Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

[kedrell]

I'm so past caring about TF just like I am Twilight or POTC or Potter or any of these franchises that mean piss-all to me. If it does well, fine. Just like there'll always be a market for food served at a gas station, there'll always be a market for this stuff.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

It'll make more money tomorrow and Saturday than it did yesterday. I mean who goes to watch a movie on a weekday?

 

[kedrell]

In summer? Kids do.

 

[Marvin]

37.7mil huh? So TF3 still had a very big day but it's skewed because of those 3D tickets. It did have a fairly big drop off from the so-called beloved second film. Which just confirms what I always knew, the second film was disliked by a large amount of people in the states.

A drop off is to be expected from the highs of the second film but this type of drop off in opening day suggests that alot of people didn't love the second film as was constantly claimed on Hype and other messageboards.

Oh well, I'm sure the difference will be made up with the international numbers. People overseas seem to never get tired of franchises and are enamored with 3D more than we are.

Yea I guess you were right, everyone hated it as much as you said now it's bombing...They hated it so much it won't make even half it's money back.

You're right, the numbers are a little skewed, (now tainted) 3D, that's no defense but the first movie didn't have to diffuse it's most high in demand day over two with half the screenings and other hokey stuff happening. I'll wait for the weekend to see how it all goes down, friday usually has a huge increase for these kinds of movies. how many midnight screens were there tues night?

what's even more interesting is what ROTF box office says about the original that everyone around here hated so much.

people take all this stuff way too personally, I still feel for the GL fans, this place used to be a community.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

People knew the movie was coming out it just isn't doing as well as the second film. It's not going to suddenly do 60million today, thats not how the boxoffice works.

I know that people dug the first Transformers movie so pointing that out doesn't even make any sense. If they didn't dig it ROTF wouldn't have opened with so much money? This movie is not going to do as well as the second film did in it's first five days, thats just a fact right now.

Again don't worry you will get another Transformers film because they are still making money off of this horrible series. But it's a lock to not make 400mil like ROTF did.

 

[Marvin]

thurday numbers will be lower

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^Ofcourse they are.

 

[DACrowe]

Terrible movies don't "deserve" to make alot of money. They just do sometimes and I accept that, I don't like it but I accept it.

And nowhere do I imply that the game is rigged as I know that people like watching garbage all the time. You implying that I did say the game is rigged came out of nowhere. You don't have to like my opinion of this franchise and I don't have to like yours.

As I said, don't worry more Transformers movies are going to be made.

People are paying for a bad movie, they are paying for bad movies and thats their right but they have no right to complain about Hollywood's output when they do. A movie can be both fun and actually decent. These films aren't even decent, they are completely inept in every real way. And they aren't even entertaining. Stop using that silly "Lawrence of Arabia" or Godfather or insert classic drama here arguement. I'm expecting a decent freakin movie and so far the Transformers franchise has had nothing but bad films.

First film: Bad to mediocre

Second film: Terrible in every way, one of the worst ever made

Third film: I assume bad because it has the same director of the first two bad movies and the worst screenwriter in the biz.

Forget great, I'm just looking for mildly competent.

Agreed and especially co-signed with that part. I'm sick and tired of people excusing crap or mediocre filmmaking by saying "Well it was never meant to win an Oscar" or "If you go in expecting Casablanca...." type of logic.

A movie doesn't have to be dumb, formulaic, insultingly lazy and offensively stupid to be entertaining. The "you have to shut your brain off" argument holds no sand. The best popcorn movies engage you at both and that is what makes them so delightfully entertaining. Jaws, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Back to the Future, Terminator 2, Jurassic Park, Spider-Man, Iron Man, Pirates 1, etc. Even this year you can watch something like X-Men: First Class or Super 8 and feel engaged by the movie. That is why they're such a pleasure to view. If TF3 is anything like TF2, it will just be explosions, CGI, indistinguishable robots hitting each other and mildly offensive ethnic stereotypes for 2 1/2 hours (or now under 2 hours, so I guess Bay got some of the backlash). I don't get why people who generally despised the last one and realize the first one is pretty boring are so willing to shell out at least $20 for a few tickets when the next one comes rolling by.

 

[Doctor Jones]

If people generally hated TF2, WOM wouldn't have made it last to $400 million.

 

[Marvin]

^Ofcourse they are.

um they always are...

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

The First movie was awesome. The second was kinda boring but the end and the fights made it entertaining. Im going see this in 3d(not paying for 3d though) Saturday. I just want to be entertained while watching a movie and the transformers series does that for me.

 

[DACrowe]

If people generally hated TF2, WOM wouldn't have made it last to $400 million.

Franchise brand loyalty and a general popularity with the first film did that. Granted, I didn't like the first film and only saw the second HBO, but the WOM was poor enough that TF3 is not going to cross $400 million. It won't even cross $350 million, because audiences disliked the last installment. Kind of like the drop between each Pirates movie after the second one crossed $400 million. It will still do boffo and a fourth one will be made, but audiences clearly didn't love the last one if they aren't lining up to make this one break records. An example would be most people disliked Spider-Man 3 (though I enjoyed it myself), but it made mad money its first weekend/week because it was a AAA brand that was coming off a previous installment with great WOM, just like TF2 was several years ago.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

I also expect this film to 30 and 30M Friday and Saturday. I know none of friends saw this movie yet and gonna see it this weekend.

 

[CelticPredator]

Me too. I'll try to not all pissy over people's opinions...but I just disagree. I loved Super 8, and First Class for putting some character into the movies....and I enjoyed Transformers for putting some explosions into the movies.

It's no different then shooting off fireworks on the 4th. They're fun I think...

 

[terry78]

Transformers is that grease filled foodstuff you KNOW you don't need yet eat anyway, that 3rd or 4th drink of alcohol you swear you weren't going to drink, and so on. That explains why the franchise can do what it does.

 

[Marvin]

Agreed and especially co-signed with that part. I'm sick and tired of people excusing crap or mediocre filmmaking by saying "Well it was never meant to win an Oscar" or "If you go in expecting Casablanca...." type of logic.

A movie doesn't have to be dumb, formulaic, insultingly lazy and offensively stupid to be entertaining. The "you have to shut your brain off" argument holds no sand. The best popcorn movies engage you at both and that is what makes them so delightfully entertaining. Jaws, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Back to the Future, Terminator 2, Jurassic Park, Spider-Man, Iron Man, Pirates 1, etc. Even this year you can watch something like X-Men: First Class or Super 8 and feel engaged by the movie. That is why they're such a pleasure to view. If TF3 is anything like TF2, it will just be explosions, CGI, indistinguishable robots hitting each other and mildly offensive ethnic stereotypes for 2 1/2 hours (or now under 2 hours, so I guess Bay got some of the backlash). I don't get why people who generally despised the last one and realize the first one is pretty boring are so willing to shell out at least $20 for a few tickets when the next one comes rolling by.

for the second time I wasn't using that argument what so ever, it was an entirely different point!

but if you must go there then fine.
This movie is dumb

This movie is dumber

Why are they not torn apart for not being insightful character studies or trashed for demanding you hold your intelligence at the door?(honest question). Probably has a little to do with expectations or something hypocritical like that. The journey of the main character in bayformers, especially the most recent has a whole ton more depth than just about anyone in those films, but hey what do I know I actually enjoyed the first TF film alot, I checked my brain at the door years back and i seem to have never had it returned.

This is an ever present issue but it always gets blown out of proportion and wrought into every critique and discussion when a bay movie comes out...didn't the Hangover just come out, I never heard anyone talk about plot or substance when that was making it's money. TF3 comes out and it's again with what's the world coming too, i miss the days of orsen wells..etc

 

[The Shape]

One thing that cannot be denied about the Transformers films is that Bay knows how to bring the action. His action set pieces are unlike anything that has been put on screen, and the 3D in TF3 is especially breathtaking and awesome. No matter how incoherent the film itself is, people will pay to see robots beat the **** out of each other and destroy things in awesome ways. One frame of Prime standing around talking to Shia looks better than anything that was presented in Green Lantern.

The drop off here, box office-wise, should be attributed to a lack of extreme anticipation for the film in an unusually crowded summer.

 

[dark_b]

before we start talking how much money TF3 will and will not make i wonder what number will Boxofficemojo post as the budget?

TF3 has to be around 300 millions. 1 year for filming and post production,3D ,a LOT action,plus big paychecks for Spielberg,Bay and Shia. if Mojo says that its 250 it will be funny.

 

[Marvin]

before we start talking how much money TF3 will and will not make i wonder what number will Boxofficemojo post as the budget?

TF3 has to be around 300 millions. 1 year for filming and post production,3D ,a LOT action,plus big paychecks for Spielberg,Bay and Shia. if Mojo says that its 250 it will be funny.

I heard it cost less than the second.

 

[lime]

My bet is 200-250 budget. Few years ago the 'normal' blockbuster budget was 150. Now it's 200.

 

[dark_b]

I heard it cost less than the second.

this is an insult to human intelligence.

 

[dark_b]

My bet is 200-250 budget. Few years ago the 'normal' blockbuster budget was 150. Now it's 200.

then they started using more action and bow they DO THE MOVIE IN 3D.

 

[CelticPredator]

this is an insult to human intelligence.

****ing how? You just act like you know ****, when you really dont.

The fact it's CHEAPER and has more action is really amazing. The fact Bay did that, is pretty genius.

But no...no one ever praises the guy for creating some of the best action ever shot on film.

 

[rashad]

My bet is 200-250 budget. Few years ago the 'normal' blockbuster budget was 150. Now it's 200.

TF3 budget was $195 million.

 

[CelticPredator]

^ Awesome!