Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[Marvin]

They have the promise and early press of the next film to keep them happy.
If this had happened after TDKR or last year it may have been a different story.

TDKR may give the 3 day a run for it's money. Though I have a feeling wb will pull a BB and give it a 5day release which makes sense for multiple reasons

 

[Liam_H]

They have the promise and early press of the next film to keep them happy.
If this had happened after TDKR or last year it may have been a different story.

TDKR may give the 3 day a run for it's money. Though I have a feeling wb will pull a BB and give it a 5day release which makes sense for multiple reasons

If they believe TDKR has a chance to break the record again, they will keep it at a friday release. Only real reason to have wednesday release is to capitalize on fan rush on wednesday/thursday then have combination of them both on the weekend. And special holidays are different, I'm speaking mainly about regular weekdays and weekends.

Also everyone in the GA, not just fanboys, loved the TDK so people will want to see TDKR no matter what. Releasing it on friday will give it the chance to break the record again.

 

[Bim]

so....how are the Batfans taking this news?

From what i've seen, some think HP's big numbers are due to them going to see TDKR teaser trailer . Thankfully most seem to be taking it well though and common sense is prevailing.

 

[dark_b]

WB is smart with promothing TDKR like its the end of a hgue trilogy. the end of a legend. they will have similar lines like '' it ends this summer''

but i dont think it will be an event movie.

 

[jacobed]

It won't be an event movie like Harry Potter was or how The Dark Knight was or maybe even how The Avengers will be but its going to be huge especially if its good.

 

[Liam_H]

TDKR can be an event film, depending on how WB markets it. Realize that Nolan's Batman film has more appeal to the GA than HP. Its obvious when TDK made over 500 million, something Potter won't come close to. No way Potter has legs similar to TDK. Overseas its a different matter, Potter far surpasses TDK in that category. But domestically Batman is more popular as of right now.

 

[KRIM]

It is way too early to determine whether it will be considered an event movie. WBs marketing certainly is leading to that direction, but the audience will ultimately decide if that is the case.

One thing is for sure, it will be one of the most anticipated sequels a franchise will have, along the lines of Spidey 3. That did huge regardless of the unfavorable reviews and word of mouth. One can only imagine how TDKR will do, with great response heading into its weekend.

 

[Marvin]

If they believe TDKR has a chance to break the record again, they will keep it at a friday release. Only real reason to have wednesday release is to capitalize on fan rush on wednesday/thursday then have combination of them both on the weekend. And special holidays are different, I'm speaking mainly about regular weekdays and weekends.

Also everyone in the GA, not just fanboys, loved the TDK so people will want to see TDKR no matter what. Releasing it on friday will give it the chance to break the record again.

beat a record they already have twice over? (WB)

I think they will be wise to leave it be and just capitalize on the fan rush wed/thus. It's going to be pure tents for 5 days if they pull a 5 day. 3 days are the best for casual audiences, whereas 5 days are the best for fan fare.

Looking at TF2's 5 day I think it would have given TDK a run for it's money for the 3 day weekend. Spiderman used to be the event picture and now they have to start from scratch coming off of a bad film. 4th of july will probably force sony to give it a 5 day so I don't think it will be chasing any records.

I need to see the trailer to be sure though. It may very well look wonderful from the way insiders have been talking.

 

[Liam_H]

beat a record they already have twice over? (WB)

Sure, why not? WB would love to break its own OW record again. Right now it owns the top 2 opening weekends, having the top 3 would sound even better. Everybody knows that within a few years...or even sooner... these records will fall, so why not capitalize on it again. TDKR is the perfect movie to do it with.

 

[Marvin]

TDKR can be an event film, depending on how WB markets it. Realize that Nolan's Batman film has more appeal to the GA than HP. Its obvious when TDK made over 500 million, something Potter won't come close to. No way Potter has legs similar to TDK. Overseas its a different matter, Potter far surpasses TDK in that category. But domestically Batman is more popular as of right now.

that's a good point,
if only heath was still around to reprise his joker role, that would pretty much guarantee it.

Now it's kinda on Hathaway to bring that revisionist recognizable character that the audience wants to see nolan mess with.

 

[Marvin]

Sure, why not? WB would love to break its own OW record again. Right now it owns the top 2 opening weekends, having the top 3 would sound even better. Everybody knows that within a few years...or even sooner... these records will fall, so why not capitalize on it again. TDKR is the perfect movie to do it with.

Cause there are other records to own.

At the end of the day why not own records in different categories as opposed to having one record with your name on it? TDKR is the perfect film to get the 5 day imo. I honestly don't think it can outdo TDK in 3days

 

[Liam_H]

Cause there are other records to own.

At the end of the day why not own records in different categories as opposed to having one record with your name on it? TDKR is the perfect film to get the 5 day imo. I honestly don't think it can outdo TDK in 3days

Yea but opening weekend is always the big one that nabs headline attention. $100 million in one day is also another one and Potter had an outside shot of being the first to do it.

You realize TDK already has the top 5-day record without opening on a wednesday? It did that because the WOM was so good that it dropped very little on monday and tuesday, relative to most blockbusters.

I believe TDKR does have a great chance of beating TDK opening record of 3 days(all depends on how WB handles the marketing in the next year). But I don't think it'll have the same amount of legs, that pushed it to $530+ million.

 

[Fanticon]

Yea but opening weekend is always the big one that nabs headline attention. $100 million in one day is also another one and Potter had an outside shot of being the first to do it.

You realize TDK already has the top 5-day record without opening on a wednesday? It did that because the WOM was so good that it dropped very little on monday and tuesday, relative to most blockbusters.

I believe TDKR does have a great chance of beating TDK opening record of 3 days(all depends on how WB handles the marketing in the next year). But I don't think it'll have the same amount of legs, that pushed it to $530+ million.

i know we're a little early for TDKR B.O. talk but I agree that it won't have the legs that TDK had, i chalk that up to it being a Batman vs. Joker story and that is what is most familiar to general audiences, that and that it was a very well made movie. TDKR could be just as well made, and i have no doubt that Nolan will deliver on all levels but it's Bane and Catwoman and who knows what else. It just won't have the same "it" factor but it'll be a monster hit no question about it, but there are just so many people who don't know who bane is and it'll be hard for anyone to top what ledger did and I think audiences will agree.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Great numbers but it's frontloaded as hell and without the 3D it wouldn't have beat the opening weekend record.

I know I shouldn't bring up real stats because that means that I'm down playing the numbers and that I'm a hater. Now that I've got that line outta the way.

Now, I think that Cap has a shot at being number one, especially if that weekend number is being over estimated by more than a million.

 

[Marvin]

Yea but opening weekend is always the big one that nabs headline attention. $100 million in one day is also another one and Potter had an outside shot of being the first to do it.

You realize TDK already has the top 5-day record without opening on a wednesday? It did that because the WOM was so good that it dropped very little on monday and tuesday, relative to most blockbusters.

I believe TDKR does have a great chance of beating TDK opening record of 3 days(all depends on how WB handles the marketing in the next year). But I don't think it'll have the same amount of legs, that pushed it to $530+ million.

I actually forgot about said film having the 5 day already.

but just barely...and maybe not for long. Most films drop(including potter) over mon-tues. In my city Tuesdays are half off. It would have had a really strong 5 day if it opened on Wednesday.

Considering they already have the 5 day who knows what they will do. I do think it won't out do the previous film in any category outside of opening day possibly. Just imagine this new teaser revealed joker instead of bane?

 

[Marvin]

Great numbers but it's frontloaded as hell and without the 3D it wouldn't have beat the opening weekend record.

I know I shouldn't bring up real stats because that means that I'm down playing the numbers and that I'm a hater. Now that I've got that line outta the way.

Now, I think that Cap has a shot at being number one, especially if that weekend number is being over estimated by more than a million.

I love your honestly lol.

I still think if cap dethrones "the biggest movie ever" in it's second week that would be quite the sting.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Thing is a lot of people underestimated Potter this weekend with very few saying it would best the opening weekend record.

Who is to say they're still doing so and this last installment bucks the trend (based on the glowing reviews, word-of-mouth and continued reports of sell-out screenings all day) and holds well next weekend? Either or, it's going to win the year domestically and worldwide at this point. That much shouldn't be in doubt.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I love your honestly lol.

I still think if cap dethrones "the biggest movie ever" in it's second week that would be quite the sting.

WB will just cry into their piles of money. Listen the movie should still 320 to 360mil and well over 1bil worldwide and be a massive success. But it would be interesting and strange if it couldn't hold on to the the second weekend after a record opening but thus is the nature of frontloading. People laugh at Twilight for being fronloaded (eventhough it doesn't matter because the movies are huge hits) but I don't think that this movie will get the same treatment. Hell, it already has the worst friday to saturday drop on record.

And I'm not saying that Cap is a lock to be number one, for all I know Cap could underperform next weekend and Potter could not drop as harshly as it's looking to drop. I'm just saying that Cap has a fair shot after the record breaking movie couldn't even double it's 92mil day over the weekend.

When I said that Cap had no chance yesterday, I was working under the idea that Potter would at least hit 180mil.

 

[PWN3R]

Saw it for the second time today (planning on going again) and it dawned on me. I still wanted Harry to end up with Luna. I know this goes against the books, and the fan out cry would likely be insane, BUT their chemistry and friendship in the films appears more believable than Harry's interactions with Ginny.

Eh, I know most of you will dislike me saying that, but Luna works with Harry. Fan fiction here I come!

 

[Liam_H]

Saw it for the second time today (planning on going again) and it dawned on me. I still wanted Harry to end up with Luna. I know this goes against the books, and the fan out cry would likely be insane, BUT their chemistry and friendship in the films appears more believable than Harry's interactions with Ginny.

Eh, I know most of you will dislike me saying that, but Luna works with Harry. Fan fiction here I come!

No one is going to dislike you (at least not me) because I am an avid Harry/Hermione supporter. I have to argue Dan and Emma have far greater chemistry than anyone in the movies. Harry and Luna had something after book/movie 5, it was a nice introduction. Something to build on if JK Rowling went that way. To me Ginny has so little substance to her, even after she got with Harry.

 

[PWN3R]

No one is going to dislike you (at least not me) because I am an avid Harry/Hermione supporter. I have to argue Dan and Emma have far greater chemistry than anyone in the movies. Harry and Luna had something after book/movie 5, it was a nice introduction. Something to build on if JK Rowling went that way. To me Ginny has so little substance to her, even after she got with Harry.

Cool to see that other people feel that way about Ginny. She's just...there.

And holy balls, I thought I was posting this in the HP thread. Sorry.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's funny people always under predict Potter's opening weekend and overpredict it's legs.

 

[ALP]

Batman/Joker is the most iconic adversary in comic book history. You guys do realize that it took Batman nearly 20 years to beat its own record! Batman'89 was THE highest grossing Batman movie for nearly two decades. Only another Batman/Joker showdown topped it. And it will probably be the same next time as well. TDKR won't surpass Potter's new weekend record for two reasons: No Joker, No 3D.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think that TDKR's can open with the record but I don't see it making over 533mil. The fact is, although Catwoman is hugely popular, The Joker is far more popular than her. I'm thinking 475mil at best for it's total.

 

[Liam_H]

Batman/Joker is the most iconic adversary in comic book history. You guys do realize that it took Batman nearly 20 years to beat its own record! Batman'89 was THE highest grossing Batman movie for nearly two decades. Only another Batman/Joker showdown topped it. And it will probably be the same next time as well. TDKR won't surpass Potter's new weekend record for two reasons: No Joker, No 3D.

I don't agree with that it won't happen, there is a chance. SM3 opened with $151 million due to how well received that first two in the trilogy was. Also it was marketed very well. TDKR have two great films that is also very well received by the GA, maybe even more so than the first two spider-man movies.

Plus if estimates hold, Potter only made $168 million, beating TDK by about $10 million. Would it really be that difficult for TDKR to surpass that based on the good will of the previous two movies and you factor in inflation. Nolan's bat films have more appeal to the GA than Potter does as evidenced by the legs. It depends on how WB handles the marketing for this film, they have to sell that Bane and Catwoman can be interesting (hopefully people won't keep thinking Bane is just some brute due to B&R).