numbers are easily achievable with respectable drops like you're assuming (the drop off in the last 2 weekends are less than 45%) and with no other big budget action blockbuster on the horizon in the next few weeks.

An interesting thing I'm seeing is that and I'm definitely not smoking some weird funk here, The Legend of Tarzan which is in it's 8th weekend at this point of time, made close to 6 million (I swear I saw the BO was 348.xx million last week and now it's at 354.6 million) over the course of the last week and this weekend alone it grossed around 2 million. I think SS is much better received than LoT and we are predicting only 2-3 million in 8th weekend for SS. It really should do more then, right?

The domestic numbers however are a little too optimistic really, not that I'm complaining. t:

Still I think this might be a better estimate, weekends - 13.5+5+2+1+.5= 22 million and weekdays - 4+1.8+1+.5+1=8.3 million.
Domestic total 283+22+8.3=313.3 million.

 

[Artorias]

Maybe I'm just being paranoid and impatient but WB's silence on the future of the franchise has me a bit worried. Maybe they are just waiting to see where this thing finishes before making announcements, but I would think after week 4, its financial success trajectory is pretty clear to them now to help them determine how to move forward.

Then again, it took Marvel several months to announce GoTG 2 even though we all figured it was a given. I just hope WB doens't wait that long. t:

Jeff Sneider says a sequel is in play.

https://***********/TheInSneider/status/770021865721126913

I think it is a lock, all the major players have multi-picture contracts (Robbie, Smith, Leto and Davis). Probably just a matter of finding the right slot for it since Ayer and Smith have that Netflix movie with Max Landis and a Harley solo may be coming.

It will be interesting if Ayer does direct though, so far he has played nice with all these alternate cut rumours but maybe privately he's thinking different. I wouldn't be opposed to seeing a new director come on board for the sequel.

 

[Greenlite]

The OS numbers are easily achievable with respectable drops like you're assuming (the drop off in the last 2 weekends are less than 45%) and with no other big budget action blockbuster on the horizon in the next few weeks.

An interesting thing I'm seeing is that and I'm definitely not smoking some weird funk here, The Legend of Tarzan which is in it's 8th weekend at this point of time, made close to 6 million (I swear I saw the BO was 348.xx million last week and now it's at 354.6 million) over the course of the last week and this weekend alone it grossed around 2 million. I think SS is much better received than LoT and we are predicting only 2-3 million in 8th weekend for SS. It really should do more then, right?

The domestic numbers however are a little too optimistic really, not that I'm complaining. t:

Still I think this might be a better estimate, weekends - 13.5+5+2+1+.5= 22 million and weekdays - 4+1.8+1+.5+1=8.3 million.
Domestic total 283+22+8.3=313.3 million.

I think the difference between our calculations are that I added 6M at the end based on GOTG having another 9-10M after 9 weeks so I estimated about 60% of it for SS, so 322-6=316 which sounds more reasonable, but really depends on how long SS stays in theaters and how strong other movies are, and how much the possible "ultimate edition" blu ray would affect its home straight.

OS looks like it's gonna be at least 400M no matter what, which is crazy, and if we underestimated it then it could even go much higher, which is truly insane.

If it breaks GOTG bar (WW minus China, even after inflation included), then that popularity and positive press should translate into a welcomed sequel/spin off news.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I think the difference between our calculations are that I added 6M at the end based on GOTG having another 9-10M after 9 weeks so I estimated about 60% of it for SS, so 322-6=316 which sounds more reasonable, but really depends on how long SS stays in theaters and how strong other movies are, and how much the possible "ultimate edition" blu ray would affect its home straight.

OS looks like it's gonna be at least 400M no matter what, which is crazy, and if we underestimated it then it could even go much higher, which is truly insane.

If it breaks GOTG bar (WW minus China, even after inflation included), then that popularity and positive press should translate into a welcomed sequel/spin off news.

GOTG had insane legs and I don't expect SS to achieve anywhere even remotely close to that kind of holding ability at the BO. GOTG was crazy good at the BO.

I mean GOTG grossed 3 million in it's 10th weekend and 1.9 million in it's 11th weekend. It was insane.

I'll keep my fingers crossed though as SS has exceeded my expectations so far. t:

 

[Bats123]

i think it'd be really funny if it finished at 666 million

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

1,05-1,1 Monday.

 

[JOE]

Another single for DC as far as I'm concerned. With BvS they maybe hit a double, but they're still waiting for that home run we all know the DCeU has the potential to hit. I'm hoping Justice League is that for them. I'll watch Wonder Woman next year on a Tuesday when it's cheaper, I'm not paying $16 a ticket for DCeU movies anymore until the Justice League movie comes out.

I'm surprised this movie will fall just short of, or crawl to 700M... They should be counting their blessings.

 

[SuperAl]

are there any other foreign markets SS hasnt opened in? i noticed theres a few countries not listed on BOM.

 

[dc_mos]

are there any other foreign markets SS hasnt opened in? i noticed theres a few countries not listed on BOM.

Japan

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Rubbing it in the face of Predator jp, shame on you guys.

 

[LoganGambit87]

decent Monday its legs are way better than BVS lol

BVS 4th Monday - $650,057
SS 4th Monday - $1,061,144

 

[Blitzkrieg]

decent Monday its legs are way better than BVS lol

BVS 4th Monday - $650,057
SS 4th Monday - $1,061,144

Haha, I predicted exactly 1 million on 4th Monday. t:

 

[Angel0fDeath]

Almost up there with "Man of Steel". Happy for Ayer and everyone involved with the movie.

 

[brandeezy89]

Another single for DC as far as I'm concerned. With BvS they maybe hit a double, but they're still waiting for that home run we all know the DCeU has the potential to hit. I'm hoping Justice League is that for them. I'll watch Wonder Woman next year on a Tuesday when it's cheaper, I'm not paying $16 a ticket for DCeU movies anymore until the Justice League movie comes out.

I'm surprised this movie will fall just short of, or crawl to 700M... They should be counting their blessings.

It's not crawling to 700M, it'll hit it some time next week, it'll probably crawl towards 750M. Besides that, why are you paying $16 anyways for a ticket lol i pay $8 only unless i see IMAX which is understandable

 

[Greenlite]

It's not crawling to 700M, it'll hit it some time next week, it'll probably crawl towards 750M. Besides that, why are you paying $16 anyways for a ticket lol i pay $8 only unless i see IMAX which is understandable

Me and wife watched it for free haha I had enough points in my membership t:

And it's breezing through 700M like you said.

 

[Angel0fDeath]

Pathetic!

Weekend Box Office: Finally, something other than Suicide Squad

Our weeks-long national nightmare of watching worthier movies underperform as Americans gave away their hard-earned dollars on the Moloch-esque sacrificial altar of the Suicide Squad hype machine is over.

http://www.avclub.com/article/weekend-box-office-finally-something-other-suicide-241808?

 

[tanita_mors]

Someone is so salty. It's gonna be even funnier if it by some of that weird Moloch-esque magic gets back to number 1 next weekend.

 

[idiot09]

Ohh the salt,I'm loving it.

 

[harlequinade]

Oh my God that quote

 

[Wildcard]

That title is the exact reason I skipped right past that article when I initially saw it.

 

[ManWithNoName18]

So end predictions around the 700 million mark, must say prior to opening weekend I thought 550-600 would be where SS landed. Although after the first Friday before the drops started I though that we could have seen high 700's and potentially 800 million.


How where your guys' predictions compared to what we're seeing

 

[idiot09]

So end predictions around the 700 million mark, must say prior to opening weekend I thought 550-600 would be where SS landed. Although after the first Friday before the drops started I though that we could have seen high 700's and potentially 800 million.


How where your guys' predictions compared to what we're seeing

With China we could have easily got something in the $750-800M range.

 

[Wildcard]

So end predictions around the 700 million mark, must say prior to opening weekend I thought 550-600 would be where SS landed. Although after the first Friday before the drops started I though that we could have seen high 700's and potentially 800 million.


How where your guys' predictions compared to what we're seeing

My high-end number was $800 million & my low was around $600-$650. It may not hit $800 but at least it should pass $700 million, which is still awesome.

 

[LoganGambit87]

Ohh the salt,I'm loving it.

its hilarious how these bloggers get so salty when a movie they didn't like makes money its like they take it as a personal insult