Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

[DACrowe]

I'll just leave this here:

Warner Bros. To Pursue ‘Green Lantern’ Sequel

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/warner-bros-pursue-green-lantern-205703

Well that's a shock. Thor gets a sequel because it did well (though not spectacular) and Marvel doesn't have a choice in not using "B-level" superheroes as that's all they have (Spidey and X-Men are never coming back for licensing and I don't see Marvel Studios producing original films anytime soon). XFC will probably get a sequel because Fox is desperate for any kind of franchise film at this point and its positive WOM lays the ground for a potentially bigger sequel (ex. Austin Powers, Twilight, Batman Begins, etc.).

However, GL is straight up flopping. I won't say "bomb," but it opened at least $30 million less than what WB hoped for when they greenlit and started marketing the movie, still $10-$15 million less than what they and almost all analysts and forecasters were projecting and then had a pretty-record size drop in its second weekend (i.e. most people hate the movie and gave it horribly negative WOM). It is even doing poorly overseas where it is flopping in Russia and the UK.


Quite frankly, why would you make a sequel? If WB does not want to get out of the superhero game now that GL failed and audiences have resoundingly rejected it, why not go for The Flash or Wonder Woman? Right now, it is playing like Ang Lee's Hulk at the box office (though even worse when you take in 8 years of inflation and jacked up 3D ticket sales). I just don't see this franchise going anywhere, anytime soon.

 

[KangConquers]

nor is it as bad as AngHulk(though few movies have ever been as reviled as that one).

Has everyone forgotten that AngHulk was moderately critically acclaimed?

 

[KangConquers]

Green Lantern still hasn't crossed the $100 million mark after 2 weeks and the international grosses are very week. This is BS and nothing more than studio spin.

At best, we'll get a TIH esque requel in 5-6 years with a completely new cast.
Still, I think there's incentive to just stick a pillow over this franchise's face and shoot it 3 times.

 

[Electrix]

X-Men: First Class

Domestic: $132,815,000 41.9%
+ Foreign: $184,400,000 58.1%
= Worldwide: $317,215,000

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=xmenfirstclass.htm

First Class sequel looking more likely. It'll gross more internationally than X2 ($192m) and Wolverine ($193m) when it's all said and done.

 

[Marvin]

Geoff Johns did this

 

[Marvin]

X-Men: First Class

Domestic: $132,815,000 41.9%
+ Foreign: $184,400,000 58.1%
= Worldwide: $317,215,000

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=xmenfirstclass.htm

First Class sequel looking more likely. It'll gross more internationally than X2 ($192m) and Wolverine ($193m) when it's all said and done.

makes sense given the cast

 

[DACrowe]

i dont like pOTC4. but it deserves its money. nonoe was tricked into the theater. the general public payed their own money form their pocket. and they wanted to give their money to POTC4.

I love Johnny Depp and actually still love POTC1 (though it was three years after AWE that I could watch it again and wash away the stench and memory those awful sequels)....but while 4 looked like a modest improvement over the last two sequels it still looked....redundant.

Oh well. I have The Rum Diary this year to look forward to.

 

[KangConquers]

X-Men: First Class

Domestic: $132,815,000 41.9%
+ Foreign: $184,400,000 58.1%
= Worldwide: $317,215,000

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=xmenfirstclass.htm

First Class sequel looking more likely. It'll gross more internationally than X2 ($192m) and Wolverine ($193m) when it's all said and done.

The second week performance of First Class put it on track for about $342 M Worldwide. That should be more than enough to ensure a Second Class.

 

[KangConquers]

Geoff Johns did this

So did Martin Campbell.
And Greg Berlanti, Michael Green, Marc Guggenheim and Michael Goldenberg.
And let's just **** on Blake Lively to a bit because she's terrible.

 

[Marvin]

So did Martin Campbell.
And Greg Berlanti, Michael Green, Marc Guggenheim and Michael Goldenberg.
And let's just **** on Blake Lively to a bit because she's terrible.

I was talking about the recent decision.
I blame Berlanti for most of the bad to be honest.

 

[kedrell]

Has everyone forgotten that AngHulk was moderately critically acclaimed?

Well I was refering to the GA's reaction. trip on over to RT and check out the huge disparity between the critical consensus and the audience consensus. Even GL got 20% higher audience rating than Anghulk did and GL's rating is pathetic. IMO, the critics(some of them) got behind Anghulk simply because Ang Lee is a bit of a critical darling.

 

[jmc]

WB have so many markets left to open GL with that they've gotta say something to keep people interested. The sequel talk is BS to try and keep hype going and keep the character in the spotlight for the next 8 weeks.

 

[DACrowe]

The key difference is Ang Lee Hulk was dealing with some really interesting ideas in gaudy superhero garb. You had the repressed memories, Bruce having an Oedipus Complex and the entire relationship between Bruce and his father, along with its contrast between Betty and her father as some dramatically intriguing and meaty stuff played by four great actors (Connolly had just won an Oscar, Bana was an indie darling off of Chopper, and Sam Elliot and Nick Nolte are always interesting to watch).

The problem with that movie is that everything around those themes--the superhero stuff-was terribly conceived by a filmmaker who honestly didn't get it. The comic book-styled editing, the giant poodles, the dad turning into a bubble, etc. just was so bad. Plus a lot of audiences didn't care about the psychodrama with elements of Greek tragedy, so they were bored in between that mediocrity.

GL doesn't have the big artistic ambitions that turned off some of the GA, but has the lack of imagination or depth with its mediocre cookie cutter superhero formula and Hollywood assembly line vibe that will turn off the rest of the audience and all critics.

Another example is SM3 is fresh on RT. I actually agree with most critics that while flawed, it was entertaining and still far more human in its substance with a director who cared about its proceedings than most summer movies (including that year's Pirates 3 and Transformers). However, those flaws which take away from the genre (cheesy dance sequences and an over abundance of tonally uneven humor) turned off many audiences to the movie.

 

[A Necessary Evil]

Well I was refering to the GA's reaction. trip on over to RT and check out the huge disparity between the critical consensus and the audience consensus. Even GL got 20% higher audience rating than Anghulk did and GL's rating is pathetic. IMO, the critics(some of them) got behind Anghulk simply because Ang Lee is a bit of a critical darling.

So,...they liked it because ang makes great movies, and hulk was one of them.

I agree.

The key difference is Ang Lee Hulk was dealing with some really interesting ideas in gaudy superhero garb. You had the repressed memories, Bruce having an Oedipus Complex and the entire relationship between Bruce and his father, along with its contrast between Betty and her father as some dramatically intriguing and meaty stuff played by four great actors (Connolly had just won an Oscar, Bana was an indie darling off of Chopper, and Sam Elliot and Nick Nolte are always interesting to watch).

The problem with that movie is that everything around those themes--the superhero stuff-was terribly conceived by a filmmaker who honestly didn't get it. The comic book-styled editing, the giant poodles, the dad turning into a bubble, etc. just was so bad. Plus a lot of audiences didn't care about the psychodrama with elements of Greek tragedy, so they were bored in between that mediocrity.

GL doesn't have the big artistic ambitions that turned off some of the GA, but has the lack of imagination or depth with its mediocre cookie cutter superhero formula and Hollywood assembly line vibe that will turn off the rest of the audience and all critics.

Another example is SM3 is fresh on RT. I actually agree with most critics that while flawed, it was entertaining and still far more human in its substance with a director who cared about its proceedings than most summer movies (including that year's Pirates 3 and Transformers). However, those flaws which take away from the genre (cheesy dance sequences and an over abundance of tonally uneven humor) turned off many audiences to the movie.

This post.

Is spot on.

Though I was one that enjoyed the movie, flaws and all.

 

[KangConquers]

I for one realize that Ang Hulk is flawed, but I think it has a degree or artistry and heart that many many many many comic book movies lack. That movie had a legitimate soul to it that I think every comic director should shoot for...

If Zak Snyder had that sort of passion for developing characters that Ang Lee does, he'd be invincible.

 

[A Necessary Evil]

You serious?

That scene in the desert where he takes on the tanks ranks in my top ten sequences..

 

[KangConquers]

You serious?

That scene in the desert where he takes on the tanks ranks in my top ten sequences..

But the scene where Talbot dies is maybe the dumbest scene in comic book history...it's a 50/50.

 

[A Necessary Evil]

No way is that the dumbest scene in comic book history, nor anywhere close to it.

We have the entirety of fantastic four 1/2, batman and robin, wolverine origins, and X3 to take those spots.

 

[KangConquers]

No way is that the dumbest scene in comic book history, nor anywhere close to it.

We have the entirety of fantastic four 1/2, batman and robin, wolverine origins, and X3 to take those spots.

And Daredevil on the playground...woohoo

and all of green lantern.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

What about Catwoman and her love interest playing Basketball in Catwoman?

 

[A Necessary Evil]

Yeah that too lol....I forgot about catwoman

Disagree on GL. had its fair share of stupidity, but I enjoy that film.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Has everyone forgotten that AngHulk was moderately critically acclaimed?

Did you forget that audiences tore apart that film and is still widely disliked by people? If you don't believe me, go on imdb or look at the RT user reviews, or in fact go on any user movie site.

Audiences flocked away from that movie.

 

[A Necessary Evil]

Did you forget that audiences tore apart that film and is still widely disliked by people? If you don't believe me, go on imdb or look at the RT user reviews, or in fact go on any user movie site.

Audiences flocked away from that movie.

Actually there has been more love for that movie in the upcoming years.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

^ Not outside of comic book fans.

 

[A Necessary Evil]

Some here and there. Yeah its rare, but in the I love ALH thread, some users have said its better than its made out to be, its a good flick, etc; so forth.