Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

[lime]

I can tell you as an outsider Cap is gonna have to make the majority of it's cash locally. Fair or not politics will play a part.

That's true. Here in Bulgaria the move is called only ''The First Avenger'' with no Captain America. But that's stupid. It's just a movie.

 

[KangConquers]

It's not just the whole "America" thing. It's the fact that Harry Potter is a beast internationally.

Cap isn't coming out on July 22nd in most markets. It has a staggered release date specifically tailored to avoid Harry Potter.

 

[kedrell]

Yeah, that's true. POTC 4 had 250 millions budget and it was in profit when it hit 500.

Lantern must make 400 WW to have normal winnings. But I doubt it.

That would have been the break even point for GL. But we also know(and this is unusual since we usually don't get this info) that they way over spent on the marketing. Most films of this size spend $50-75M on marketing. GL spent at least $100M. So I'd say they need to reach $450M WW just to break even. And it'll likely come up short of that by $200M which all the sold TV rights and DVD sales & rentals combined will never be able to make up. They might be able to make up half of that. Which will still mean that WB/DC is gonna likely take a $100M loss on this movie, when all is said and done(unless toys & lunchboxes can make that up).

 

[Drizzle]

"One of"

as in one of the many worst reviewed films of the decade. I can only assume the average is 50%
I think a 25% would classify, i could be wrong.

There are way more released both this year and in 2010 that have a less than 15% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

 

[kedrell]

There are way more released both this year and in 2010 that have a less than 15% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

But aren't most of those much smaller films?

 

[Drizzle]

But aren't most of those much smaller films?

Well, if you want to put it that way then yes, GL is the worst reviewed big budget film of the decade so far (we're only a year and a half into the decade).

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Well, if you want to put it that way then yes, GL is the worst reviewed big budget film of the decade so far (we're only a year and a half into the decade).

I'm pretty sure The Last Airbender got even worst reviews.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The funny thing is GL isn't doing anything special in the few overseas markets it's been released in.

Also that drop for Super 8 is good but Paramount is overestimating it again. Still it will come under 50% and that has to be seen as a success in this day and age. I'm thinking more like 19.5 to 20.5mil for the actual. Which isn't 40% but still a good drop and here comes a 100+mil. Here comes another JJ. Abrams hit after Star Trek.

As for GL. I was way wrong with my 68mil prediction, there are no two ways about. The opening is a failure of the highest order because the weekend multiplier shows that the movie is frontloaded and the word of mouth is mixed at best. I wouldn't be suprised with a Hulk style drop in it's second weekend.

I feel bad for Ryan Reynolds because eventhough this dud wasn't his fault (blame the 800 writers and uninterested director) he will get most of the blame despite being the best thing about the film.

First Class had another 50% drop and needed something in the early to mid 40's to make up for last weekend. It's still running behind X-Men and it's third weekend is actually a little worse than X-Men's. It's lucky those international numbers are swell because it would totally be boned without them. It would have been nice for such a good flick to have good legs but good legs never seem to happen to X-Men films so this isn't a surprise.

I find it funny that BridesMaids is going to outdo this huge overhyped 150+mil movies like Green Lantern and First Class. Probably. The little movie that could.

 

[Marvin]

There are way more released both this year and in 2010 that have a less than 15% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

"one of"

and yes, there are plenty of worse films and plenty more worse reviewed films every year, but that doesn't stop the razzie awards from crying for attention every year lol.

 

[KangConquers]

Looking at the figures right now for the 3 superhero movies I see Thor barely clawing it's way past 440 Million (disappointing, as 450-500 Million was once considered a sure thing) and X-Men stopping in the range of 340-350 Million.

Green Lantern might have a little more trouble...I don't see GL breaking 125 Million domestic, and it might do as little as 100 Million foreign. Blackest Night indeed.

 

[rashad]

I'm pretty sure The Last Airbender got even worst reviews.

It did. 6% on RT.

 

[rashad]

I find it funny that BridesMaids is going to outdo this huge overhyped 150+mil movies like Green Lantern and First Class. Probably. The little movie that could.

Bridesmaids definitely sleeper hit of the year. Great for Universal also. Fast Five about to pass $600M worldwide.

 

[Marvin]

Looking at the figures right now for the 3 superhero movies I see Thor barely clawing it's way past 440 Million (disappointing, as 450-500 Million was once considered a sure thing) and X-Men stopping in the range of 340-350 Million.

Green Lantern might have a little more trouble...I don't see GL breaking 125 Million domestic, and it might do as little as 100 Million foreign. Blackest Night indeed.

to be fair this year was all about the second tier heroes.
if next years numbers were like this, that would be interesting.

 

[marvelman2006]

Bridesmaids definitely sleeper hit of the year. Great for Universal also. Fast Five about to pass $600M worldwide.

Thats amazing to me, I tapped out of this series after part 2. It still blows my mind that it has a strong enough fan base.

 

[KangConquers]

to be fair this year was all about the second tier heroes.
if next years numbers were like this, that would be interesting.

We still have Cap, though it has little hope of breaking 400 Million Worldwide. $350 max.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Thor's numbers aren't disappointing but the numbers are more like 360 to 385mil without the 3D ticket price hike. Good numbers for a character like this but the numbers are being overstated on the Thor forums.

X-Men First Class domestic performance is disappointing. With those reviews you'd think the movie would be heading for a 175mil finish after it's low for the franchise opening. Now it looks like it's headed for less than the first film unless a something magical happens in the weeks to come. I wouldn't be surprised to see a late 40% drop this coming weekend. The overseas are good but it's not like it's a mini Pirates or anything. The prospects for a direct sequel look 50/50 right now as far as I'm concerned.

Green Lantern is f**ked. The overseas markets won't even save it.

C.A has had good marketing and the buzz is good, it should do well if all pans out.

Rashad, I am loving that Fast Five performance. It's a monster.

 

[marvelman2006]

Im still shocked x-men didnt do more, It deserved more money but hey what are you gonna do.

 

[Marvin]

Bridesmaids definitely sleeper hit of the year. Great for Universal also. Fast Five about to pass $600M worldwide.

In hindsight, it was just a more entertaining movie to the average audience than most of these superhero movies. I love First Class but I gotta admit it's got it's own genre vibe to it. Five just seems accessible where others aren't...I wonder how thor's doing with the black audience. I guess good.

 

[scifiwolf]

Thats amazing to me, I tapped out of this series after part 2. It still blows my mind that it has a strong enough fan base.

Fast and Furious and Fast Five were exceptionally strong movies, IMO. Even more so when stacked up against 2 Fast 2 Furious and Tokyo Drift. I think that also has something to do with the fact that 4, 5, and the impending 6th were structured to be a trilogy within the series, much in the way that Star Trek II-IV work as a trilogy.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Star Trek II-IV work as a trilogy, but Star Trek III sucks.

 

[flickchick85]

I can tell you as an outsider Cap is gonna have to make the majority of it's cash locally. Fair or not politics will play a part.

I'll admit I am very curious to see how they go about marketing it overseas. I'm expecting to see a lot more footage of The Howling Commandos, Hugo/Red Skull & Peggy in the international marketing.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

It's not just the whole "America" thing. It's the fact that Harry Potter is a beast internationally.

Captain America gets released 2 weeks after Harry Potter in every market except the US and Canada.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Fast and Furious and Fast Five were exceptionally strong movies, IMO. Even more so when stacked up against 2 Fast 2 Furious and Tokyo Drift. I think that also has something to do with the fact that 4, 5, and the impending 6th were structured to be a trilogy within the series, much in the way that Star Trek II-IV work as a trilogy.

Fast and Furious was so boring. I got tired of the racing angle and nearly fell asleep watching it in theaters.

 

[Spideyfan93]

Captain America will be fine, and I'm sure it'll do much better than Thor, as long as its a good film.

And I can see the possibility of Iron Man numbers. I don't personally think so...I'd say 70 to 80 opening weekend...but there's a strong possibility.

 

[Fanticon]

Looking at the figures right now for the 3 superhero movies I see Thor barely clawing it's way past 440 Million (disappointing, as 450-500 Million was once considered a sure thing) and X-Men stopping in the range of 340-350 Million.

Green Lantern might have a little more trouble...I don't see GL breaking 125 Million domestic, and it might do as little as 100 Million foreign. Blackest Night indeed.

I don't see how that's disappointing. It has out-grossed plenty of Marvel properties. Two Hulk movies, two Fantastic Four movies, 3 x-men movies, a couple more not even worth mentioning. So was it Iron Man? No. Was it successful? Thor thinks so and there's still time for it to continue to "claw" it's way up past 450m ww.